Tips for Tikay

Quote from: TightEnd on April 09, 2016, 10:31:24 AM

Quote from: gherkin on April 08, 2016, 07:32:13 PM

Had a quick look but doesn't look like you have a bet for the County Championship season. I saw Tighty tipped Warwickshire at 13/2 on the Betting Emporium newsletter and think that's a pretty solid bet. Haven't got time to do a full analysis of all the teams but I'll look at Warwickshire since that's the team I know very well, and the bet Tighty suggested...

The batting looks really strong for a change. The top 5 will be Chopra, Westwood, Bell, Trott, Hain. Sam Hain will play for England and is more than capable of 1000 runs this season. He qualifies for England this September and whilst that will be too early for him, if he can keep scoring runs it shouldn't take long (currently averaging over 41 from 23 Div 1 games). His top score was 28 in his 4 pre-season innings and 25 was his top score in his last 6 Championship innings last year, so that's a bit of a worry but with Porterfield (Ireland captain) and Evans (more and more reliable these days) waiting there is plenty of backup. Fingers crossed Chopra without the captaincy will score 1000+ again (like he was every year until he took the role on). No need to talk about Bell or Trott, arguably the strongest 3 & 4 combo the CC has seen in the modern era. The middle order of Ambrose, Woakes and Clarke is very strong and have got the top order out of trouble time and time again over the years, although they shouldn't have that pressure this season. The "tail" will feature the likes of Barker, Patel, Wright (all averaging 20+) and Rankin/Hannon-Dalby (actual tail-enders!)

Bowling has more depth than any county (Yorkshire included), although Yorkshire can certainly boast a better 1st team attack. Jeetan Patel will lead the spin department, although Poysden will be pushing to break into the 1st team late in the season when 2 spinners can be justified. I think Javed (other spinner) will be used almost exclusively as a 1 day bowler this season but is a more than capable with bat & ball if needed. The pace attack will be constantly rotated - allrounders Clarke and Woakes should play every game, then I guess the likes of Wright, Barker, Rankin, Hannon-Dalby and Jones will be competing for 2 spots based around form/freshness, although the later 2 are mainly used in shorter forms of the game. With 10 bowlers competing for 5 spots, injuries shouldn't be a problem, especially when you consider only Woakes has any chance of an international call up (I checked Ireland's fixtures and Rankin should only miss 1 CC game this season). 2-3 seasons ago pretty much every single 1st team bowler got called up for England, England A, Ireland or New Zealand.

So, plenty of positives. I can see 3 problems:

a) Bell getting back in the England team would leave a massive hole in the batting and captaincy. Woakes is the vice-captain and will take over in this scenario, which seems bizarre given that he is the other player England will almost certainly call upon during the summer.

b) For (almost) 2 seasons Warwickshire were competing for all 3 trophies. After a 1st/2nd/2nd in 2014, we looked set for a similar return in 2015 only for it to go completely tits up. They never showed up for 20/20 Finals Day, lost 2 County Championship games by very small margins at crucial times in the season and got knocked out by rain in the other competition because their dreadful start meant they had to win the final group game. At the time I put it down to burnout, to keep that intensity in that many competitions for 2 seasons would have been almost impossible - I guess it's the equivalent of a PL team competing for the treble 2 years running. EVERY single other team were able to prioritise tournaments by the time they get to a certain point in a season (either 2014 or 2015 or in most cases both) and rest key players whilst giving youngsters a chance. I found out recently that it looks like this was only partly the case and there was quite a lot of dressing room unrest. Reading between the lines, it seems Chopra would have been gone as captain even if Bell hadn't been dropped by England. There's a decent possibility that whatever the problem was hasn't gone away and may re-appear at some point during the season.

c) Going on from the last point, burnout is a real possibility for what is no longer a young squad. I saw this article earlier - http://www.skysports.com/cricket/news/12140/10216791/county-cricket-2016-sky-sports-pundits-make-their-predictions. 3 "experts" who all predict Warwickshire to win a trophy this year, the problem being they all predict a different one! A good problem to have as a team but not so good if you want to bet on them in 1 competition

