Tips for Tikay

[Peter-27]

Before anyone else says it, yes Williams did impress at Barcelona today, but no we shouldn't be betting on them for the title.

We'll only really begin to see what teams can actually do on the final two days of testing when aero parts begin to hit the cars.

Plus, with how tightly packaged the Mercedes is at the rear, they should have this season in the bag already, assuming they can stay reliable.

If you bet this morning, you got 50/1 Massa to finish top 3.  Mercedes will likely be best, they should be reliable, but we don't bet on who is the most likely winner.  We bet on the things that are most value, and that just feels to be more likely to be value than not.  Even if he only has the 4th best car, people get injured, cars get disqualified etc.  Sure in most scenarios he gets left behind in the Championship and doesn't trouble the podium in 90% of races, but sometimes odd things happen.   

We remember nobody was saying Brawn have this years championshp tied up in January 2009, or "that was a great move Lewis" when he moved to Mercedes or that they'll all be driving turbos in a few years as Renault retired their way through the turn of the eighties.  If you do learn anything from this post, remember that the tails are the hardest part to model right in any statistical distribution.  Nobody is likely to be far out on Lewis's chance to win the championship, everybody could be miles off with Massa.

So when we bet Vettel at 14/1 to win the championship and just less than 3/1 to finish in the top 3, we don't do it thinking he is the most likely winner.  We do it thinking these odds are wrong, we did it because he looked to have more chance than 7% to win the championship and nobody is going to give us 3/1 top 3 any time soon.   And I don't know, but I wish I could have got a meaningful sum on Massa at 250/1 and a fifth first 3.   

The most likely scenario is still Mercedes is the best car on the grid in Australia, but we don't know the probability that will happen, and we are all just making educated guesses on what we see and what we have learned over the years.   Right now we are siitting pretty with Vettel and Bottas at much better prices than we can get now, in a couple of months we could be ripping up our tickets.       

I wouldn't even dream of arguing with your assessment of how to place bets and hunting for value - as I know that to be true also. Where I disagree is what price constitutes value, and what you're basing your assessments on .. I'll expand on my last post below.

Alonso has come out fighting to the Spanish media. "The team are all ready to win except Honda,"

Alonso says the McLaren is losing 30km/h on the straight. ""There is no reliability and there is no power."

Fernando Alonso insists only Honda engine is preventing McLaren from being potential winners in 2017 http://skysports.tv/z9ZqnZ 

but another duff engine another terrible year ahead?.



i had a quick look but couldn't see any fixed odds ways,but any way on the spreads (or value left) in going no points etc?

I'm constantly checking the markets as pre-season bets are where I tend to make most of my money, seems like the market is still forming however.

Will of course post the minute I see anything worth betting on.

fastest time of winter testing so far, this morning (usual caveats apply)

Click to see full-size image.

Betfair 4.1/4.6 Vettel.  Several sleepy bookies still 6/1 and 13/2.

Personally I would say 6/1 is about right on Vettel. Every year pre-season testing comes along and everybody plays down its importance, stating that there are too many variables and too much sandbagging for it to be relevant. However, this season, times are more irrelevant than ever .. I've never really seen anything like this before to be honest.

This is the first time we've seen a major aero regulation change with heavy limits on track time, CFD teraflops and wind tunnel time. When an aero change comes along, the absolute key is understanding baseline performance - this means building up knowledge of how airflow is behaving around the car with minimal aero additions. Once you understand the baseline, you can then add devices, winglets and flaps to the car, without track testing, and still have a reasonable confidence in their impact on the entire car. The problem is that it takes a long time to understand the baseline package, and the teams spent a good five/six days analysing this baseline which makes those lap times utterly redundant. Now we're clearly in the stage where more aero parts are hitting the cars, and lap times are tumbling. However, tomorrow is the final day of testing, and teams are just running out of time. No-one is anywhere near their ultimate pace yet even now - the way this is going, I think even after the Australian GP has finished we won't really know the pecking order; the teams just don't have enough time to do everything they need to.

