Tips for Tikay

[TL900]

Carmelo playing horrifically gona cost us this game it looks like

[TL900]

Amazing how slow Coral are to move their line. Maybe they know better than we do though.

They definitely don't. It is very careless/uninformed and will cost them alot of money long term when I am finished with them

[redarmi]

Agree they are clueless.  Disagree it will cost them a lot of money as they will only let you win a grand or two before cutting you to nothing.

[Tal]

Thoughts on an India series bet, hector(/anyone)?

England have a habit of reversing whatever happened in the test series when on tour. I know there have been a few personnel changes but this is a much stronger India team over 50 covers than the England outfit. A couple down and it could be tough for Gilo (King of Spain) in his first job in charge.

4-0 (allowing for a weather interruption (or a tie?)) is 20-1 on betfair.

Is it a market worth considering? Or is this one always heavily over round?

I don't think it is anything to do with overround, it just looks like someone has put £3 up hoping somebody will take it.

Do we know what happens when a match is abandoned?  Is there a reasonable chance they just run it next day?  And do we know the minimum overs for a result?

I am pretty suspicious that none of the bookmakers are offering 4-0, so unless shown otherwise I will assume there is a fair chance the £3 is there to catch a mug.

I have given up on googling this.

"There to catch a mug"

Marv.

Does it mean I'm doing better if I haven't taken it?

I'm not sure I can remember the last time an ODI was abandoned and played the next day. The schedules are so busy these days I thought that died out a while back.

Anyways, just something I saw while perusing the market.

[tikay]

I can't see £10 being the correct bet on pujura @10/1 if 9/2 is also a bet, there will be a mathematical way of working out but it is probably a maximum. Ladbrokes just laid me £50, so i doubt anything that size would get referral/a price change.

Well we don't know for certain that he will even play, so at present, we've had a fun tenner & we'll leave it at that.

[tikay]

I have a dilemma Mr T. Ladbrokes have priced up Pujara at 10-1 for India's top series batsman. I have been researching all the Indian cricket sites and the consensus is Pujara will play which makes the 10-1 a huge price. How do you feel about another £10 on him. Of course if he doesn't make the side then we will feel fairly stupid, but then I am used to that. There is universal condemnation of all of India's batsmen apart from Pujara and Rahane but then they don't select the team. I also found out that they refer to Gautam Gambhir by the moniker 2G.

Thanks H.

That "Top Indian Batter" market is all over the place, but Lads are way ool.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/india-v-england/odi-series/india-england-odis/top-india-batsman

We know that our man is a proper batsman, a Boycott if you like, not necessarily a one-day agricultural hoiker, but as you note, he'll probably be asked to anchor one end, & maybe if he has to open his shoulders & knock it about, he may surprise us. For sure, he will not give his wicket away cheaply.

I think we have two good bets there, with a bizarre price disparity. £20 @ 9/2 with Betfred, & £10 @ 10/1 Ladbrokes. Effectively we have just over 6/1 I suppose.

I reckon we may just get a cracking sweat with them.

We have £10 @ 10/1, Ladbrokes, Pujara Top India Batterer, the India England ODI Series.

ON

07/01/2013 0000233 Single (To win) 1 £10.00  India v England - ODI Series - Top India Series Runscorer Top series batsman  C Pujara  10/1   
 

Ajinkya Rahane will almost certainly take Sehwag's place opening the batting and Kohli, Raina and Yuvraj will bat at 3,4,5 so I think he's only going to get a game if India pick an extra batsman (which hasn't been their strategy in recent ODIs).  If he does start the 1st game though, 10/1 is massive given his recent domestic form

Thanks for that info Mr Gherkin, & welcome to the thread.

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 0815, Tuesday  January 8th                 

PROFIT on Month = £295.60

Unsettled Bets  - £1,051.00


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=18

[tikay]

Daily Report as @ 0820, Tuesday January 8th

We lost £30 yesterday.

