Tips for Tikay

[baldock92]

Surely Stoke have to be value at 17/10 this weekend at home to Bournemouth??

I was going to post this myself. Definitely value, even if they aren't playing to their best, should be 6/5ish at highest IMO.

[TightEnd]

Surely Stoke have to be value at 17/10 this weekend at home to Bournemouth??

I was going to post this myself. Definitely value, even if they aren't playing to their best, should be 6/5ish at highest IMO.

why?

missing shawcross badly

bournemouth have goals in the team, playing much more cohesively than stoke

i know stoke are in a bit of a false position but the days where there will be a good thing at home against most sides are at least three quarters of a season gone aren't they?

[TightEnd]

Is martial the real deal? 17.0 with coral for top scorer with1/4 ew top 4 other main bookies have him down at 13.0

views on this please

3 goals in 2 games

rooney played in behind him at southampton, suggests he might not get rotated out that often?

16/1 is a big price isn't it with so many of last season's goalscorers out of nick..kane/costa etc

[TightEnd]

i wouldn't normally emphasise the impact of injuries but the NFC East in the NFL is an interesting betting heat

Dallas are 2-0 but now have to play 8 weeks plus without romo and bryant. the hope will be a decent looking defense will keep them competitive until the offense has its scoring potential again but i don't see how they win games from behind against the falcons (week 3) the patriots (week 4) and onwards.

the Eagles have looked horrible in three halves out of four this season, the offensive line in particular looks poor in the interior, meaning running the ball is difficult. front 7 of the defense is good, secondary can't stop much though

the giants have thrown the first two games of the season away. bad offensive line, defense isn't going to stop much. obviously odell beckham is going to be great, but they've struggled to get him the ball

then the redskins.

they are beginning to for an identity for the first time in several years. the defensive front seven has been built by the same guy who put the seattle and 49er rosters together in 2010-13.

the offense isn't all singing all dancing but the OL is really good (the hire of bill callahan the dallas ol coach was very significant in the off-season)

reading through reports from last night

"Jay Gruden’s team is playing good defense, and without question has the best running game in the division, a job-share between Alfred Morris and Matt Jones. A week after incumbent Morris had 25 rushes to rookie third-rounder Jones’ six, Gruden called Jones’ number 19 times and Morris’ 18 in the decisive win over the Rams. Jones had a workmanlike 123 rushing yards. After two weeks, Jones and Morris have combined to run for 331 yards. “There will be some games where it may not happen like that,” Gruden said Sunday. “Our plan is to keep both of them fresh. I don’t really care who is in there. In pro football, I think that is the blueprint for most successful teams. We have a young quarterback. We don’t want to throw it 50 times.” Working so far. Kirk Cousins is a 76% passer after two weeks. "

i went to have a look at the highlights, the two running backs were runnign through holes smoking cigars and wearing cravats, and the rams are decent front seven

a strong defense and a good running game in a weak division?

and they are still 7/1 outsiders of 4 to won it

the redskins feel like a bet to me

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/nfc-east/winner

[tikay]

^^^^

I was thinking along identical lines.

Let's do it, unless any other NFL experts disagree. *

* By definition, an NFL Expert is one who is still in the LMS

[Graham C]

There's a betbright link in that odds checker link that says Redskins @ 25/1!

[Ironside]

Yeah they were 25-1 before yesterday everywhere

But it's a stale price you won't get on or if you do you won't get paid

[DungBeetle]

Tighty - with regard to the Redskins, Sporting Index have indicies for each divsion.

They allocate 50 points for first, 25 points for second and 10 points for third.

Before yesterday's games Skins were available to buy at 7.

So you lose 7 points if they come 4th, win 3 points for 3rd etc

Obviously they will be higher when the markets re-open but might be worth us having a look at it when it comes out.  They will still be the dogs of the 4 teams but it might be a nice way to get with them where you still get a chunky win if you are nearly correct and they come in 2nd.

Will let you know when market is live again - probably on Weds/Thursday.

If I were to guess I'd say you'd be able to buy now at 13 or 14 following the Skins win plus the Dallas injuries.

[Stopsleyhatter]

i wouldn't normally emphasise the impact of injuries but the NFC East in the NFL is an interesting betting heat

Dallas are 2-0 but now have to play 8 weeks plus without romo and bryant. the hope will be a decent looking defense will keep them competitive until the offense has its scoring potential again but i don't see how they win games from behind against the falcons (week 3) the patriots (week 4) and onwards.

the Eagles have looked horrible in three halves out of four this season, the offensive line in particular looks poor in the interior, meaning running the ball is difficult. front 7 of the defense is good, secondary can't stop much though

the giants have thrown the first two games of the season away. bad offensive line, defense isn't going to stop much. obviously odell beckham is going to be great, but they've struggled to get him the ball

then the redskins.

they are beginning to for an identity for the first time in several years. the defensive front seven has been built by the same guy who put the seattle and 49er rosters together in 2010-13.

the offense isn't all singing all dancing but the OL is really good (the hire of bill callahan the dallas ol coach was very significant in the off-season)

reading through reports from last night

"Jay Gruden’s team is playing good defense, and without question has the best running game in the division, a job-share between Alfred Morris and Matt Jones. A week after incumbent Morris had 25 rushes to rookie third-rounder Jones’ six, Gruden called Jones’ number 19 times and Morris’ 18 in the decisive win over the Rams. Jones had a workmanlike 123 rushing yards. After two weeks, Jones and Morris have combined to run for 331 yards. “There will be some games where it may not happen like that,” Gruden said Sunday. “Our plan is to keep both of them fresh. I don’t really care who is in there. In pro football, I think that is the blueprint for most successful teams. We have a young quarterback. We don’t want to throw it 50 times.” Working so far. Kirk Cousins is a 76% passer after two weeks. "

i went to have a look at the highlights, the two running backs were runnign through holes smoking cigars and wearing cravats, and the rams are decent front seven

a strong defense and a good running game in a weak division?

and they are still 7/1 outsiders of 4 to won it

the redskins feel like a bet to me

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/nfc-east/winner

Love the bet at 7/1 think Flowers is injured at left tackle for the Giants and Newhouse is awful at right tackle.Seems a good sweat for the thread.