To give you an example of just how little those lap times mean, Vettel set the fastest lap we've seen today, a 1:19.024. If you look at that lap, he backed off considerably on the start/finish straight, losing a heap of time (people are estimating around half a second). Also, there is a news story in the paddock at the moment that Mercedes are feeling like they could comfortably get into the 1:17's. The reality of the situation is that we just don't know which team sits where by looking at the lap times. That's why, in my opinion, Williams is a bad bet. Why not Haas or Toro Rosso? If your conclusion is solely based on lap time (which I suspect it is, although happy to be proved wrong) they have an equally good chance.

Where you can pick up an idea of who is quick though is by watching the footage from testing. The idea, which has served me extremely well in the past, is not to look at who's going fast, but to look at the driveability and tendencies of the cars. Who's smooth? Who's balance is poor? Who's wrestling the car? Who's using the full width of the track? Which cars look sluggish etc. etc. These are the things that give us the insights into the pecking order.

Over the seven days of testing so far, I've done well over 30 hours of analysis and am starting to build up a picture of the situation. Tomorrow is absolutely critical as teams continue to bring parts to their cars, so it should be an interesting day. I'm hoping to have some bet suggestions as soon as the market forms properly, but as things stand, I can't see any value spots out there really. That being said, tomorrow could change everything - let's see

You have responded to a post where I pointed out you could lay at 4.6 (for £1500) and back at 6/1 or 13/2 with multiple bookies (About half were these prices), and can't see any value.

If you can back at 13/2 and lay at 4.6 then it doesn't matter if somebody snatches away Vettel's Ferrari and he has to finish the season in a McLaren filled with a truckload of sandbagging.

On to Cheltenham.

Haha! I had missed the subtly of your original post, apologies. My comments were more aimed at your prior bet suggestions, rather than the laying/backing scenario.

Personally I would say 6/1 is about right on Vettel. Every year pre-season testing comes along and everybody plays down its importance, stating that there are too many variables and too much sandbagging for it to be relevant. However, this season, times are more irrelevant than ever .. I've never really seen anything like this before to be honest.

This is the first time we've seen a major aero regulation change with heavy limits on track time, CFD teraflops and wind tunnel time. When an aero change comes along, the absolute key is understanding baseline performance - this means building up knowledge of how airflow is behaving around the car with minimal aero additions. Once you understand the baseline, you can then add devices, winglets and flaps to the car, without track testing, and still have a reasonable confidence in their impact on the entire car. The problem is that it takes a long time to understand the baseline package, and the teams spent a good five/six days analysing this baseline which makes those lap times utterly redundant. Now we're clearly in the stage where more aero parts are hitting the cars, and lap times are tumbling. However, tomorrow is the final day of testing, and teams are just running out of time. No-one is anywhere near their ultimate pace yet even now - the way this is going, I think even after the Australian GP has finished we won't really know the pecking order; the teams just don't have enough time to do everything they need to.

To give you an example of just how little those lap times mean, Vettel set the fastest lap we've seen today, a 1:19.024. If you look at that lap, he backed off considerably on the start/finish straight, losing a heap of time (people are estimating around half a second). Also, there is a news story in the paddock at the moment that Mercedes are feeling like they could comfortably get into the 1:17's. The reality of the situation is that we just don't know which team sits where by looking at the lap times. That's why, in my opinion, Williams is a bad bet. Why not Haas or Toro Rosso? If your conclusion is solely based on lap time (which I suspect it is, although happy to be proved wrong) they have an equally good chance.

Where you can pick up an idea of who is quick though is by watching the footage from testing. The idea, which has served me extremely well in the past, is not to look at who's going fast, but to look at the driveability and tendencies of the cars. Who's smooth? Who's balance is poor? Who's wrestling the car? Who's using the full width of the track? Which cars look sluggish etc. etc. These are the things that give us the insights into the pecking order.

Over the seven days of testing so far, I've done well over 30 hours of analysis and am starting to build up a picture of the situation. Tomorrow is absolutely critical as teams continue to bring parts to their cars, so it should be an interesting day. I'm hoping to have some bet suggestions as soon as the market forms properly, but as things stand, I can't see any value spots out there really. That being said, tomorrow could change everything - let's see

Really interesting info, thanks for posting

Talking of which, McLaren are having another awful day - TWO car failures out on track already this morning.

The mockers & dissers are having a field day - or week - with McLaren, but it's all pretty sad imo. And for Honda, pretty bad. It's hard to imagine how they have managed to get in such a mess.

