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Betting Tips and Sport Discussion
Tips for Tikay
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Author
Topic: Tips for Tikay (Read 16467231 times)
TightEnd
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #17595 on:
October 05, 2012, 12:42:03 PM »
Quote from: hector62 on October 05, 2012, 09:21:26 AM
Morning Mr Tikay.
I have decided to add yet another ritual. I currently have the Tikay winning bet cake celebration, the poker MTT winning celebratory dance and to them I am adding the winning money in my sleep burst of song. Not decided on a song yet but will mull it over. An excellent NFL tip there TYVM Mr Bad Beat.
It is a huge day for our 6's bet. If you read Mr Tightends post in this thread yesterday you will have seen that he alluded to a possibility of a hedge bet on the Windies today. Have you given it any thought and if so what is your plan? Will it be some ummmmm and ahhhhing or decisive action?
The thread has £20 on Australia to be top sixes team at 11-2
If they win today, that bet is basically home
They are 1 six behind WI (28 to 29), and if they win they have the final to overtake the WI, even if behind after today
So basically you have £110 profit if Australia win today
If Australia lost today, that bet is down
WI are 11/8 to win today
It is my contention that if they win the toss and bat they are an odds-on shot
http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/international/twenty20-world-cup/australia-v-west-indies
You could put £40 of your Australia return onto the WI at 11/8 and guarantee yourself a profit
Either WI win today (+£55) (less the £20 Australia sixes stake to be conservative) or Australia win today and your sixes bet comes in (+£110-£40=£70)
The only scenario where this is not a perfect hedge is if WI score more sixes than Australia today and LOSE, and Australia do not overcome this in the final
Yes?
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My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
typhoon13
Hero Member
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Posts: 3419
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #17596 on:
October 05, 2012, 12:47:48 PM »
Quote from: TightEnd on October 05, 2012, 12:42:03 PM
Quote from: hector62 on October 05, 2012, 09:21:26 AM
Morning Mr Tikay.
I have decided to add yet another ritual. I currently have the Tikay winning bet cake celebration, the poker MTT winning celebratory dance and to them I am adding the winning money in my sleep burst of song. Not decided on a song yet but will mull it over. An excellent NFL tip there TYVM Mr Bad Beat.
It is a huge day for our 6's bet. If you read Mr Tightends post in this thread yesterday you will have seen that he alluded to a possibility of a hedge bet on the Windies today. Have you given it any thought and if so what is your plan? Will it be some ummmmm and ahhhhing or decisive action?
The thread has £20 on Australia to be top sixes team at 11-2
If they win today, that bet is basically home
They are 1 six behind WI (28 to 29), and if they win they have the final to overtake the WI, even if behind after today
So basically you have £110 profit if Australia win today
If Australia lost today, that bet is down
WI are 11/8 to win today
It is my contention that if they win the toss and bat they are an odds-on shot
http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/international/twenty20-world-cup/australia-v-west-indies
You could put £40 of your Australia return onto the WI at 11/8 and guarantee yourself a profit
Either WI win today (+£55) (less the £20 Australia sixes stake to be conservative) or Australia win today and your sixes bet comes in (+£110-£40=£70)
The only scenario where this is not a perfect hedge is if WI score more sixes than Australia today and LOSE, and Australia do not overcome this in the final
Yes?
Excellent Tighty
Love to see someone hedging to protect potential profit.
Logged
Doobs
Hero Member
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Posts: 16733
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #17597 on:
October 05, 2012, 12:57:37 PM »
Quote from: typhoon13 on October 05, 2012, 12:47:48 PM
Quote from: TightEnd on October 05, 2012, 12:42:03 PM
Quote from: hector62 on October 05, 2012, 09:21:26 AM
Morning Mr Tikay.
I have decided to add yet another ritual. I currently have the Tikay winning bet cake celebration, the poker MTT winning celebratory dance and to them I am adding the winning money in my sleep burst of song. Not decided on a song yet but will mull it over. An excellent NFL tip there TYVM Mr Bad Beat.
