Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Morning Mr Tikay.

I have decided to add yet another ritual. I currently have the Tikay winning bet cake celebration, the poker MTT winning celebratory dance and to them I am  adding the winning money in my sleep burst of song. Not decided on a song yet but will mull it over. An excellent NFL tip there TYVM Mr Bad Beat.

It is a huge day for our 6's bet. If you read Mr Tightends post in this thread yesterday you will have seen that he alluded to a possibility of a hedge bet on the Windies today. Have you given it any thought and if so what is your plan? Will it be some ummmmm and ahhhhing or decisive action?

The thread has £20 on Australia to be top sixes team at 11-2

If they win today, that bet is basically home

They are 1 six behind WI (28 to 29), and if they win they have the final to overtake the WI, even if behind after today

So basically you have £110 profit if Australia win today


If Australia lost today, that bet is down

WI are 11/8 to win today

It is my contention that if they win the toss and bat they are an odds-on shot

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/international/twenty20-world-cup/australia-v-west-indies


You could put £40 of your Australia return onto the WI at 11/8 and guarantee yourself a profit

Either WI win today (+£55) (less the £20 Australia sixes stake to be conservative) or Australia win today and your sixes bet comes in (+£110-£40=£70)


The only scenario where this is not a perfect hedge is if WI score more sixes than Australia today and LOSE, and Australia do not overcome this in the final


Yes?

[typhoon13]

Morning Mr Tikay.

I have decided to add yet another ritual. I currently have the Tikay winning bet cake celebration, the poker MTT winning celebratory dance and to them I am  adding the winning money in my sleep burst of song. Not decided on a song yet but will mull it over. An excellent NFL tip there TYVM Mr Bad Beat.

It is a huge day for our 6's bet. If you read Mr Tightends post in this thread yesterday you will have seen that he alluded to a possibility of a hedge bet on the Windies today. Have you given it any thought and if so what is your plan? Will it be some ummmmm and ahhhhing or decisive action?

The thread has £20 on Australia to be top sixes team at 11-2

If they win today, that bet is basically home

They are 1 six behind WI (28 to 29), and if they win they have the final to overtake the WI, even if behind after today

So basically you have £110 profit if Australia win today


If Australia lost today, that bet is down

WI are 11/8 to win today

It is my contention that if they win the toss and bat they are an odds-on shot

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/international/twenty20-world-cup/australia-v-west-indies


You could put £40 of your Australia return onto the WI at 11/8 and guarantee yourself a profit

Either WI win today (+£55) (less the £20 Australia sixes stake to be conservative) or Australia win today and your sixes bet comes in (+£110-£40=£70)


The only scenario where this is not a perfect hedge is if WI score more sixes than Australia today and LOSE, and Australia do not overcome this in the final


Yes?

Excellent Tighty

Love to see someone hedging to protect potential profit.

[Doobs]

Morning Mr Tikay.

I have decided to add yet another ritual. I currently have the Tikay winning bet cake celebration, the poker MTT winning celebratory dance and to them I am  adding the winning money in my sleep burst of song. Not decided on a song yet but will mull it over. An excellent NFL tip there TYVM Mr Bad Beat.

It is a huge day for our 6's bet. If you read Mr Tightends post in this thread yesterday you will have seen that he alluded to a possibility of a hedge bet on the Windies today. Have you given it any thought and if so what is your plan? Will it be some ummmmm and ahhhhing or decisive action?

The thread has £20 on Australia to be top sixes team at 11-2

If they win today, that bet is basically home

They are 1 six behind WI (28 to 29), and if they win they have the final to overtake the WI, even if behind after today

So basically you have £110 profit if Australia win today


If Australia lost today, that bet is down

WI are 11/8 to win today

It is my contention that if they win the toss and bat they are an odds-on shot

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/international/twenty20-world-cup/australia-v-west-indies


You could put £40 of your Australia return onto the WI at 11/8 and guarantee yourself a profit

Either WI win today (+£55) (less the £20 Australia sixes stake to be conservative) or Australia win today and your sixes bet comes in (+£110-£40=£70)


The only scenario where this is not a perfect hedge is if WI score more sixes than Australia today and LOSE, and Australia do not overcome this in the final


Yes?

