Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

Sunny with some cloud now at chez Canterbury

I know you promised us the low down on whats wrong. I hope it wasn't over celebrating your 66-1 winner?!
[/quote

Wish it was ! Will save that post for when I'm out. Hard to type tof much at present

[DropTheHammer]

I would like Kent to get 6 of them here as I feel they have a more explosive batting line up, and the advantage of being at home.

[Karabiner]

I've been out all day but just seen the golf scores from France.

Was there a draw bias in which the afternoon players got the short straw?

[Peter-27]

Peter27

you will no doubt be along with Austrian GP and Formula E London stuff for this weekend


this remains unmatched

22-Jun-16
12:01:55    F1 Outrights 2016
Ferrari - Constructors Championship 2016
Betfair Bet ID 1:70149798680    Back   80.00    10.00    --
   790.00
   Unmatched

let me know if you want to change anything before the action resumes

I'm always hiding under a rock, until it's a motorsport weekend

Let's do Formula E first. It's the season finale this weekend in London. There are two race weekends for this event; one on Saturday, one on Sunday.

TFT is on Buemi for the championship with £40 at 5/4. TFT must have been limited as I personally have £333.33 on at 6/4. Anyhow, the championship is much closer than expected, primarily due to Sebastien's mistakes. Regardless of whether he takes the title or not, this has been an extremely poor season for him in terms of performance.

Current standings:

1) di Grassi (141 pts)
2) Buemi (140 pts)
3) Bird (82 pts)

With 60 points available this weekend, realistically, Sam Bird is out of contention. As for di Grassi and Buemi, the title winner will be whoever has two clean qualifying and race sessions. At this stage, it's basically a coin flip.

Either way, I like two bets here:

Race Winner - Sam Bird @ 8/1 with Brokes. Price is higher than it should be because di Grassi and Buemi are going for the title - I don't see that as hugely relevant though. Sam Bird was quick at this race last season, and did actually win race two. Suggest £10.

Race Winner - Jerome d'Ambrosio @ 16/1 with Brokes. Jerome was not only quick last season (2 x 2nd places), but consistent too. His price should be more like 10/1. Suggest £5 EW (1-2 1/3).

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-e/london-eprix/winner

Note: These two bets above are for race one, on the Saturday.

Meanwhile, the Austrian GP is this weekend too

Suggestions as follows:

Race Winner - Lewis Hamilton @ 27/20 on the exchange (anything over EVS is fine). I was going to suggest Nico at the higher price. However, the prediction of rain all weekend does give Lewis the edge between the two drivers. Over EVS is a bit of a crazy price, even whilst not knowing how Ferrari or Red Bull will show up. Suggest £50 to take advantage.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/austrian-grand-prix/winner

Podium Finish - Max Verstappen @ 4/1 with Beewin (7/2 with others is okay too). Max historically runs very well on this circuit. His talent, combined with the wet weather, makes this a value spot. Suggest £15.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/austrian-grand-prix/top-3-finish

Top Six Finish - Sergio Perez @ 5/4 with paddy/betfayre/exchange & Nico Hulkenberg @ 2/1 with Viktor and Betaway. Another track that should suit the Force India's, and the drivers too for that matter. Suggest £20 on both.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/austrian-grand-prix/top-6-finish

Points Finish - Carlos Sainz @ EVS with various. No idea why this is EVS given his speed of late. Suggest £25.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/austrian-grand-prix/points-finish

Safety Car? - No @ 6/5 with Beewin (EVS elsewhere is fine). I really like this bet. With large run off areas, we'll only see a safety car due to a pile-up, most other incidents such as debris on track will be covered by the VSC (which doesn't count according to the rules on most sites, but please double check). Rain is not expected to be THAT bad as to induce a safety car. Suggest £20.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/austrian-grand-prix/safety-car

Tighty - time to cancel the unmatched exchange position. We can re-review post-Austria.

[Doobs]

Venus Williams in to 16/5 for quarter 4 despite hobbling to be victory today.

[arbboy]

If anyone got involved in the third quarter men's draw at Wimbledon we were discussing last week one of the joint favs went out today (thiem).  Del Potro plays the other joint fav wawrinka tomorrow in a cracking looking match for a second round affair.

[vegaslover]

Sussex abysmal as usual, especially when chasing.
If Sussex ever bowl first in one day, get on the other team.

[nellberg]

Just in from graft, do we have a scoop possibility on the sixes in the cpl tonight?