[TightEnd]

Washington Redskins NFC East Winner
7/1
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £160.00


we can check the spreads later in the week

[Ironside]

Is martial the real deal? 17.0 with coral for top scorer with1/4 ew top 4 other main bookies have him down at 13.0

views on this please

3 goals in 2 games

rooney played in behind him at southampton, suggests he might not get rotated out that often?

16/1 is a big price isn't it with so many of last season's goalscorers out of nick..kane/costa etc

if we dont get any negatives can i suggest £5 ew

[Peter-27]

Peter-27 - What's the deal with the Lotus total finishers, the results say that Grosjean did not finish but I can see he's still got an official "finishing position" in the race?

Drivers who complete 90% race distance are classified in the results.

Peter love the enthusiasm and the knowledge

Keep it coming

Hehe, thank you very much 

-£40 on bets we could do this weekend for the F1, limited by under-staking by necessity

Winners

£30 Vettel pole
£30 vettel to podium, despite his failure to finish 3rd
£30 Perez wins his group
£30 Bottas top six

Losers

-£60 Rosberg e/w
-£10 kvyat win
-£20 kvyat podium
-£10 ericsson points
-£20 maldonado to reach Q3
-£20 Hulk top six
-£20 Perez top six

Argh, very frustrating, I personally made a profit of £133.52 ...

Why not just offer to put the thread bets on with bwin yourself?  Seems like you are one of the few who can get on and it is only an extra tenner or so each time. 

I could do that, I thought only certain trusted people do this for the thread though?

Hmmm, isn't it possible to just create a second account using a friends details in order to have another clean account?

Well you should not feel obliged to Peter.

I'll explain how that system works as to "trust" though.

There are two systems in place.

1) I send the amount due across by Bank Transfer BEFORE the event takes place. This is not always possible, of course. Getting that sorted between, say, Q2 & Q3 would be nigh on impossible.  As to payments back to me, I trust most regulars here, & have not been turned over by any of them. If they do, they do - it would not likely be more than £50 or £100 in most cases, & if they do, they do. They'll only get away with it once.

2) The more usual method is to settle up at the end of each month. We do that with numerous regulars here. They will all confirm that I've never knocked any of them (yet) & none of them have pulled a fast one on me. In many cases, given the sums are relatively small (almost always under £100), if Fred is owed cash at month's end by a regular "putter-oner", I suggest they keep the cash as a float for future bets. 5 or 6 of the regulars do this. Marky, for example, keeps a "Fred Ledger" for us, & we just settle up when he sends me a note. Sonour & I settle up religiously, always 1st of the month. Chompy & I settle up when he gets the arse. I can think of 5 or 6 others who do that on a lesser scale. 

Finally, please remember that in "putting on" for Fred, if you are a winning punter, you are hastening the day when your Accounts might get Restricted, so be careful with it. I'd be very uncomfy if you placed bets for Fred & ended yup getting Restricted. 

Thanks for the information. Your last point about accounts getting restricted sooner would be my hesitation, but I'm basically happy to put bets on for the thread if the need arises.

[Chompy]

Big night for our top USA CBB bet tomorrow, with the three remaining Yanks all up for eviction (two of four will be getting the boot).

If things go as the market suggests, we'll be a winner this time tomorrow. Jenna is 1-5 to be first out, and Janice Dickinson would be an odds-on poke to be following her through the door.

Austin the only one of the four up for evicto to be voted in the top four last Friday.

[TightEnd]

Japanese GP this weekend

- last year Merc qualified 1,2

- last year, in difficult weather that is once again forecast for this weekend, Merc 1 and 2 won the race by 30 seconds

- On non-street circuits where the power advantage of the Merc relative to the field is not compromised, we should see a reversion this weekend to a more usual qualification and race pattern?

eg merc ahead of ferrari, williams once again ahead of redbull

- Why then can we back Hamilton at 10/11 for this race?

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/japanese-grand-prix/winner

three weeks ago he was 1/2 for Monza before the race weekend opened and whilst suzuka isn't as power hungry as monza is, its more "normalised" conditions than a street circuit with high barriers at night when mercedes couldn't sort out their tyres and aero.

there was nothing in the hamilton retirement that was engine related in the broken clamp, so he goes to suzuka with the upgraded package and an engine a race and a half old.

isnt 10/11 (negative) recency bias gone mad?

 

[TightEnd]

aston villa v birmingham tonight in the league cup

this season the following teams have played birmingham at home in the league

Burnley

Ipswich

 and MK Dons

prices they went off at are as follows

Burnley 2.00, Ipswich 2.06 and MK Dons 2.11

Aston Villa are 1.95 to win tonight


Having lost to WBA last weekend, the word is little rotation, need to win the game and the fans would go nuts if they went at a big local derby half hearted

So, at nearly even money are Villa that bad, Birmingham that good (lost only one game this season, rowett getting plaudits, demari gray looks excellent etc etc) or both?

shouldn't we be backing Villa?