Excellent Tighty

Love to see someone hedging to protect potential profit.

The 11/8 looks a very good bet regardless.  It is part of blue squares 100% book promotion and beats the betfair price.  Must be a good thing.

Please note I have a 100% losing record on blue square.

[tikay]

Morning Mr Tikay.

I have decided to add yet another ritual. I currently have the Tikay winning bet cake celebration, the poker MTT winning celebratory dance and to them I am  adding the winning money in my sleep burst of song. Not decided on a song yet but will mull it over. An excellent NFL tip there TYVM Mr Bad Beat.

It is a huge day for our 6's bet. If you read Mr Tightends post in this thread yesterday you will have seen that he alluded to a possibility of a hedge bet on the Windies today. Have you given it any thought and if so what is your plan? Will it be some ummmmm and ahhhhing or decisive action?

The thread has £20 on Australia to be top sixes team at 11-2

If they win today, that bet is basically home

They are 1 six behind WI (28 to 29), and if they win they have the final to overtake the WI, even if behind after today

So basically you have £110 profit if Australia win today


If Australia lost today, that bet is down

WI are 11/8 to win today

It is my contention that if they win the toss and bat they are an odds-on shot

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/international/twenty20-world-cup/australia-v-west-indies


You could put £40 of your Australia return onto the WI at 11/8 and guarantee yourself a profit

Either WI win today (+£55) (less the £20 Australia sixes stake to be conservative) or Australia win today and your sixes bet comes in (+£110-£40=£70)


The only scenario where this is not a perfect hedge is if WI score more sixes than Australia today and LOSE, and Australia do not overcome this in the final


Yes?

Yeah, but will you take the heat when Camel shouts at me?

I'm not exactly 100% sure on this. We only have £20 staked, & the nit in me is happy with that, but the emerging degen wants to have hector's cake & eat it.

Anyway, I've dithered all morning, so let's do it.

We have £40 @ 11/8 with Blue Square on West Indies to in today.

ON


West Indies @ 11/8 
Market
 Match Winner
 
Event
 ICC World Twenty20
2nd Semi-Final - Australia v West Indies
2012-10-05 14:30:00
 
Bet Type
 
Bet Type
 Win Single
 
Unit Stake
 £40.00
 
Number of Units
 x1
 
Total Stake
 £40.00
 
Time and Date Placed
 2012-10-05 13:42:34
 
Receipt Number
 O/0891659/0000097
 

[TightEnd]

Leighton Baines 2-1 to start next week v San Marino, Corals

Get on


following, an hour ago

Ashley Cole ‏@TheRealAC3

Hahahahaa, well done #fa I lied did I, #BUNCHOFTWATS

[TightEnd]

Leighton Baines 2-1 to start next week v San Marino, Corals

Get on


following, an hour ago

Ashley Cole ‏@TheRealAC3

Hahahahaa, well done #fa I lied did I, #BUNCHOFTWATS

now 5/4 grrr

http://sports.coral.co.uk/sport/en#/?key=site_search.do_site_search&query_string=leighton%2520baines

[tikay]

Leighton Baines 2-1 to start next week v San Marino, Corals

Get on


following, an hour ago

Ashley Cole ‏@TheRealAC3

Hahahahaa, well done #fa I lied did I, #BUNCHOFTWATS

now 5/4 grrr

http://sports.coral.co.uk/sport/en#/?key=site_search.do_site_search&query_string=leighton%2520baines

Ww got it.

We have £40 @ 5/4 with Corals, Leighton Baines to start v San Marino.

ON


Leigton Baines Special - Leighton Baines Special 
Leighton Baines to start against San Marino @ 5/4 
 
Stake: £40.00 (£40.00 x 1 line) 
Estimated Returns: £ 90.00 

[tikay]

Feel better about that WI bet now - they won the toss and are batting first.

[Doobs]

Feel better about that WI bet now - they won the toss and are batting first.