It is a huge day for our 6's bet. If you read Mr Tightends post in this thread yesterday you will have seen that he alluded to a possibility of a hedge bet on the Windies today. Have you given it any thought and if so what is your plan? Will it be some ummmmm and ahhhhing or decisive action?
The thread has £20 on Australia to be top sixes team at 11-2
If they win today, that bet is basically home
They are 1 six behind WI (28 to 29), and if they win they have the final to overtake the WI, even if behind after today
So basically you have £110 profit if Australia win today
If Australia lost today, that bet is down
WI are 11/8 to win today
It is my contention that if they win the toss and bat they are an odds-on shot
http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/international/twenty20-world-cup/australia-v-west-indies
You could put £40 of your Australia return onto the WI at 11/8 and guarantee yourself a profit
Either WI win today (+£55) (less the £20 Australia sixes stake to be conservative) or Australia win today and your sixes bet comes in (+£110-£40=£70)
The only scenario where this is not a perfect hedge is if WI score more sixes than Australia today and LOSE, and Australia do not overcome this in the final
Yes?
Excellent Tighty
Love to see someone hedging to protect potential profit.
The 11/8 looks a very good bet regardless. It is part of blue squares 100% book promotion and beats the betfair price. Must be a good thing.
Please note I have a 100% losing record on blue square.
Logged
Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
tikay
Administrator
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Posts: I am a geek!!
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #17598 on:
October 05, 2012, 01:51:11 PM »
Quote from: TightEnd on October 05, 2012, 12:42:03 PM
Quote from: hector62 on October 05, 2012, 09:21:26 AM
Morning Mr Tikay.
I have decided to add yet another ritual. I currently have the Tikay winning bet cake celebration, the poker MTT winning celebratory dance and to them I am adding the winning money in my sleep burst of song. Not decided on a song yet but will mull it over. An excellent NFL tip there TYVM Mr Bad Beat.
It is a huge day for our 6's bet. If you read Mr Tightends post in this thread yesterday you will have seen that he alluded to a possibility of a hedge bet on the Windies today. Have you given it any thought and if so what is your plan? Will it be some ummmmm and ahhhhing or decisive action?
The thread has £20 on Australia to be top sixes team at 11-2
If they win today, that bet is basically home
They are 1 six behind WI (28 to 29), and if they win they have the final to overtake the WI, even if behind after today
So basically you have £110 profit if Australia win today
If Australia lost today, that bet is down
WI are 11/8 to win today
It is my contention that if they win the toss and bat they are an odds-on shot
http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/international/twenty20-world-cup/australia-v-west-indies
You could put £40 of your Australia return onto the WI at 11/8 and guarantee yourself a profit
Either WI win today (+£55) (less the £20 Australia sixes stake to be conservative) or Australia win today and your sixes bet comes in (+£110-£40=£70)
The only scenario where this is not a perfect hedge is if WI score more sixes than Australia today and LOSE, and Australia do not overcome this in the final
Yes?
Yeah, but will you take the heat when Camel shouts at me?
I'm not exactly 100% sure on this. We only have £20 staked, & the nit in me is happy with that, but the emerging degen wants to have hector's cake & eat it.
Anyway, I've dithered all morning, so let's do it.
We have £40 @ 11/8 with Blue Square on West Indies to in today.
ON
West Indies @ 11/8
Market
Match Winner
Event
ICC World Twenty20
2nd Semi-Final - Australia v West Indies
2012-10-05 14:30:00
Bet Type
Bet Type
Win Single
Unit Stake
£40.00
Number of Units
x1
Total Stake
£40.00
Time and Date Placed
2012-10-05 13:42:34
Receipt Number
O/0891659/0000097
Logged
All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link -
http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY
(copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
TightEnd
Administrator
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: I am a geek!!
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #17599 on:
October 05, 2012, 01:51:12 PM »
Leighton Baines 2-1 to start next week v San Marino, Corals
Get on
following, an hour ago
Ashley Cole @TheRealAC3
Hahahahaa, well done #fa I lied did I, #BUNCHOFTWATS
Logged
My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
TightEnd
Administrator
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: I am a geek!!
