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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13331912 times)
aaron1867
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« Reply #136575 on: August 19, 2019, 04:18:58 PM »

Anyone else (apart from Ralph and Adz) think Arsenal should be odds on to top 4?   They just look full of goals to me and on a totally different level to Man U and Chelski.   6/5 on the machine looks big to me.  The 2/9 top 6 with skybet looks like absolute theft.

Why do you think they're a totally different level to Man Utd and Chelsea? I don't disagree, but find it hard to have an opinion on it after one game? So little to take out out of it, especially Man Utd. I think Chelsea are in huge danger of being out of the top 6 all together.

Where are the goals coming from at Man U?  Sanchez is going to be shipped off to Italy before the deadline.   Lukaku not replaced.  You really trust Rashford/Martial to put in 50 odd goals between them?

I am not disagreeing with you - I don't mind your bet tbf.

But just find it hard to gauge a huge opinion on this after one game? I mean Arsenal do look full of goals, but they also looked like they could have let in 3+ against Burnley.
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tikay
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« Reply #136576 on: August 19, 2019, 04:50:50 PM »

£75 each way Patrick Cantley in the Tour Championship golf at 5/1 1/4 the first 4 if you can get it looks rock solid this week. The market is far too short at the back end and too big at the top in my opinion.

Can't get the 5/1 anywhere, or I'd have put it on for grumpy.

Oi. Why are you inferring Tighty is grumpy?
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Marky147
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« Reply #136577 on: August 19, 2019, 05:14:42 PM »

£75 each way Patrick Cantley in the Tour Championship golf at 5/1 1/4 the first 4 if you can get it looks rock solid this week. The market is far too short at the back end and too big at the top in my opinion.

Can't get the 5/1 anywhere, or I'd have put it on for grumpy.

Oi. Why are you inferring Tighty is grumpy?

Ha!

Tighty should be, but somehow manages not to be.
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Pokerpops
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« Reply #136578 on: August 19, 2019, 07:29:59 PM »

Anyone else (apart from Ralph and Adz) think Arsenal should be odds on to top 4?   They just look full of goals to me and on a totally different level to Man U and Chelski.   6/5 on the machine looks big to me.  The 2/9 top 6 with skybet looks like absolute theft.

I assume you have Man City, Liverpool and Tottenham filling three of those spots?

Which means you are effectively betting on Arsenal to finish above United. What price is that? At this stage of the season i’d say it’s evens, so anything above that for either team looks sound.

I’d rather take the 2/9 for top six which is as you described.
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hhyftrftdr
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« Reply #136579 on: August 19, 2019, 07:34:13 PM »

Anyone else (apart from Ralph and Adz) think Arsenal should be odds on to top 4?   They just look full of goals to me and on a totally different level to Man U and Chelski.   6/5 on the machine looks big to me.  The 2/9 top 6 with skybet looks like absolute theft.

I assume you have Man City, Liverpool and Tottenham filling three of those spots?

Which means you are effectively betting on Arsenal to finish above United. What price is that? At this stage of the season i’d say it’s evens, so anything above that for either team looks sound.

I’d rather take the 2/9 for top six which is as you described.

Don't forget Man City B team for the other top 4 spot Wink
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arbboy
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« Reply #136580 on: August 19, 2019, 09:12:00 PM »

Anyone else (apart from Ralph and Adz) think Arsenal should be odds on to top 4?   They just look full of goals to me and on a totally different level to Man U and Chelski.   6/5 on the machine looks big to me.  The 2/9 top 6 with skybet looks like absolute theft.

I assume you have Man City, Liverpool and Tottenham filling three of those spots?

Which means you are effectively betting on Arsenal to finish above United. What price is that? At this stage of the season i’d say it’s evens, so anything above that for either team looks sound.

I’d rather take the 2/9 for top six which is as you described.

I think you are right tbh about the 2/9 might get bigger tomorrow if Man U go top tonight.   
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Peter-27
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« Reply #136581 on: August 19, 2019, 11:04:00 PM »

Here are some other solid pre-season spots I have found.

- Gasly to finish exactly 6th in the drivers' and Red Bull to finish exactly 3rd in the constructors' championships @ 9/4. Should be more like 6/4.
https://m.skybet.com/formula-1/formula-1-2019-season/event/22597676

- Season match bets
Gasly to beat Verstappen @ 6/1 (William Hill best price), should be more like 3/1.
Albon to beat Kvyat @ 7/4 (William Hill best price), should be EVS. Curiously, WH are offering 7/4 on Albon for Albon vs Kvyat, and 13/8 for Albon on Kvyat vs Albon.
Stroll to beat Perez @ 3/1 (William Hill best price), should be 2/1.
Giovinazzi to beat Raikkonen @ 9/2 (Ladbrokes best price), should be 3/1.



