Tips for Tikay

[Tonibell]

[deleted duplicate]

[Tonibell]

Postponed now 7-4 with BV. The horse would be closer to evens if the yard hadn't had a cough. It's a bet for Fred if you think Varian wouldn't risk running the horse unless it had worked well, scoped clean etc given that a trainer can't risk disappointing its massive arsehole of an owner.

[tikay]

I know what we saw on Saturday lunch time wasn't a good performance whatsoever by Leicester.

However, Leicester are at home to Arsenal on Saturday (530pm) and have been priced at 2/1 by BV - this too me seems once again too big.

Like I've said it was by no means a good start by Leicester but Arsenal were not far behind them and have some serious defensive issues.

Thoughts?

Morning.

Nobody replied with their thoughts, so I'll have a go.

Personally, I'm not at all sure we should be betting on games (as opposed to some sub-markets, FGS etc) this early in the season. It's fraught with danger at this stage & the nit in me shies away from it. A lot think the same, & I guess a lot disagree.

On the face of it, a tidy price, yes, but it seems to me are are guessing as to whether either or both of the teams have trained on, aren't we? The evidence from last weekend was a bit muddled & far from conclusive, I thought. I think we can safely ignore all the media hype thrown at both teams, both results were a little odd in many ways, both games could easily have gone the other way.

The more adventurous amongst us might argue that it is precisely at this time of the season that we can find real value, of course. They might be right, it's all opinions I guess.

Traditionally, Fred has kept it's powder dry until September at the earliest. Rightly or wrongly.

[tikay]

In the Juddmonte tomorrow, it maybe worth taking on Postponed who, despite looking a world beater this year, has never won over this trip. The Varian stable is hardly firing on all cylinders, with just two winners this month and he has publically said they have been under a cloud, which was why Postponed missed the KG.

At the prices I like Wings of Desire, at 14-1, who won the Dante over course and distance, and when compared to Highland Reel at 11/2, who just beat him in the aforementioned KG, under a superb Ryan tactical ride, looks by far the greater value.

Suggest £15 ew @ 14-1

Want it with bet everyday, if anyone can help, as they're 1/4 1-3

Booked.

Thanks Dazzler.

Payment via usual means?

OK to settle after the race, as it is today?

[tikay]

In the Juddmonte tomorrow, it maybe worth taking on Postponed who, despite looking a world beater this year, has never won over this trip. The Varian stable is hardly firing on all cylinders, with just two winners this month and he has publically said they have been under a cloud, which was why Postponed missed the KG.

At the prices I like Wings of Desire, at 14-1, who won the Dante over course and distance, and when compared to Highland Reel at 11/2, who just beat him in the aforementioned KG, under a superb Ryan tactical ride, looks by far the greater value.

Suggest £15 ew @ 14-1

Was looking to back this one too.  Have some faith in your picking skills Adz.  Would be happy to bet more.

Haha. The force is still strong Doobs, just putting them on here seems to put extra lead in their saddle, and i would hate to see people go mad, but bouyed to hear you think the same.

Thanks for the recommend, Adzy. Don't worry if a few go south, we all know your bets are thoroughly researched & always give us value.

Keep them coming please.

[tikay]

10 ew placed on paddy at 25s if u want it, sorry haven't been around much randomly browsed toay and saw a bet I could get on for you guys, i still have a Tikay balance of £60, so £40 after this if u want.

Thanks nuros, confirmed the balance is now reduced to £40.

Fingers crossed the balance will be much more after the race.

[Doobs]

Morning.

Got a couple at York today.

It is a bit obvious but I like Duke of Firenze in the first at York.  R Jcan well last time, seems to have a good draw etc.  Also the favourite.

Suggest 25 e/w at 9/1 5 places with 365, so booked for some of mine if you want it.

The other is Oceane in the 16.20.  We had this last time and it got a bit unlucky/got a bad ride/didn't get going quick enough depending on your view.   Victor are 13/2 which means you get close to betfair on the win and better than them on the place.  Suggest 25 e/w at the 13/2 with victor.  Would be happy with 6/1 too

[TightEnd]

Postponed now 7-4 with BV. The horse would be closer to evens if the yard hadn't had a cough. It's a bet for Fred if you think Varian wouldn't risk running the horse unless it had worked well, scoped clean etc given that a trainer can't risk disappointing its massive arsehole of an owner.

opinions please

we are already on wings of desire (our spreadsheet is terrified, wings of desire...)