I genuinely hope things come together soon. Won't be Australia, but within a few races. Big ask though. F1 needs a competitive McLaren, it really does.

McLaren, or Honda, are a strange case.

2015, a dismal season, but expected given the year less development they had.
2016, a dismal season, also expected due to restricted engine development.
2017, they're not expected to be front runners - they are still a year behind - but to be THIS bad is just .. bizarre.

Honda blame McLaren, McLaren blame Honda - in truth, both are appalling. Honda have just utterly screwed up (I've heard stories about some of the failures they're having, and they're getting the basic fundamentals wrong), whereas McLaren (contrary to popular believe) have no money to develop the car to any competitive level.

No-one who has any knowledge of F1 expected McLaren to score podiums again until the engine regs change (they'll always be one year behind), but no-one also expected them to be quite this bad. These problems aren't going to go away in a few races, they'll take years.

I stand by what I said last year, in the next five years (now four), McLaren will have pulled the plug on their F1 operation.

[Peter-27]

Personally I would say 6/1 is about right on Vettel. Every year pre-season testing comes along and everybody plays down its importance, stating that there are too many variables and too much sandbagging for it to be relevant. However, this season, times are more irrelevant than ever .. I've never really seen anything like this before to be honest.

This is the first time we've seen a major aero regulation change with heavy limits on track time, CFD teraflops and wind tunnel time. When an aero change comes along, the absolute key is understanding baseline performance - this means building up knowledge of how airflow is behaving around the car with minimal aero additions. Once you understand the baseline, you can then add devices, winglets and flaps to the car, without track testing, and still have a reasonable confidence in their impact on the entire car. The problem is that it takes a long time to understand the baseline package, and the teams spent a good five/six days analysing this baseline which makes those lap times utterly redundant. Now we're clearly in the stage where more aero parts are hitting the cars, and lap times are tumbling. However, tomorrow is the final day of testing, and teams are just running out of time. No-one is anywhere near their ultimate pace yet even now - the way this is going, I think even after the Australian GP has finished we won't really know the pecking order; the teams just don't have enough time to do everything they need to.

To give you an example of just how little those lap times mean, Vettel set the fastest lap we've seen today, a 1:19.024. If you look at that lap, he backed off considerably on the start/finish straight, losing a heap of time (people are estimating around half a second). Also, there is a news story in the paddock at the moment that Mercedes are feeling like they could comfortably get into the 1:17's. The reality of the situation is that we just don't know which team sits where by looking at the lap times. That's why, in my opinion, Williams is a bad bet. Why not Haas or Toro Rosso? If your conclusion is solely based on lap time (which I suspect it is, although happy to be proved wrong) they have an equally good chance.

Where you can pick up an idea of who is quick though is by watching the footage from testing. The idea, which has served me extremely well in the past, is not to look at who's going fast, but to look at the driveability and tendencies of the cars. Who's smooth? Who's balance is poor? Who's wrestling the car? Who's using the full width of the track? Which cars look sluggish etc. etc. These are the things that give us the insights into the pecking order.

Over the seven days of testing so far, I've done well over 30 hours of analysis and am starting to build up a picture of the situation. Tomorrow is absolutely critical as teams continue to bring parts to their cars, so it should be an interesting day. I'm hoping to have some bet suggestions as soon as the market forms properly, but as things stand, I can't see any value spots out there really. That being said, tomorrow could change everything - let's see

Really interesting info, thanks for posting

Thanks for the feedback, I was worried what I wrote might not make much sense. I had to re-write a few times in order to get those difficult concepts across in a way that was understandable to those who don't have an in-depth motorsport knowledge

[DungBeetle]

Personally I would say 6/1 is about right on Vettel. Every year pre-season testing comes along and everybody plays down its importance, stating that there are too many variables and too much sandbagging for it to be relevant. However, this season, times are more irrelevant than ever .. I've never really seen anything like this before to be honest.