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #17600 on:
October 05, 2012, 01:53:39 PM »
Quote from: TightEnd on October 05, 2012, 01:51:12 PM
Leighton Baines 2-1 to start next week v San Marino, Corals
Get on
following, an hour ago
Ashley Cole @TheRealAC3
Hahahahaa, well done #fa I lied did I, #BUNCHOFTWATS
now 5/4 grrr
http://sports.coral.co.uk/sport/en#/?key=site_search.do_site_search&query_string=leighton%2520baines
Logged
My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
tikay
Administrator
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: I am a geek!!
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #17601 on:
October 05, 2012, 01:56:55 PM »
Quote from: TightEnd on October 05, 2012, 01:53:39 PM
Quote from: TightEnd on October 05, 2012, 01:51:12 PM
Leighton Baines 2-1 to start next week v San Marino, Corals
Get on
following, an hour ago
Ashley Cole @TheRealAC3
Hahahahaa, well done #fa I lied did I, #BUNCHOFTWATS
now 5/4 grrr
http://sports.coral.co.uk/sport/en#/?key=site_search.do_site_search&query_string=leighton%2520baines
Ww got it.
We have £40 @ 5/4 with Corals, Leighton Baines to start v San Marino.
ON
Leigton Baines Special - Leighton Baines Special
Leighton Baines to start against San Marino @ 5/4
Stake: £40.00 (£40.00 x 1 line)
Estimated Returns: £ 90.00
Logged
All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link -
http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY
(copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
tikay
Administrator
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: I am a geek!!
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #17602 on:
October 05, 2012, 02:23:36 PM »
Feel better about that WI bet now - they won the toss and are batting first.
Logged
All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link -
http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY
(copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
Doobs
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 16733
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #17603 on:
October 05, 2012, 02:33:26 PM »
Quote from: tikay on October 05, 2012, 02:23:36 PM
Feel better about that WI bet now - they won the toss and are batting first.
Camel shouldn't be irritated by you taking a price that is good value that happens to hedge the risk from a previous position. In this case it was a price that looked good in a 100% book that beat Betfair. It just happened to hedge a previous bet too. ie the hedging was just the icing on the cake and not the cake itself.
It is the random closing of positions because the price has moved in our favour that should irritate him. Though I do hesitate because the range of things that irritate camel is way wider than I have implied here.
Logged
Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
horseplayer
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 10314
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #17604 on:
October 05, 2012, 02:40:38 PM »
if the bet was taking because the bet on its own was good value then thats fine imo
wont start the whole hedging debate again been done to death
Logged
The Camel
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 17076
Under my tree, being a troll.
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #17605 on:
October 05, 2012, 03:00:17 PM »
Quote from: Doobs on October 05, 2012, 02:33:26 PM
Quote from: tikay on October 05, 2012, 02:23:36 PM
Feel better about that WI bet now - they won the toss and are batting first.
Camel shouldn't be irritated by you taking a price that is good value that happens to hedge the risk from a previous position. In this case it was a price that looked good in a 100% book that beat Betfair. It just happened to hedge a previous bet too. ie the hedging was just the icing on the cake and not the cake itself.
It is the random closing of positions because the price has moved in our favour that should irritate him. Though I do hesitate because the range of things that irritate camel is way wider than I have implied here.
This.
I don't mind greening out at all, but only if it's for one of two reasons:
1. You get a position purely because you think the price will shorten, not because you think it's a value bet.
2. You have a bet and now think it's gone too short. (Although in this case you really should be laying the selection for heavier than you've backed it - although psychological reasons might stop you doing this)
Greening out just to take a profit is terrible punting and pissing equity against the wall.
Logged
Congratulations to the 2012 League Champion - Stapleton Atheists
"Keith The Camel, a true champion!" - Brent Horner 30th December 2012
"I dont think you're a wanker Keith" David Nicholson 4th March 2013
doubleup
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 7131
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #17606 on:
October 05, 2012, 03:05:32 PM »
Quote from: The Camel on October 05, 2012, 03:00:17 PM
Quote from: Doobs on October 05, 2012, 02:33:26 PM
Quote from: tikay on October 05, 2012, 02:23:36 PM
Feel better about that WI bet now - they won the toss and are batting first.
