Tips for Tikay

[Bad Beat]

 I am going to risk the wrath of Tighty and spam (light spam). I can't post again now as I'm off out to do "The Punter". It's a show on Sports Tonight Live that about 2000 people watch. I think you guys would like it.

 Sometimes when they can't get guests they ask me if I know anyone who would come on. I would love to get Dubai on.

 You can get it on the internet via their site or YouTube and also if you have a Freeview box.

 I was talking to Tikay about this thread the other day and I said I was worried that it would end up being a bet in every Premiership game because ev eryone always has a view on every one and somebody new will always post one. That would seem to be a good way to do a grand.

 That lead me to thinking of starting an interesting post or two about whether the Premiership can be beaten by people looking at 1s xs GF and GA, recent form, past form and trends, in a world where the Bloom/Benham operations are a little bit ahead of that.

 Maybe later...

[Bad Beat]

 As for the darts morons. Eay thing about betting disagreements is you bet money to settle it.

 Get them to escrow - they won't, end of discussion.

 They depressed me way more than they should of though.

 Tipping a 1/2500 winner must be fun.

[horseplayer]

the show is a good watch neil, try and catch it when i can.

[Graham C]

I am going to risk the wrath of Tighty and spam (light spam). I can't post again now as I'm off out to do "The Punter". It's a show on Sports Tonight Live that about 2000 people watch. I think you guys would like it.

Is the channel on Sky out of interest?

[Bad Beat]

 Only freeview, not Sky. It's pretty low-rent but we have fun and I'm attempting to bring up more advanced punting concepts.

 It's hard to tell how it goes down. They are suprised and sort of joke about the fact that in most live games I say the prices are about right and there isn't a bet.

[Simon Galloway]

Neil,
Surely walking round dozens of betting shops is a massive -EV move for you and therefore should irritate you more than someone that bets 4 times a year and takes a small ew punt on a long shot in a bad race?

You are always exceptionally busy, walking round betting shops is a criminal waste of your time surely?  It may be the best way to get on, but surely paying someone you trust a modest hourly to do it for you (allowing you to earn a much larger hourly while they are doing it) would be a much better play?

[The Camel]

If Bloom and Benham make, say 5% ROI, betting against their selections if the line has moved by over 10% after they've placed their action could be a viable strategy in Premiership/Championship?

[vegaslover]

Another thing with betfair is that they don't reduce the places paid if you get a non-runner. Can find lots of place value when an 8 runner race only has 6 or 7 horses in.

Tikay, please delete the troll posts. This thread has been awesome being discussion based and pretty much troll free. As lildave would say, the trolling is bad for morale

[SuuPRlim]

As lildave would say, the trolling is bad for morale

So bad for morale.

Things that are GOOD for morale are winning bets and cakes. So get rid of the darts pros' throw a few cakes in Teackae and you're threads a winner!

I'll keep my opinions of most pro-punters to myself lol but i'm not at ALL surpirsed by the behavior of the Darts guys. Just completely stnd imo to wanna ridicule people wherever possible, you wont find many of them with ebough heart to put a monkey ew on a 2500-1 shot

[The Camel]

Neil,
Surely walking round dozens of betting shops is a massive -EV move for you and therefore should irritate you more than someone that bets 4 times a year and takes a small ew punt on a long shot in a bad race?

You are always exceptionally busy, walking round betting shops is a criminal waste of your time surely?  It may be the best way to get on, but surely paying someone you trust a modest hourly to do it for you (allowing you to earn a much larger hourly while they are doing it) would be a much better play?

You'll need to send Neil your CV if you are applying for a psition in BadBeat Inc.

[Simon Galloway]

Don't think I would have set it up as a "modest hourly" if I fancied doing it...

[bobby1]

Newcastle 3.45
Draw 3.65
Liverpool 2.28

 

I'm On!

I can't resist backing newcastle when there is a HINT of value. If the price moves out i'll be getting more on as well

TOON TOON!

No doubt some dullards from another betting forum will come along and call me a mug but i'd rather be a mug-punter than a soul-less, grumpy lil nit

Love this thread btw, If I ever get a tip worth posting i'll jump in and contribute, but alas I am a mug lol

Hi Dave

Its highly likely we will be told you cant bet against a price move  

Good luck Us & everybody else on

Hi Fraser,

I think I might have been a little unclear in something I wrote earlier in the thread as someone sent me a PM to question it and your post above just reminder me off it.

In the discussion about good/bad bets even if they win or lose we were talking about betting things at prices that ended up being shorter than the market on the off being a 'bad bet' win or lose. Taking something that is bigger is a good bet win or lose.

Backing something that has drifted is not a bad thing at all, it's the pattern of prices that makes the bet good or bad. Taking the Newcastle game today, if you take 2/1 and the bet goes off at 23/10 ish it is a bad bet win or lose because you have taken well under the price you could have had, by taking 23/10 ish now you have taken a good bet win or lose as that is bang at the top end of the price Newcastle should be ( i Know they touched bigger earlier today but now the teams are known 100% I am happy to take slightly less)

I think the best way to look at it is like this. If you take 2/1 and it wins but goes off 23/10, it is a good selection, but a bad bet ( coz the price was much bigger after you bet it)

If you take the 12/5 that was there earlier today because you really think that is too big and it wins then it is a good selection and a good bet because you have taken what will now be the best price. If it loses it is still a good bet because you have taken bang top price about something that you think should be shorter, and was shorter on kick off. That's why the price has to be the judge.

It isn't that taking a price on a team that drifts is bad, it's taking a price that is the top end of the scale that makes it a good or bad bet irrespective of the result. The easiest way to judge that is to use the prices on kick off as that will be a line that has been knocked into shape given the weight of money and the teams selected.

I have backed Newcastle solely because of the price it has drifted to after having it as a no bet game, I am happy I have done that because I think it is too big, I might be wrong but betting things that lose because you think the price is too big is how you end up also backing winners at prices that you think are too big. The trick is to make it pay in the long run and that's why making sure you are getting as near to the best prices is a good way to judge each individual bet.

[FUN4FRASER]

Hi Phil...hope you are well

Aware of what you are saying and of course if a selection drifts and drifts there normally has to be a point where you back it purely on value grounds & you know 100% my comments were not in reference to anything you said .

GL us with Newcastle

Boom 1-0   20 mins  good start

[bobby1]

Hi Phil...hope you are well

Aware of what you are saying and of course if a selection drifts and drifts there normally has to be a point where you back it purely on value grounds & you know 100% my comments were not in reference to anything you said .

GL us with Newcastle

yes deffo, it just reminded me of the PM and that I had been meaning to reply, you jigged my memory.

[tikay]

Fraser - I have been offline all morning, only just got back, so I missed your Newcy bet, I'm afraid.

Hope & you everyone else on it get a result though.

Onwards & upwards.