Interesting development for the Albon bet (altho obv disastrous for the Gasly/Red Bull position bet that was on track to pay)
Red Bull: Alexander Albon to replace Pierre Gasly

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/49317809

Despite being well behind Kvyat, Albon must now be a huge fav.

Indeed. Although, it's really quite possible that Albon struggles just as much as Gasly, and then we see Kvyat promoted back into the Red Bull seat. Who knows how this will play out. The Red Bull driver academy is .. brutal .. to say the least. Albon is my favourite driver on the grid (from a supporter point of view), but I am extremely concerned that this is too much, too soon. It's the type of move that can destroy a career.
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Chompy
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« Reply #136582 on: August 20, 2019, 12:33:39 AM »

James Maddison should probably be favourite for PFA Young POTY. For sure he shouldn't be anything like 20-1.
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Doobs
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« Reply #136583 on: August 21, 2019, 12:09:16 PM »

About time we had a horse bet.

1.50 Goodwood.

Last year in this race Boy in the Bar went off 8-1 with Ryan up. This year he comes into the race off a pound lower mark and in far better form. He won his last race comfortably at Ayr, which had been preceeded by an eye catching race here at Goodwood, where he is a C&D winner.

Ryan back on board and he is nearly twice the price of last year at 14s.

Suggest a little ew dabble.

Thanks Adzy.

We have exactly that, £20 EW @ 14/1 with Betfred, Boy in the Bar.

BET PLACED

Have you tried using paddy power? They are laying to lose £500 to anybody on big races now.   That explains how I can bet again with them.

No, never crossed my mind.

Thanks, I'll give them a try.

Ha,  they seem to be back to £100 for me today.  Maybe it is just Saturdays? 
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
engy
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« Reply #136584 on: August 21, 2019, 02:23:17 PM »

Any fancys for York Doobs?
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Doobs
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« Reply #136585 on: August 24, 2019, 09:07:19 AM »

About time we had a horse bet.

1.50 Goodwood.

Last year in this race Boy in the Bar went off 8-1 with Ryan up. This year he comes into the race off a pound lower mark and in far better form. He won his last race comfortably at Ayr, which had been preceeded by an eye catching race here at Goodwood, where he is a C&D winner.

Ryan back on board and he is nearly twice the price of last year at 14s.

Suggest a little ew dabble.

Thanks Adzy.

We have exactly that, £20 EW @ 14/1 with Betfred, Boy in the Bar.

BET PLACED

Have you tried using paddy power? They are laying to lose £500 to anybody on big races now.   That explains how I can bet again with them.

No, never crossed my mind.

Thanks, I'll give them a try.

Ha,  they seem to be back to £100 for me today.  Maybe it is just Saturdays? 

I found a betfair promo for Cheltenham, and it only applied from 10am.   Given my experience this week, it is probable the bet where I was limited to £100 was before 10am.   The offer is also limited to win only, but they seem happy laying each ways (though maybe they wouldn't be if the race had a really bad shape?).  I haven't tried betting on the sportsbook, but guess it applies there too.

Sorry engy, didn't see your question earlier.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
BigAdz
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« Reply #136586 on: August 24, 2019, 11:00:48 AM »

Sky 8 places in the Ebor!

Magic.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #136587 on: August 24, 2019, 11:09:57 AM »

Sky 8 places in the Ebor!

Magic.

Any thoughts? I really like Raymond Tusk, conditions to suit and a few form/collateral form angles that make him look overpriced at 20’s. Win only, unless you’re lucky enough to have the 8 places.
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Doobs
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« Reply #136588 on: August 24, 2019, 11:43:48 AM »

Sky 8 places in the Ebor!

Magic.

Any thoughts? I really like Raymond Tusk, conditions to suit and a few form/collateral form angles that make him look overpriced at 20’s. Win only, unless you’re lucky enough to have the 8 places.

I like Raymond Tusk too.  Serms to like the firm too.   Why do you need 8 places? Auarter first 5 or fifth first 7 are both very good.   I would much rather take quarter first 5 at 20/1 than 14/1 fifth first 7.   
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
Horneris
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« Reply #136589 on: August 24, 2019, 11:48:59 AM »

I like Raymond Tusk too.  Serms to like the firm too.   Why do you need 8 places? Auarter first 5 or fifth first 7 are both very good.   I would much rather take quarter first 5 at 20/1 than 14/1 fifth first 7.   

If he benefits from best odds guaranteed i'd rather take 14s 7 places, as likely to go off 18s,20s.

Also like the horse. Have also backed Desert Skyline
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