Tips for Tikay

[hector62]

I certainly wouldn't back Portugal for this in 90 mins, but remember that Wales hardly got hold of the ball against England and we are pants. I think I would prefer Wales in 90 mins, as I don't fancy Wales in a penalty shoot out.

Why don't you fancy Wales in a penalty shootout?

Just because I don't think they have enough players who have big match experience.

[rinswun]

Ramsey will be a massive loss to Wales.  Portugal have yet to be convincing in any game but they appear to be slugging it out.  Agree that they must be tired both mentally and physically.  Is there a danger though that with the celebrations that the Wales lads got involved in last match that they  have over boiled? 

I'd prefer to take a punt on them winning in 90 minutes than to qualify if I were honest. 

I was in the stadium for the Wal/NI game and felt the Welsh boys were massively over celebrating then. Seems to have had the opposite effect and brought them closer together as a unit and with the fans.

[baldock92]

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/winner

Chaos in the NBA outright market today as Kevin Durant (the summers biggest free agent) has decided to leave OKC and sign for the GS warriors with Curry and co.  Warriors backed from 5/2 into a shade of odds on.   

What's your opinion on the this arbboy? I'm an okc fan so my feelings are pretty bitter. Seems like an easy way to bandwagon his way a few rings in my opinion, but as I said I'm bitter.

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/winner

Chaos in the NBA outright market today as Kevin Durant (the summers biggest free agent) has decided to leave OKC and sign for the GS warriors with Curry and co.  Warriors backed from 5/2 into a shade of odds on.   

What's your opinion on the this arbboy? I'm an okc fan so my feelings are pretty bitter. Seems like an easy way to bandwagon his way a few rings in my opinion, but as I said I'm bitter.

Can't blame him in the slighest in moving there.  He still gets the max money, bigger state to play in for his off the court activities than OKC.  His move destroys the Western conference totally for the following reasons:  OKC now are not a contender and were GS's main rival last season.  Their only other serious rival was the Spurs and Tim Duncan will probably retire now this summer as he realistically won't fancy another season slogging around the league when he knows the Spurs are too old now to compete with the new dream team in GS.  If TD retires so will pop (spurs coach) i would imagine which massively reduces their chances of winning the West.

The problems for GS start the following season when Curry will no longer be the 4th or 5th highest paid player on the team (which he will be in 2016/17 season) and will demand a long term max contract in standing with his MVP status.  GS have had to give up valuable bench players to fit Durant in under the salary cap.  They are going balls deep on the starting five and going to try to 'buy' a bench under the market value to vet's looking to win a ring and play for a discount like David West did for the Spurs last year leaving $13m in salary on the table to play for a team which could win.  They are in such a strong position to do so now though so it should work out.  The issues about the 'big four' not being able to get enough touches every game shouldn't apply at GS as they have the most potent offense maybe in history and KD should fit seamlessly into it given his style of play.  Everyone should still be able to get their points/shots each game without any major hassle. 

I would make Lebron a strong favourite for next season's MVP award though now.

[TightEnd]

for those who don't follow the NBA it was described to me today as as if

Cam Newton had bveen traded to the current Broncos side. completes the side, makes them unbeatable

[MereNovice]

4th quarter of the ladies draw at Wimbledon is interesting
http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wimbledon/womens/player-to-win-4th-quarter

It is a very very weak section with Muguruza as  favourite.

Obviously Muguruza is the second fave for the tourney and played beautifully in Paris, but before she reached Winbledon final last year she did not show any particular aptitude for the surface and indeed lost in her only match this year in Eastbourne to 60 ranked Flipkens in straight sets.

Of the others, Lisicki has a grass court game and reached the final a few years back (where she totally choked of course) and has been plumetting down the rankings recently. Safarova two losses on grass this season from two matches. Others are claycourt players or have no grass pedigree. Stosur, hmmm?

Oddly I keep coming back to Venus Williams. She still has the power and even in the recent lean years often gets through a few rounds at Wimbledon and is tough to play on grass. 9/1 with Coral, I'm seriously tempted to say she can win five matches in a row here at that price in this section.

But maybe as we can't really find anyone else to back, we should just be backing Muguruza regardless here on 356?

Venus wins her quarter.
Nice work (despite my attempts to hex it).

[TightEnd]

Venus wins her quarter at 10/1 for us

well done

Click to see full-size image.

