Tips for Tikay

[DungBeetle]

I think anyone who bats within first 10 overs is fine to be honest.  Openers have more powerplay, but are more at risk of new ball.  You do want them to have enough time to score 200 if you pick golden though imo.

[TightEnd]

Thanks guys, good info.

One question though, does it not make more sense to always pick openers with the mandatory power play first 10 overs? Or will this usually be offset by the openers always facing the sharp end of the bowling attack?

exactly

they get to face the new ball. this offers risks (it might swing or move) but survive that and they obviously have the most overs to bat

one of the reasons i like the likes of root and williamson in 50 ups is the techniques are test match techniques so if it is a bit tricky they can hopefully ride the new ball and at number 3 now they are in early enough to have plenty of overs

someone like roy (and to a far lesser extent hales, mccullum etc) is a one day basher, hasn't got watertight technique so its a bit more boom and bust

[DMorgan]

Plumped for McCullum in the end, gogogo

[DungBeetle]

Nice start!

[DungBeetle]

what was buy price?  16 or so?

[DMorgan]

yeah 16

[Chompy]

£270 on Ryan Moore to be top Royal Ascot jockey, 4-9 WH, BFSB or Boylolole. Should be half that price at best.

Ryan is going to have to have a stinker in order for the others to get close, or one of the others would have to have a stellar week.

Was thinking of breaking the TfT wage structure and reccing £900 but will stick with £270 to win £120.

[TightEnd]

£270 on Ryan Moore to be top Royal Ascot jockey, 4-9 WH, BFSB or Boylolole. Should be half that price at best.

Ryan is going to have to have a stinker in order for the others to get close, or one of the others would have to have a stellar week.

Was thinking of breaking the TfT wage structure and reccing £900 but will stick with £270 to win £120.

How much?!

i mean, um, oh what have i done?

16 Jun 2015 - Royal Ascot Top Jockey - Outright

Ryan Moore @ 4/9

Stake : £270.00
Estimated Returns : £
390.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001340/F

[Tal]

Is there any merit in laying Frankie's horses at Ascot? Pretty much en bloc: is he ever going to be overpriced? I presume someone on here has done that in the past?

[Ironside]

Is there any merit in laying Frankie's horses at Ascot? Pretty much en bloc: is he ever going to be overpriced? I presume someone on here has done that in the past?

yeah laid him in 7 races one year, what a mistake to make.

OK maybe I didn't but since then would be ideal to lay him in any TV race imho with all the housewives and bus drivers money going on him

[DungBeetle]

I know it's early to be thinking of next year's football, but 2 teams I think will go off a lot shorter in the championship are:

Sheff Weds 22-1 (Boyle/Coral)
Brighton 33-1 (999/unibet/32Red)

Wednesday have just sacked Gray so I imagine they will be going for a bigger name appointment and have money to spend.  Brighton have a full pre-season under Hughton and always have reasonable resource due to their high attendances - I'd expect them to have a clear out as well after a wretched run last time out.

What really drives this is I'm a bit non-plussed by most of the teams at the top of the market.  I still like Derby, but for me Hull, Burnley, Wolves, Forest and QPR are all HIGHLY opposable at their prices.  Boro will have to deal with the playoff final defeat syndrome (see Derby 2015, Watford 2014) and they won't have Bamford.  Last year the top 2 in Bournemouth and Watford were fancy prices in early summer.

We are speculating that they build wisely over the summer, but I think the selections might go off 10-1 and 16-1 respectively.    

I'm just throwing it out there for discussion, and you can't eat value but I like a book of:

£20 Sheff Wed to win league at 22-1
£10 Brighton to win league at 33-1
£50 Sheff Wed to be promoted at 8-1
£20 Brighton to be promoted at 10-1

I know there are a few Owl/Seagull fans on here so perhaps they can tell me if my confidence is misguided!

[DungBeetle]

I also like Brisol City next year, but they seem short enough at the moment.

[Doobs]

Is there any merit in laying Frankie's horses at Ascot? Pretty much en bloc: is he ever going to be overpriced? I presume someone on here has done that in the past?

yeah laid him in 7 races one year, what a mistake to make.

OK maybe I didn't but since then would be ideal to lay him in any TV race imho with all the housewives and bus drivers money going on him

We are laying on Betfair and not sure we can be positive that bookies prices = Betfair prices and we lose 5% laying on Betfair.

https://www.flatstats.co.uk/horseracing/index.php?cmd=article&id=171

Here we see backing Frankie at bookies SP we lose 6% or so.   So betting at Betfair Prices we are going to lose less before commission. 

Maybe Ascot is special, and he starts shorter there, but don't think there can be any mileage in this.

[Tal]

Is there any merit in laying Frankie's horses at Ascot? Pretty much en bloc: is he ever going to be overpriced? I presume someone on here has done that in the past?

yeah laid him in 7 races one year, what a mistake to make.

OK maybe I didn't but since then would be ideal to lay him in any TV race imho with all the housewives and bus drivers money going on him

We are laying on Betfair and not sure we can be positive that bookies prices = Betfair prices and we lose 5% laying on Betfair.

https://www.flatstats.co.uk/horseracing/index.php?cmd=article&id=171

Here we see backing Frankie at bookies SP we lose 6% or so.   So betting at Betfair Prices we are going to lose less before commission. 

Maybe Ascot is special, and he starts shorter there, but don't think there can be any mileage in this.

Fair enough. Seemed worth a question. Perhaps there's a little bit of an inflation of prices of horses around him if he's on the favourite, but that's a case by case job, I imagine.

Shouldn't you be in bed?

[aaron1867]

I know it's early to be thinking of next year's football, but 2 teams I think will go off a lot shorter in the championship are:

Sheff Weds 22-1 (Boyle/Coral)
Brighton 33-1 (999/unibet/32Red)

Wednesday have just sacked Gray so I imagine they will be going for a bigger name appointment and have money to spend.  Brighton have a full pre-season under Hughton and always have reasonable resource due to their high attendances - I'd expect them to have a clear out as well after a wretched run last time out.

What really drives this is I'm a bit non-plussed by most of the teams at the top of the market.  I still like Derby, but for me Hull, Burnley, Wolves, Forest and QPR are all HIGHLY opposable at their prices.  Boro will have to deal with the playoff final defeat syndrome (see Derby 2015, Watford 2014) and they won't have Bamford.  Last year the top 2 in Bournemouth and Watford were fancy prices in early summer.

We are speculating that they build wisely over the summer, but I think the selections might go off 10-1 and 16-1 respectively.    

I'm just throwing it out there for discussion, and you can't eat value but I like a book of:

£20 Sheff Wed to win league at 22-1
£10 Brighton to win league at 33-1
£50 Sheff Wed to be promoted at 8-1
£20 Brighton to be promoted at 10-1

I know there are a few Owl/Seagull fans on here so perhaps they can tell me if my confidence is misguided!

I can't work out our chances and our next manager, we had plenty of time to sack gray & just decide after a month, that now is the best time. I expect us to make a big name appointment though and therefore I can't see 22's being around, if let's say we appoint Sam. We did let a few players go that some of us thought we should have kept also.

I can't understand Forest odds though, have they not got some sort of embargo over them?