Camel shouldn't be irritated by you taking a price that is good value that happens to hedge the risk from a previous position. In this case it was a price that looked good in a 100% book that beat Betfair. It just happened to hedge a previous bet too. ie the hedging was just the icing on the cake and not the cake itself.
It is the random closing of positions because the price has moved in our favour that should irritate him. Though I do hesitate because the range of things that irritate camel is way wider than I have implied here.
This.
I don't mind greening out at all, but only if it's for one of two reasons:
1. You get a position purely because you think the price will shorten, not because you think it's a value bet.
2. You have a bet and now think it's gone too short. (Although in this case you really should be laying the selection for heavier than you've backed it - although psychological reasons might stop you doing this)
Greening out just to take a profit is terrible punting and pissing equity against the wall.
I have discovered recently that you can give up a bit to close a position as you pay much less commission in comparison to letting the bet run. The effect is particularly marked on movements on short prices like 2 > 1.8
Logged
The Camel
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 17076
Under my tree, being a troll.
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #17607 on:
October 05, 2012, 03:07:54 PM »
Quote from: doubleup on October 05, 2012, 03:05:32 PM
Quote from: The Camel on October 05, 2012, 03:00:17 PM
Quote from: Doobs on October 05, 2012, 02:33:26 PM
Quote from: tikay on October 05, 2012, 02:23:36 PM
Feel better about that WI bet now - they won the toss and are batting first.
Camel shouldn't be irritated by you taking a price that is good value that happens to hedge the risk from a previous position. In this case it was a price that looked good in a 100% book that beat Betfair. It just happened to hedge a previous bet too. ie the hedging was just the icing on the cake and not the cake itself.
It is the random closing of positions because the price has moved in our favour that should irritate him. Though I do hesitate because the range of things that irritate camel is way wider than I have implied here.
This.
I don't mind greening out at all, but only if it's for one of two reasons:
1. You get a position purely because you think the price will shorten, not because you think it's a value bet.
2. You have a bet and now think it's gone too short. (Although in this case you really should be laying the selection for heavier than you've backed it - although psychological reasons might stop you doing this)
Greening out just to take a profit is terrible punting and pissing equity against the wall.
I have discovered recently that you can give up a bit to close a position as you pay much less commission in comparison to letting the bet run. The effect is particularly marked on movements on short prices like 2 > 1.8
Surely if you let the bets run you'll be paying less commish in a jiffy?
Logged
Congratulations to the 2012 League Champion - Stapleton Atheists
"Keith The Camel, a true champion!" - Brent Horner 30th December 2012
"I dont think you're a wanker Keith" David Nicholson 4th March 2013
doubleup
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 7131
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #17608 on:
October 05, 2012, 03:19:04 PM »
Imagine that you back £100 at 2 thinking that the price will move, but it doesn't. If you decide to green up you lose nothing and pay no commission, if you decide to let the bet run you will pay commission when it wins. So the smaller the price difference the greater the difference in commission paid between letting it run and greening.
eg on a movement of 2 >1.8 £100 bet would pay £.56 commission on greening and £2.78 letting it run
«
Last Edit: October 05, 2012, 03:24:46 PM by doubleup
»
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The Camel
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 17076
Under my tree, being a troll.
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #17609 on:
October 05, 2012, 03:23:42 PM »
Quote from: doubleup on October 05, 2012, 03:19:04 PM
Imagine that you back £100 at 2 thinking that the price will move, but it doesn't. If you decide to green up you lose nothing and pay no commission, if you decide to let the bet run you will pay commission when it wins. So the smaller the price difference the greater the difference in commission paid between letting it run and greening.
That's fin if you are having the bet purely because you think the price will move, not because you think it's a good bet at evens.
Logged
Congratulations to the 2012 League Champion - Stapleton Atheists
"Keith The Camel, a true champion!" - Brent Horner 30th December 2012
"I dont think you're a wanker Keith" David Nicholson 4th March 2013
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