This is the first time we've seen a major aero regulation change with heavy limits on track time, CFD teraflops and wind tunnel time. When an aero change comes along, the absolute key is understanding baseline performance - this means building up knowledge of how airflow is behaving around the car with minimal aero additions. Once you understand the baseline, you can then add devices, winglets and flaps to the car, without track testing, and still have a reasonable confidence in their impact on the entire car. The problem is that it takes a long time to understand the baseline package, and the teams spent a good five/six days analysing this baseline which makes those lap times utterly redundant. Now we're clearly in the stage where more aero parts are hitting the cars, and lap times are tumbling. However, tomorrow is the final day of testing, and teams are just running out of time. No-one is anywhere near their ultimate pace yet even now - the way this is going, I think even after the Australian GP has finished we won't really know the pecking order; the teams just don't have enough time to do everything they need to.

To give you an example of just how little those lap times mean, Vettel set the fastest lap we've seen today, a 1:19.024. If you look at that lap, he backed off considerably on the start/finish straight, losing a heap of time (people are estimating around half a second). Also, there is a news story in the paddock at the moment that Mercedes are feeling like they could comfortably get into the 1:17's. The reality of the situation is that we just don't know which team sits where by looking at the lap times. That's why, in my opinion, Williams is a bad bet. Why not Haas or Toro Rosso? If your conclusion is solely based on lap time (which I suspect it is, although happy to be proved wrong) they have an equally good chance.

Where you can pick up an idea of who is quick though is by watching the footage from testing. The idea, which has served me extremely well in the past, is not to look at who's going fast, but to look at the driveability and tendencies of the cars. Who's smooth? Who's balance is poor? Who's wrestling the car? Who's using the full width of the track? Which cars look sluggish etc. etc. These are the things that give us the insights into the pecking order.

Over the seven days of testing so far, I've done well over 30 hours of analysis and am starting to build up a picture of the situation. Tomorrow is absolutely critical as teams continue to bring parts to their cars, so it should be an interesting day. I'm hoping to have some bet suggestions as soon as the market forms properly, but as things stand, I can't see any value spots out there really. That being said, tomorrow could change everything - let's see

Really interesting info, thanks for posting

Thanks for the feedback, I was worried what I wrote might not make much sense. I had to re-write a few times in order to get those difficult concepts across in a way that was understandable to those who don't have an in-depth motorsport knowledge

It was a great post pitched at just the right level.  It has certainly given me an extra layer of understanding ahead of the new season so thanks for taking time to post.

[Tractor]

Personally I would say 6/1 is about right on Vettel. Every year pre-season testing comes along and everybody plays down its importance, stating that there are too many variables and too much sandbagging for it to be relevant. However, this season, times are more irrelevant than ever .. I've never really seen anything like this before to be honest.

This is the first time we've seen a major aero regulation change with heavy limits on track time, CFD teraflops and wind tunnel time. When an aero change comes along, the absolute key is understanding baseline performance - this means building up knowledge of how airflow is behaving around the car with minimal aero additions. Once you understand the baseline, you can then add devices, winglets and flaps to the car, without track testing, and still have a reasonable confidence in their impact on the entire car. The problem is that it takes a long time to understand the baseline package, and the teams spent a good five/six days analysing this baseline which makes those lap times utterly redundant. Now we're clearly in the stage where more aero parts are hitting the cars, and lap times are tumbling. However, tomorrow is the final day of testing, and teams are just running out of time. No-one is anywhere near their ultimate pace yet even now - the way this is going, I think even after the Australian GP has finished we won't really know the pecking order; the teams just don't have enough time to do everything they need to.

To give you an example of just how little those lap times mean, Vettel set the fastest lap we've seen today, a 1:19.024. If you look at that lap, he backed off considerably on the start/finish straight, losing a heap of time (people are estimating around half a second). Also, there is a news story in the paddock at the moment that Mercedes are feeling like they could comfortably get into the 1:17's. The reality of the situation is that we just don't know which team sits where by looking at the lap times. That's why, in my opinion, Williams is a bad bet. Why not Haas or Toro Rosso? If your conclusion is solely based on lap time (which I suspect it is, although happy to be proved wrong) they have an equally good chance.

Where you can pick up an idea of who is quick though is by watching the footage from testing. The idea, which has served me extremely well in the past, is not to look at who's going fast, but to look at the driveability and tendencies of the cars. Who's smooth? Who's balance is poor? Who's wrestling the car? Who's using the full width of the track? Which cars look sluggish etc. etc. These are the things that give us the insights into the pecking order.

