Tips for Tikay

[Ironside]

Also Southampton to top the table by end of August at 13/1.....Swansea and WHU at home followed by Huddersfield away..... 9 points there for the taking. Goal difference is gonna be crucial but they could feasibly net a fair few goals whilst keeping them out at the other end (with or without VVD)

fixtures are in clusters this season

12 Aug 2017   15:00   Swansea City   Home   Premier League   
19 Aug 2017   15:00   West Ham United   Home   Premier League   
26 Aug 2017   15:00   Huddersfield Town   Away   Premier League   
09 Sep 2017   15:00   Watford   Home   Premier League   
16 Sep 2017   12:30   Crystal Palace   Away   Premier League   
23 Sep 2017   15:00   Manchester United   Home   Premier League   
30 Sep 2017   15:00   Stoke City   Away   Premier League   
14 Oct 2017   15:00   Newcastle United   Home   Premier League   
21 Oct 2017   15:00   West Bromwich Albion   Home   Premier League   
28 Oct 2017   15:00   Brighton and Hove Albion   Away   Premier League   
04 Nov 2017   15:00   Burnley   Home   Premier League   

first 11 games only 1 top 7 team (finished above us) from last season and thats at home

next 10 games 7 are against teams in top 7 last year

18 Nov 2017   15:00   Liverpool   Away   Premier League   
25 Nov 2017   15:00   Everton   Home   Premier League   
29 Nov 2017   19:45   Manchester City   Away   Premier League   
02 Dec 2017   15:00   Bournemouth   Away   Premier League   
10 Dec 2017   15:00   Arsenal   Home   Premier League   
13 Dec 2017   19:45   Leicester City   Home   Premier League   
16 Dec 2017   15:00   Chelsea   Away   Premier League   
23 Dec 2017   15:00   Huddersfield Town   Home   Premier League   
26 Dec 2017   15:00   Tottenham Hotspur   Away   Premier League   
30 Dec 2017   15:00   Manchester United   Away   Premier League   

next 11 games 2 against top 7 and again both at home
01 Jan 2018   15:00   Crystal Palace   Home   Premier League   
13 Jan 2018   15:00   Watford   Away   Premier League   
20 Jan 2018   15:00   Tottenham Hotspur   Home   Premier League   
31 Jan 2018   19:45   Brighton and Hove Albion   Home   Premier League   
03 Feb 2018   15:00   West Bromwich Albion   Away   Premier League   
10 Feb 2018   15:00   Liverpool   Home   Premier League   
24 Feb 2018   15:00   Burnley   Away   Premier League   
03 Mar 2018   15:00   Stoke City   Home   Premier League   
10 Mar 2018   15:00   Newcastle United   Away   Premier League   
17 Mar 2018   15:00   Swansea City   Away   Premier League   
31 Mar 2018   15:00   West Ham United   Away   Premier League   

last 7 games include 4 against the top 7


07 Apr 2018   15:00   Arsenal   Away   Premier League   
14 Apr 2018   15:00   Chelsea   Home   Premier League   
21 Apr 2018   15:00   Leicester City   Away   Premier League   
28 Apr 2018   15:00   Bournemouth   Home   Premier League   
05 May 2018   15:00   Everton   Away   Premier League   
13 May 2018   15:00   Manchester City   Home   Premier League   


this gives the team time to settle with new manager and a honeymoon effect
so we should be back early for a good finish laying when the fixtures turn bad
then backing when the pundits are saying we have bad form as the fixtures turn good again
to lay off before the end of the season where we will finish between 8-14

I have 3 Saints players in my fantasy football team simply because of that run of games at the start! Probs have to move them on by November but by then they should have hauled in a fair few points.

i thought i had posted about this before but maybe it was just on a saints FB group

after 11 games we will be world beaters new manager will be hottest thing since sliced bread and  it will be VVD who?
then by the new year we will have bottled it etc and then bigged up about a top 6 finish before the calls for everyone to be sacked after blowing up and finishing mid table


wont have anything to do with strength of schedule

[RobS]

Betfair/Paddy 15/8 City to win Prem, exchange is 2.74 to lay.