Camel shouldn't be irritated by you taking a price that is good value that happens to hedge the risk from a previous position.  In this case it was a price that looked good in a 100% book that beat Betfair.  It just happened to hedge a previous bet too.  ie the hedging was just the icing on the cake and not the cake itself.

It is the random closing of positions because the price has moved in our favour that should irritate him.  Though I do hesitate because the range of things that irritate camel is way wider than I have implied here.

[horseplayer]

if the bet was taking because the bet on its own was good value then thats fine imo

wont start the whole hedging debate again been done to death

[The Camel]

Feel better about that WI bet now - they won the toss and are batting first.

Camel shouldn't be irritated by you taking a price that is good value that happens to hedge the risk from a previous position.  In this case it was a price that looked good in a 100% book that beat Betfair.  It just happened to hedge a previous bet too.  ie the hedging was just the icing on the cake and not the cake itself.

It is the random closing of positions because the price has moved in our favour that should irritate him.  Though I do hesitate because the range of things that irritate camel is way wider than I have implied here.

This.

I don't mind greening out at all, but only if it's for one of two reasons:

1. You get a position purely because you think the price will shorten, not because you think it's a value bet.

2. You have a bet and now think it's gone too short. (Although in this case you really should be laying the selection for heavier than you've backed it - although psychological reasons might stop you doing this)


Greening out just to take a profit is terrible punting and pissing equity against the wall.

[doubleup]

Feel better about that WI bet now - they won the toss and are batting first.

Camel shouldn't be irritated by you taking a price that is good value that happens to hedge the risk from a previous position.  In this case it was a price that looked good in a 100% book that beat Betfair.  It just happened to hedge a previous bet too.  ie the hedging was just the icing on the cake and not the cake itself.

It is the random closing of positions because the price has moved in our favour that should irritate him.  Though I do hesitate because the range of things that irritate camel is way wider than I have implied here.

This.

I don't mind greening out at all, but only if it's for one of two reasons:

1. You get a position purely because you think the price will shorten, not because you think it's a value bet.

2. You have a bet and now think it's gone too short. (Although in this case you really should be laying the selection for heavier than you've backed it - although psychological reasons might stop you doing this)


Greening out just to take a profit is terrible punting and pissing equity against the wall.

I have discovered recently that you can give up a bit to close a position as you pay much less commission in comparison to letting the bet run.  The effect is particularly marked on movements on short prices like  2 > 1.8

[The Camel]

Feel better about that WI bet now - they won the toss and are batting first.

Camel shouldn't be irritated by you taking a price that is good value that happens to hedge the risk from a previous position.  In this case it was a price that looked good in a 100% book that beat Betfair.  It just happened to hedge a previous bet too.  ie the hedging was just the icing on the cake and not the cake itself.

It is the random closing of positions because the price has moved in our favour that should irritate him.  Though I do hesitate because the range of things that irritate camel is way wider than I have implied here.

This.

I don't mind greening out at all, but only if it's for one of two reasons:

1. You get a position purely because you think the price will shorten, not because you think it's a value bet.

2. You have a bet and now think it's gone too short. (Although in this case you really should be laying the selection for heavier than you've backed it - although psychological reasons might stop you doing this)


Greening out just to take a profit is terrible punting and pissing equity against the wall.

I have discovered recently that you can give up a bit to close a position as you pay much less commission in comparison to letting the bet run.  The effect is particularly marked on movements on short prices like  2 > 1.8

Surely if you let the bets run you'll be paying less commish in a jiffy?

[doubleup]

Imagine that you back £100 at 2 thinking that the price will move, but it doesn't.  If you decide to green up you lose nothing and pay no commission, if you decide to let the bet run you will pay commission when it wins. So the smaller the price difference the greater the difference in commission paid between letting it run and greening.

eg on a movement of 2 >1.8 £100 bet would pay £.56 commission on greening and £2.78 letting it run

[The Camel]

Imagine that you back £100 at 2 thinking that the price will move, but it doesn't.  If you decide to green up you lose nothing and pay no commission, if you decide to let the bet run you will pay commission when it wins. So the smaller the price difference the greater the difference in commission paid between letting it run and greening.

That's fin if you are having the bet purely because you think the price will move, not because you think it's a good bet at evens.