Over the seven days of testing so far, I've done well over 30 hours of analysis and am starting to build up a picture of the situation. Tomorrow is absolutely critical as teams continue to bring parts to their cars, so it should be an interesting day. I'm hoping to have some bet suggestions as soon as the market forms properly, but as things stand, I can't see any value spots out there really. That being said, tomorrow could change everything - let's see

Really interesting info, thanks for posting

Thanks for the feedback, I was worried what I wrote might not make much sense. I had to re-write a few times in order to get those difficult concepts across in a way that was understandable to those who don't have an in-depth motorsport knowledge

It was a great post pitched at just the right level.  It has certainly given me an extra layer of understanding ahead of the new season so thanks for taking time to post.

I love the f1 season, and look forward to your posts Peter.

Glad to see your still posting and look forward to reading your analysis in the coming season.

Cheers

[Karabiner]

What about West Ham away at Bournmouth tomorrow?

I think they look a decent 9/5 pop.

[Marky147]

I love reading all the F1 stuff from Doobs & Peter, even though I don't get to back much of it as I miss it

[T_Mar]

I love reading all the F1 stuff from Doobs & Peter, even though I don't get to back much of it as I miss it

I know nothing about F1 but enjoy both there posts as well - Enjoy anything Doobs posts as it's 99% +EV 😀

Quite a big difference between the two and their respective skill sets though.

I remember an early post on this thread by Channing I think saying that there was basically 3 ways of finding value in sports betting 

1) Inside Info
2) Doing more research than the loltraders you're betting against
3) Identifying certain market conditions Where bookies intentionally / unintentionally give up an edge - I think about this as gambling theory

I would say Peter falls into a combination of the first two - Clearly he has a very in depth level of knowledge along with elements of inside info that will allow him to be ahead of the market. Doobs is obviously knowledgeable on motorsport to a point but where he kills it is with gambling theory and being able to take advantage of market conditions - Its probably fair to say Peter doesn't have as strong a grasp on gambling theory - No offence Peter 😀

Without wanting to be controversial this kind of similar to Adzy and the horses - Great form student which allows him to be ahead of the crowd but maybe on occasions less strong on theory which is where the disagreements come from.

Beauty of the thread is we have inputs from both sides - Lethal combo! 😀

[TheDazzler]

I love reading all the F1 stuff from Doobs & Peter, even though I don't get to back much of it as I miss it

I know nothing about F1 but enjoy both there posts as well - Enjoy anything Doobs posts as it's 99% +EV 😀

Quite a big difference between the two and their respective skill sets though.

I remember an early post on this thread by Channing I think saying that there was basically 3 ways of finding value in sports betting 

1) Inside Info
2) Doing more research than the loltraders you're betting against
3) Identifying certain market conditions Where bookies intentionally / unintentionally give up an edge - I think about this as gambling theory

I would say Peter falls into a combination of the first two - Clearly he has a very in depth level of knowledge along with elements of inside info that will allow him to be ahead of the market. Doobs is obviously knowledgeable on motorsport to a point but where he kills it is with gambling theory and being able to take advantage of market conditions - Its probably fair to say Peter doesn't have as strong a grasp on gambling theory - No offence Peter 😀

Without wanting to be controversial this kind of similar to Adzy and the horses - Great form student which allows him to be ahead of the crowd but maybe on occasions less strong on theory which is where the disagreements come from.

Beauty of the thread is we have inputs from both sides - Lethal combo! 😀

Yes, very perceptive analysis, I think.

[Marky147]

I love reading all the F1 stuff from Doobs & Peter, even though I don't get to back much of it as I miss it

I know nothing about F1 but enjoy both there posts as well - Enjoy anything Doobs posts as it's 99% +EV 😀

Quite a big difference between the two and their respective skill sets though.

I remember an early post on this thread by Channing I think saying that there was basically 3 ways of finding value in sports betting 

1) Inside Info
2) Doing more research than the loltraders you're betting against
3) Identifying certain market conditions Where bookies intentionally / unintentionally give up an edge - I think about this as gambling theory

I would say Peter falls into a combination of the first two - Clearly he has a very in depth level of knowledge along with elements of inside info that will allow him to be ahead of the market. Doobs is obviously knowledgeable on motorsport to a point but where he kills it is with gambling theory and being able to take advantage of market conditions - Its probably fair to say Peter doesn't have as strong a grasp on gambling theory - No offence Peter 😀

Without wanting to be controversial this kind of similar to Adzy and the horses - Great form student which allows him to be ahead of the crowd but maybe on occasions less strong on theory which is where the disagreements come from.