Strange they don't hoover up the £19k wanting to back City at 2.78 on their own exchange if they want to lay 2.875.

[DropTheHammer]

T20 cricket ,live on Sky tomorrow

Hampshire v Glamorgan.

Top Hampshire batsman.

There is a bit of value in Dawson at 25/1 on PP and betunfair. As low as 11/2 elsewhere.

Rossouw and Carberry are injured (although in the betting) Dawson will bat 4 or 5. He just top scored for Hants in the championship match with 75. If there is a mini collapse at the top early on...he generally bats sensibly and build an innings.

https://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/natwest-t20-blast/hampshire-v-glamorgan/top-hampshire-batsman

There could also be some value in backing opener Vince at 2.1 for over 0.5 sixes with Ladbrokes or PP. In the ten t20 matches this season Vince has hit a six in 60% of them. This is a home match and when Sky were at Kent the boundary rope was further in to accommodate their Bunsen burners. Anyone know if this is the case at the Rose Bowl?

Also, Sky have Vince at 2.2 for over 1.5 sixes-more weight to my view that PP/Laddies are out of line.

Hopefully Vince will be concentrating more-so with Carberry + Rossouw injured, and it being on Sky.

There is no oddschecker market for this but at Paddy Power it is under Player > Team A Batsman B number of

Recommend £15

[doubleup]

That interview with the IAAF head of medicine was a car crash on the BBC just now.  Not one presenter was capable of understanding what they were told. 

Apparently someone slipped in and nicked the betunfair free money on Isaac Makela in the win and podium market for the 200m both @ 999-1 when he was refused entry to the event for the sickness issue.  Obv he's playing the "this is the man" 80s VW advert on youtube atm.

[arbboy]

http://www.gbgb.org.uk/resultsMeeting.aspx?id=150043

Should be fun and games tomorrow afternoon for romford bags after the heavy downpour of rain today.  Track was virtually unraceable tonight by all accounts and the times were incredibly slow.

[tikay]

US PGA Golf Championship

Don't forget, live coverage of this will be on TV from 6pm until just after midnight via the BBC Red Button.

Commentators & pundits include Sir Peter Alliss & Ken Brown.

[rinswun]

Can we stick a fiver each way on Kyle Stanley for the US PGA?

Quail Hollow undoubtedly a ball strikers course where bad putters can make up for it with quality approach shots. He is amongst the best in the business with his irons and driver and the change to Bermudagrass greens should benefit him as it tends to level the playing field a bit. Won last month and is a huge price. Pretty much 150s across the board so wherever Fred can get on with the best place terms.

[TightEnd]

the winner of the US PGA has always placed in the top 22 of the WGC Bridgestone in all 10 times it has been played the week prior.

Secondly, 14 of the 17 last winners of the PGA already had a win under their belt that season.

these (and no others in the field) fit those pair of criteria

Jordan Spieth,
dustin Johnson,
Hideki Matsuyama,
Brooks Koepka,
Ricky Fowler,

Adam Hadwin,
Hudson Swafford,
Kevin Chappell,
Xander Schauffele,
Daniel Berger
Jhonathon Vegas.

any thoughts on that lot? the outsiders in particular

[TightEnd]

Can we stick a fiver each way on Kyle Stanley for the US PGA?

Quail Hollow undoubtedly a ball strikers course where bad putters can make up for it with quality approach shots. He is amongst the best in the business with his irons and driver and the change to Bermudagrass greens should benefit him as it tends to level the playing field a bit. Won last month and is a huge price. Pretty much 150s across the board so wherever Fred can get on with the best place terms.

Kyle Stanley USPGA Championship Winner
150/1 Each Way (7 Places at 1/5 Odds)
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £910.00

[TightEnd]

a reminder, we have this running forus from way back

USPGA   Rahm   100/1   10   £5 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4,5

28-1 currently

[BigAdz]

the winner of the US PGA has always placed in the top 22 of the WGC Bridgestone in all 10 times it has been played the week prior.