[arbboy]

for those who don't follow the NBA it was described to me today as as if

Cam Newton had bveen traded to the current Broncos side. completes the side, makes them unbeatable

I don't think they are unbeatable.  They are very very short odds on.  The Cavs bring back everyone from this year's title winning team who mattered and will still give them a proper game in the finals.  Until we know which big men GS can acquire on the cheap there will be glaring holes in the paint for GS to address defensively.  This is where Cleveland killed them last year outrebounding them and they are substantially weaker now than last year.  Offensive dream teams don't always hoover up titles in the NBA (or the NFL for that matter)

You have got arguably 4 of the top 10-15 players in the league now on one team.  This sounds great in theory IF the egos can cope with it.  They might all get along fine but let's not forget for a minute that Curry is the current NBA (first time in history everyone who voted made him their number 1 choice) MVP and the face of the GS warriors.  KD coming in definitely changes this dynamic potentially.  Added in the fact KD will earn double next year what Curry will.  All these may become factors for a rookie coach like Kerr to cope with.  Also their lead assistant Luke Walton (who coached for the first half of the season last year when Kerr was off sick) when they had the insane 2x-0 (can't remember what it was) has left to become the Head coach of the Lakers.  He will be a much bigger miss to Kerr off the court than is being given credit for imo.

[DMorgan]

Could this turn out to be a great e/w heat to oppose the short priced favourite?

I guess we wait and see whether or not GS will be able to get enough good bench players to take a discount to play for the dream team and hose up?

[arbboy]

Could this turn out to be a great e/w heat to oppose the short priced favourite?

I guess we wait and see whether or not GS will be able to get enough good bench players to take a discount to play for the dream team and hose up?

Rinse repeat last year.  Cavs e/w at 7/2+ is literally stealing bundles of ew.  They will be big odds on to win the place part of the bet yet again.    There is no other ew bet worth considering in the Western conference because you will get much bigger than 1/2 win odds on them winning the conference alone given the fact they have to get past GS, spurs, clippers, okc etc.  If you are betting anyone e/w it has to be in the Eastern Conference but all the ew place value is in the cavs at 7/2.  

Interesting the Knicks are still being backed at 50/1 given how much GS have shortened in the past day.  That would be the only other ew bet i would consider simply at the price and the potential improvement i discussed the other day.

Spurs are close to signed Gasol to replace Tim Duncan i assume who must be retiring for the Spurs to even be interested in signing Gasol.

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/golden-state-warriors/regular-season-wins

This looks close to a maximum bet for me under 70.5 wins if anyone can actually get on with the Irish loltraders parading as bookmakers.  Would suggest £300 at 5/6 for fred if anyone can get us on.   The article deep on analytics below makes the correct assumption GS are more likely to win a title with KD but not likely to win more games than their freak season last year.  He doesn't add much more than GS already had anyway to beat 90% of nba teams in the league in the regular season.  His value comes from the top 2 or 3 teams in the play offs.  They predict mid 60 wins for GS this year (which is still historically an incredibly high figure).

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/even-with-kevin-durant-the-warriors-probably-wont-win-73-games-again/

Summary of the key factors are below

In practice, however, it might be hard for the Warriors to equal their 73-win benchmark from last season, even with Durant on the team.

One reason is simple reversion to the mean. Of the 10 previous teams to win at least 67 games during the regular season, all but one saw their win total decline in the following season, falling to an average of 60.5 wins from 68.1 the previous season. The Warriors already showed some signs of mean-reversion in the playoffs, with a season-ending Elo rating of 1756, a championship-worthy but not all-time-great figure.

Another question is diminishing returns. How much value can a high-usage player like Durant realistically add to what was already perhaps the most efficient offense in NBA history? The Miami Heat made four straight NBA Finals during the LeBron Big Three era, but imperfect offensive fits between the stars and a necessarily thin bench kept regular-season win totals far lower than most expected.

Finally, there’s the issue of depth. If, as anticipated, Andrew Bogut is traded, and Harrison Barnes and Festus Ezeli are let go, the Warriors will have only six players with a material amount1 of NBA experience signed to a contract: Durant, Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston.

[arbboy]

Anyone like anything at Uttox tonight? 

[Doobs]

Venus through to the semi finals at Wimbledon.

[Karabiner]

Following Cheltenham, The Masters, and Royal Ascot, we must be fast approaching the fourth and final leg of The Mere Novice Majors.

Hopefully The Mere Novice Open Championship Competition is about to hove into view on the horizon at any moment.

[tikay]

Following Cheltenham, The Masters, and Royal Ascot, we must be fast approaching the fourth and final leg of The Mere Novice Majors.

Hopefully The Mere Novice Open Championship Competition is about to hove into view on the horizon at any moment.

As a past winner of this, count me IN.

[Karabiner]

The 4-dog wins the 7.59pm race at Nottingham on Sky, returned @ 7/2 SP.

Betfair SP is 7/1 and this is not unusual, so why would anyone sensible bet with the bookies?