Beauty of the thread is we have inputs from both sides - Lethal combo! 😀

Yes, very perceptive analysis, I think.

+1

Great post, T Mar

[Peter-27]

I love reading all the F1 stuff from Doobs & Peter, even though I don't get to back much of it as I miss it

I know nothing about F1 but enjoy both there posts as well - Enjoy anything Doobs posts as it's 99% +EV 😀

Quite a big difference between the two and their respective skill sets though.

I remember an early post on this thread by Channing I think saying that there was basically 3 ways of finding value in sports betting 

1) Inside Info
2) Doing more research than the loltraders you're betting against
3) Identifying certain market conditions Where bookies intentionally / unintentionally give up an edge - I think about this as gambling theory

I would say Peter falls into a combination of the first two - Clearly he has a very in depth level of knowledge along with elements of inside info that will allow him to be ahead of the market. Doobs is obviously knowledgeable on motorsport to a point but where he kills it is with gambling theory and being able to take advantage of market conditions - Its probably fair to say Peter doesn't have as strong a grasp on gambling theory - No offence Peter 😀

Without wanting to be controversial this kind of similar to Adzy and the horses - Great form student which allows him to be ahead of the crowd but maybe on occasions less strong on theory which is where the disagreements come from.

Beauty of the thread is we have inputs from both sides - Lethal combo! 😀

That's the most logical and accurate post I've ever read on this thread. I love a good debate, but I can't pick any holes in that whatsoever, completely agree

I don't take offence at all. I think I have a better grasp of gambling theory than most people generally, but when it comes to the people specifically on this community, I'm very much the scholar.

Point two is interesting because I often get the feeling that the prices bookies set on motorsport are just nonsensical at times. They tend to miss quite basic indicators of how a weekend will progress. I suppose in a sport this technical that's easily done though.

I have a personal goal to get motorsport as the most profitable topic on TFT, so far myself and Doobs (and a few others) have lifted it pretty much from the bottom of the pile up to 5th. There's still a long way to go though.

[tikay]

Great, wasn't it?

Conducted exactly as it should be between grown ups, & we all learned a bit.

[SuuPRlim]

sorry tikay meant to post at the start of the month, i put £50 on the darts for fred a cpl of weeks ago - leave it on account though i'll do some more for you

[Karabiner]

Just me that makes West Ham cracking bet @2/1 then - I can see Carroll having one of his unplayable afternoons against a weakened and out of sorts cherries side.

Cue a comfortable 2-0 home win and more woe for my FF team and chelters fund.

[Chompy]

Posh done their usual. Start well, look dangerous, fail to convert, then get caught out at a set piece. Free header. GG.

Oxford could easily have had another one or two since then. Wind completely taken out of Poshie sails. Probably give up second half as per.

[Rod Paradise]

I'm convinced something is majorly wrong behind the scenes at Posh. Maybe worse than Arsenal. Most likely McCann.

There's a lot of quality in this squad but it's now nine defeats from the last 13 games, with the last two wins coming against ten-man Shrews (who would have won had they kept 11) and nine-man Rochdale (off-day).

Lee Angol...one goal all season, looking like he's petrified of making a mistake some of the time, and like he couldn't care less on other occasions...goes to Lincoln and scores a hat-trick in his first game. Yes it's a lower level and he's in a dominant team, but that isn't it.

Another blowout v Oxford wouldn't surprise at all. Have £25 on Oxford-Oxford @ 17-5 with Choral, £10 on Oxford o2.5 goals @ 9-2 with Billy, and £5 Oxford o3.5 goals @ 14-1 with Choral again.

A cash Chompy, nice one.

Sickening end for me though - misread the Oxford;Oxfprd 17/5 - bet Oxford to win both halves at 17/2... Peterborough down to 10 men, 2-0 down, 1-0 each half, nice win... Peterborough score a consolation in the 92nd minute.

Keep them up mate, good tips.