Secondly, 14 of the 17 last winners of the PGA already had a win under their belt that season.

these (and no others in the field) fit those pair of criteria

Jordan Spieth,
dustin Johnson,
Hideki Matsuyama,
Brooks Koepka,
Ricky Fowler,

Adam Hadwin,
Hudson Swafford,
Kevin Chappell,
Xander Schauffele,
Daniel Berger
Jhonathon Vegas.

any thoughts on that lot? the outsiders in particular

Interesting stat.

Of those, I have a small ew on Kevin C, as he fits a few other trends, and he has finally learnt how to close out.

I also have Xander and Hoff(shock) as first round leaders.

[ripple11]

T20 cricket ,live on Sky tomorrow

Hampshire v Glamorgan.

Top Hampshire batsman.

There is a bit of value in Dawson at 25/1 on PP and betunfair. As low as 11/2 elsewhere.

Rossouw and Carberry are injured (although in the betting) Dawson will bat 4 or 5. He just top scored for Hants in the championship match with 75. If there is a mini collapse at the top early on...he generally bats sensibly and build an innings.

https://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/natwest-t20-blast/hampshire-v-glamorgan/top-hampshire-batsman

There could also be some value in backing opener Vince at 2.1 for over 0.5 sixes with Ladbrokes or PP. In the ten t20 matches this season Vince has hit a six in 60% of them. This is a home match and when Sky were at Kent the boundary rope was further in to accommodate their Bunsen burners. Anyone know if this is the case at the Rose Bowl?

Also, Sky have Vince at 2.2 for over 1.5 sixes-more weight to my view that PP/Laddies are out of line.

Hopefully Vince will be concentrating more-so with Carberry + Rossouw injured, and it being on Sky.

There is no oddschecker market for this but at Paddy Power it is under Player > Team A Batsman B number of

Recommend £15

Like this bet too.

Regarding the boundary/pitch position; The girls are playing live on Sky beforehand at 2.15 and I would presume the guys will play on the same pitch...although the boundary ropes will be enlarged. Might give some indication for later. 

[SuuPRlim]

Aukland Darts Masters

No MVG, PW not at this best, Garry claiming tired, Barney form somewhat erratic, looks all set up for Phil Taylor who loves it down under, seems the freshest, the best form. 7/2 in the toughest part of the draw again though not for me.

Two great outright bets I think are Daryl Gurney 14/1 (1/3 12) and Micheal Smith 16/1 (1/3 12)

Smith has the easiest draw in the competition, he didn't show up for the matchplay but has been in good form this season, still suffering from a little inconsistency. Gurney's draw is a little tougher facing barney in the second round but outside of Taylor he probably has the best form of anyone, and season long he's been very impressive.

Would recommend smallish bet on Gurney and a small bet on Smith. If you can get on at 365 for Gurney?

[Karabiner]

the winner of the US PGA has always placed in the top 22 of the WGC Bridgestone in all 10 times it has been played the week prior.

Secondly, 14 of the 17 last winners of the PGA already had a win under their belt that season.

these (and no others in the field) fit those pair of criteria

Jordan Spieth,
dustin Johnson,
Hideki Matsuyama,
Brooks Koepka,
Ricky Fowler,

Adam Hadwin,
Hudson Swafford,
Kevin Chappell,
Xander Schauffele,
Daniel Berger
Jhonathon Vegas.

any thoughts on that lot? the outsiders in particular

An interesting stat about Quail Hollow GC is that a bloke called Derek Ernst - who has exactly zero top-15's before or since - won there a few years ago.

[arbboy]

http://www.espn.co.uk/nba/story/_/id/20294509/philadelphia-76ers-boston-celtics-play-nba-london-game-jan-11

This year's NBA o2 London game has been announced for January.  Better than recent ones.