One completed bet, one loser, next case.

We began building a little book on the India England ODI Series which begins this Friday. We got a grand price on Pujara - if he plays.

The 49-ers remain 6/1 for Superbowl.

[hector62]

Morning Mr T. In my investigations yesterday into Pujara, and there was a lot of them, I found that on his latest innings he went from 150 to 200 in 17 balls so he can certainly play all the shots when he desires. I like to pride myself on being dispassionate regards betting but with his Test performance and his one day career form ( not T20 ) and the form of the current India batsmen then he should be the first name on the team sheet. Let's hope that the pressure the selectors are under force them to do the right thing and play him to open or bat at 3.

I was moved to have another bet at him at the 10-1 by memories of my first ever visit to a races. Me and 5 friends in an old MK !! Cortina ( we hid the smallest one under a pile of coats to avoid one entrance fee) visited Devon and Exeter racecourse. In the midst of a storm we backed a horse called Storm Vista at 6-1. It missed the start and was 20 lengths behind but came through to win. The SP returned 10-1 and 30 years later it still grates with me and I resent the bookie Henry Oliver.

[tikay]

Morning Mr T. In my investigations yesterday into Pujara, and there was a lot of them, I found that on his latest innings he went from 150 to 200 in 17 balls so he can certainly play all the shots when he desires. I like to pride myself on being dispassionate regards betting but with his Test performance and his one day career form ( not T20 ) and the form of the current India batsmen then he should be the first name on the team sheet. Let's hope that the pressure the selectors are under force them to do the right thing and play him to open or bat at 3.

I was moved to have another bet at him at the 10-1 by memories of my first ever visit to a races. Me and 5 friends in an old MK !! Cortina ( we hid the smallest one under a pile of coats to avoid one entrance fee) visited Devon and Exeter racecourse. In the midst of a storm we backed a horse called Storm Vista at 6-1. It missed the start and was 20 lengths behind but came through to win. The SP returned 10-1 and 30 years later it still grates with me and I resent the bookie Henry Oliver.

Morning h,

I'm sure that if he is selected - & our new friend "gherkin" seems to suggest he might not - he'll be terrific value.

We shall see, the die is cast now.

I'm glad you referred to "Devon & Exeter" Racecourse, it will always be called that in my mind. These days it is named "Exeter Racecourse", whereas the locals refer to it as "Halden" I believe.

Lovely memories of that place in the 50's & 60's summers, when we holidayed in Dawlish Warren. 

Click to see full-size image.

[Bad Beat]

 Think the bookie might have been Joel Oliver (who bets as Dickie Oliver). Really fun guy.

[AndrewT]

With our Pujara bet we're essentially betting that the Indian selectors go against type and actually drop an established player who is playing shit (Gambhir & Sehwag) rather than continuing with them until they collect their pension.

[hector62]

With our Pujara bet we're essentially betting that the Indian selectors go against type and actually drop an established player who is playing shit (Gambhir & Sehwag) rather than continuing with them until they collect their pension.

Sehwag has already been axed.

[Doobs]

With our Pujara bet we're essentially betting that the Indian selectors go against type and actually drop an established player who is playing shit (Gambhir & Sehwag) rather than continuing with them until they collect their pension.

Think he would be roughly 3/1 if he plays.  If he is 50/50 to play, that means we should back at 7/1.  50/50 feels about right from my sofa.  So I think 10/1 is a good price, so we should bet more than a tenner.  If we are assuming the 50/50 chance of playing then the price should be a bit less than , as he can miss one game and still be top series batsman (though his price after arriving in the 2nd game is likely well into double figures).

I think 9/2 is a bad price, but we should forget about that when deciding the amount we bet at 10s.  Suggest we up our new bet to £30 or so.

Saying that we have a good price at 9/2 if he plays the first game is woolly thinking.  Part of the 9/2 effectively includes the possibility he won't play match one.

[horseplayer]

spot on doobs

looks a good speculative price to me