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/york/15:40/winner

[TightEnd]

Morning.

Got a couple at York today.

It is a bit obvious but I like Duke of Firenze in the first at York.  R Jcan well last time, seems to have a good draw etc.  Also the favourite.

Suggest 25 e/w at 9/1 5 places with 365, so booked for some of mine if you want it.

The other is Oceane in the 16.20.  We had this last time and it got a bit unlucky/got a bad ride/didn't get going quick enough depending on your view.   Victor are 13/2 which means you get close to betfair on the win and better than them on the place.  Suggest 25 e/w at the 13/2 with victor.  Would be happy with 6/1 too

Oceane York 16:20 Winner
13/2 Each Way (4 Places at 1/4 Odds)
Total Stake: £50.00
Potential Returns: £253.00


25ew Firenze with you?

[Doobs]

Postponed now 7-4 with BV. The horse would be closer to evens if the yard hadn't had a cough. It's a bet for Fred if you think Varian wouldn't risk running the horse unless it had worked well, scoped clean etc given that a trainer can't risk disappointing its massive arsehole of an owner.

opinions please

we are already on wings of desire (our spreadsheet is terrified, wings of desire...)

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/york/15:40/winner

I prefer our bet, but no harm in putting 25 on with hills and getting the price plus free bet if 2nd.

Wings of desire in to 12/1 best now fwiw.

[Doobs]

Morning.

Got a couple at York today.

It is a bit obvious but I like Duke of Firenze in the first at York.  R Jcan well last time, seems to have a good draw etc.  Also the favourite.

Suggest 25 e/w at 9/1 5 places with 365, so booked for some of mine if you want it.

The other is Oceane in the 16.20.  We had this last time and it got a bit unlucky/got a bad ride/didn't get going quick enough depending on your view.   Victor are 13/2 which means you get close to betfair on the win and better than them on the place.  Suggest 25 e/w at the 13/2 with victor.  Would be happy with 6/1 too

Oceane York 16:20 Winner
13/2 Each Way (4 Places at 1/4 Odds)
Total Stake: £50.00
Potential Returns: £253.00


25ew Firenze with you?

Yep that is what I meant.  Booked.

For those not on, there is some 33/1 arctic feeling about today.  I just topped up a bit. 

[horseplayer]

For obvious reasons I have not kept track of the York draw this season.

No surprise Hugh taylor has and this is from his column this morning.

the draw on the Straight course at York this season-the last nine handicaps have all gone to the horses from the lowest 5 stall numbers. Of the 81 runners from double figure draws only 1 has won.

Fair sample that obviously things can change the lowest 5 drawn in the sprint are

Artic feeling
Duke of firenze
Baraweez
Line of reason
Boom the groom

Already on artic the firm ground is the obvious worry. Duke seems solid aslong as they go hard.baraweez has been running well over 7 at Galway but Ellison knows the score so presumably thinks can handle this. Line of reason solid fast ground ideal. Boom the groom better on downhill tracks and they got their payday last time

[Tonibell]

Single figure draw and front runners on the York straight course. I've done Robot Boy out of seven and in first-time blinkers in this.

[RickBFA]

Sheff Utd at it again

Wilder not got long methinks

Think he deserves a decent crack at it though. Lot of changes in the summer and will take him a while to find his best team. Lot of works in progress among the big guns in L1 so far.

A good friend of mine rang me this morning, a season ticket holder at Sheff Utd.

He says United's defence is horrific. The left back, Hussey signed by Wilder is "the worse left back I've ever seen play for United" and the keeper Long is just out of his depth. Brayford who was highly rated not same player since injury.

I suspect whilst Wilder may turn it around, you may see them conceding a few goals for a while.

[hector62]

Afternoon Tighty.

There are a couple of interesting spots in the tennis today. I think that Reilly Opelka is a bit overpriced to beat Tsonga today, but for Fred I think the better bet is to oppose Dominic Thiem when he plays John Millman. Thiem's form before he took a break because of injury was pretty poor. He lost to Mayer, Vesely and Melzer in a month. He is now returning after a month out from a hip injury and this looks like a testing the injury type tournament before the US open. Millman has had to win 3 matches in this tournament already and he gave Nishikori a tough game at the Olympics.

Suggest £20 Millman @ 7/4 with Corals, hills or 888.