There was actually a 4th problem that got solved this morning.... that being the amount we relied on Tim Ambrose - he's been doing double overtime for years now. It's been a long time since we had a decent backup, and McKay who we'd been trying for a few years was let go over the winter, leaving us with some guy we picked up from the minor counties. Thankfully today they announced Luke Ronchi has signed for the entire 20/20 campaign - it's definitely the area we'll miss Ambrose least, so he can rest up during those games and should be fresh enough for the rest of the season

Yorkshire can't possibly be value at 6/4 when we are looking at the strongest division 1 ever seen, and I've got absolutely no interest in backing Durham or Lancashire at their odds. Those 3 teams are the ones I expect to suffer the most with the new toss rule, as historically they've had more bowling friendly conditions at the start of games. Notts were so strong at the end of last year, maybe they take that momentum with them? Problem is, they are always one of the top 4 favourites and are always out of contention by half way through the season - they are the same price as Warwickshire and I'd want more than that for a team who've never shown consistency throughout a whole season. I do make them 3rd favourites though. Middlesex are on of the teams I was referring to earlier - they finished 2nd last season but effectively only played 1 competition, they were so woeful in other formats that they could write them off at a very early stage and just concentrate on the CC. That won't be the case this year and judging from their signings it looks like they will take limited overs cricket a lot more seriously. Justifiably 4th favourites and too short to consider backing. Surrey are the team I know least about, although having read up on them a bit I have no idea how they can be almost the same price as Warwickshire! Hampshire are 20/1 outsiders and such is the competitiveness of this division, I wouldn't want to be laying any bigger than that - problem is they are so much stronger at limited overs cricket and with such an old team that seems to lack depth, there is no way they can compete on all 3 fronts and I can't back them at that price either.

So, Warwickshire do seem nice value to me. I was thinking 2 or 3 weeks ago about posting the bet here at 13/2 but decided against it purely on the basis I actually think the 12/1 on us winning the 1 day cup is better value. I didn't want to post 2 bets on the 1 team I support, especially when I tipped us last season as well! Thankfully Tighty suggested the County Championship bet (http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/county-championship-div-1/county-championship-division-1/winner) so I can agree with that, whilst myself recommending the 12/1 on us winning the One Day Cup (http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/royal-london-one-day-cup/winner). Before last year we had a 1st, 2nd and 2nd over a 4 year period in this competition. If Bell gets called up for England I think the 12/1 is a very fair price, if he doesn't the 12/1 is a great price.

Hi, shall we leave the royal london for nearer the time? no need to bet it yet is there?

the 13/2 for SSCC1 has gone. probably taken by the BE guys yesterday

the only 6/1 we can take is ladbrokes. who limited us to £1.17 e/w

so thats that. its not value below sixes.

Did you ever get on Warwickshire for the RL Cup? If so then I'd lay it off, especially if it wasn't e/w. It's rare I lay off a long term bet but I did a few days ago as I really think Surrey should be (small) favourites tomorrow instead of it being priced as a 50/50 game. Surrey seem to be a team on the up, whereas we are firmly at last chance saloon for alot of our players after a 2nd year in a row where the (relatively old) squad have capitulated in the 2nd half of the season.

Apologies if you didn't get on, I should have reminded you closer to the time.

Had a look at the other markets - B365 have Jeetan Patel @4.5 to be top Warwickshire wicket taker, which is definitely too big. Since you can't get on there, I'd take the 4.33 at 10Bet or NetBet if you have an account there. Would leave it at 3/1 but maybe the 16/1 on him being MoM is a decent alternative. Not expecting it turn massively but he's so good/reliable and was by far our best bowler when we made the final a couple of years ago

Also, Surrey to score highest in the first 15 overs looks a decent price at 1.9 (http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/royal-london-one-day-cup/surrey-v-warwickshire/highest-first-15-overs). Opening the batting it's Davies and Roy vs Hain and Trott - no brainer really, especially since Bell and Sangakarra are very similar number

, and you'd expect the vast majority of balls in the opening 15 overs to be faced by the top 3.