[MereNovice]

June 2016 Figures

Closed bets: 56
Amount wagered: £1,856.76
Profit/loss: £989.05
ROI: 53.27%

Number of "sports" bet on: 7
Most popular: Horses (19), MotorSport (15), Tennis (9), Cricket (5)
Most profitable: MotorSport (£535.00), Tennis (£506.05), Golf (£111.25), Cricket (£13.00)
Least profitable: Boxing (-£116.25), Football (-£55.00), Horses (-£5.00)

Number of tipsters: 16 including 1 new tipster.


Going forward.

Open bets: 25
Amount staked: £1,389.07



Overall statistics (since February 2012)

Total closed bets: 5,827
Amount wagered: £175,272.81
Profit/loss: £12,389.52
ROI: 7.07%

Number of "sports" bet on: 30
Most popular:  Horses (1,356), Football (1,342), Golf (429), Cricket (346).

Most and least profitable sports (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
        
Sport               Profit  Amt Bet       ROI   No.
Football   5,911.83   42,193.22   14.01   1,338
Horses   2,200.24   43,886.54   5.01   1,352
Misc.   1,970.50   7,924.39   24.87   207
...
RU   -392.19   4,803.29   -8.17   255
Dogs   -414.41   4,138.96   -10.01   143
Boxing   -458.01   3,438.92   -13.32   87


The complete list is here:
http://bit.ly/1SVMlbq


Total number of tipsters: 191


Number of different bookies/exchanges/agents: 64

Most and least profitable bookies (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
        
Bookie          Profit     Amt Bet   ROI     No.
Ladbrokes      3,274.87   20,981.59   15.61   789
Bwin      3,042.33   4,947.86   61.49   132
WilliamHill      2,700.23   32,258.91   8.37   1,053
...
marky147   Agent   -686.00   1,077.00   -63.70   37
BetDaq      -977.60   1,192.50   -81.98   6
BetFred      -1,573.13   14,309.23   -10.99   480


The complete list is here:
http://bit.ly/21mulr3


Archived bets:

2015   http://bit.ly/1rqbcrT

2014  http://bit.ly/1UovMUW

Pre-2014  http://bit.ly/1QIg2Fg


Tips for Tikay went over £12K in profit for the first time.

[hummuspie]

went back to check bencic

now 33-1 best

in serena's half i think we'll leave that but thanks anyway, good idea keep them coming

a fun player to watch

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wimbledon/womens/winner

I think she was playing when the post went up or around that time anyway. 

yeah i put it up towards the end of the first set, think the price lasted till around half hour after the match finished

[Tal]

Top Mereing, Mere.

ROI: 53.27%

Blimey! I think that might even be slightly over Tikay's ROI in the Big O game at the Rio.

[DropTheHammer]

Just in from graft, do we have a scoop possibility on the sixes in the cpl tonight?

I didn't find any...

...but there is one in tonight's Sussex v Middx game:
Over 9.5 @ Cs    5/6
Under 12 @ 364  1.83

An ROI of -8.42% but with two for the scoop it's a bet.

[MereNovice]

Tennis: Venus Williams v Daria Kasatkina
http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wimbledon/womens/venus-williams-v-daria-kasatkina/winner

Recommend £28 on Daria Kasatkina at 2.75

I apologise for putting this up as a bet as it seems to go against the general ethos of TfT as we already have a bet on Venus Williams to win her quarter.

However, Venus is definitely injured with the top of her left thigh strapped. As well as restricting her movement it hampers her serving as it's the worse leg injury for a right-handed server.

Kasatkina hasn't been in great form for a while but at (a generally available) 2.75 she's a good bet. It beats Betfair (marginally).

If you haven't watched Kastakina she has the looks of a schoolgirl and the mentality of an assassin. She's a tough match-player who is just the type of player to take advantage of an injured opponent.

[TightEnd]

Tennis: Venus Williams v Daria Kasatkina
http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wimbledon/womens/venus-williams-v-daria-kasatkina/winner

Recommend £28 on Daria Kasatkina at 2.75

I apologise for putting this up as a bet as it seems to go against the general ethos of TfT as we already have a bet on Venus Williams to win her quarter.

However, Venus is definitely injured with the top of her left thigh strapped. As well as restricting her movement it hampers her serving as it's the worst injury for a right-handed server.

Kasatkina hasn't been in great form for a while but at (a generally available) 2.75 she's a good bet. It beats Betfair (marginally).

If you haven't watched Kastakina she has the looks of a schoolgirl and the mentality of an assassin. She's a tough match-player who is just the type of player to take advantage of an injured opponent.

Daria Kasatkina Venus Williams v Daria Kasatkina Winner
7/4
Total Stake: £28.00
Potential Returns: £77.00

[TightEnd]

Sam Bird London ePrix Winner
8/1
Total Stake: £10.00
Total Returns: £90.00

Jerome DAmbrosio London ePrix Winner
16/1
Total Stake: £10.00
Total Returns: £170.00