Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Any reason to take on Sprinter Sacre today in the mud?

No

Obv fav should win doing cartwheels.

Having said that it is a great race each way, if you can get on more than pennies.

2 non runners.

Just seen that and deleted my hasty post!

Obv got some on last night, fml fml!

Bugger, I was searching for it, & wondered why I could not find it!

[Tal]

what would you recommend e/w in the Sprinter Sacre?

Probs nothing now, so predictable how 2 get pulled out, gone from great betting race to meh.

If anything i'd bet the fav like doobs, 2/9 bpg which beats betfair seems value, albeit not mucho exciting!

1/6 in places now, chaps...

[tikay]

what would you recommend e/w in the Sprinter Sacre?

Probs nothing now, so predictable how 2 get pulled out, gone from great betting race to meh.

If anything i'd bet the fav like doobs, 2/9 bpg which beats betfair seems value, albeit not mucho exciting!

1/6 in places now, chaps...

...and 2/9 in FIVE spots.

[Nico29]

I def think 2/9 bpg is value.

Was 1/5 last night before the 2 non runners, is 1.21 on betfair-comish.

Just because the price isn't huge doesn't mean it's not value.

Think doobs mentioned £45 and that seems about right, nick a tenner,maybe a little more.

365, pads, vc and coral all are bpg and 2/9.

[edgascoigne]

Triumph Hurdle trial today (1210 C'ham) sees Nicholls' Irish Saint run. He did his whole coy-bullish thing on the Morning Line earlier today, and having rewatched his run at Kempton I'm adamant he's the real deal.

Rather than taking the 5/6-10/11 currently about for him to win today (opened 5/4-11/8 this morning  ), I think the clever play is 14/1 non-runner free-bet with Victor Chandler. That way if he bombs today there's every chance the stake is saved by him not turning up for the Triumph. If he wins today I fancy he'll soon be quoted around the 6/1 mark.

Recommend £10ew Irish Saint to win the Triumph Hurdle at 14/1 with VC (nrfb).

NB. for anyone wishing to lump on the concession is only valid for the first £50 of stake (either £50 win or £25ew)

[tikay]

I def think 2/9 bpg is value.

Was 1/5 last night before the 2 non runners, is 1.21 on betfair-comish.

Just because the price isn't huge doesn't mean it's not value.

Think doobs mentioned £45 and that seems about right, nick a tenner,maybe a little more.

I'm still not sure if Doobs was serious, but we'll get on if he was, though I'm not desperate to bet.

Think it seems to be on the drift though, so maybe some 1/4 will appear soon, though 2/9 BPG is the same thing I suppose.

[Nico29]

I def think 2/9 bpg is value.

Was 1/5 last night before the 2 non runners, is 1.21 on betfair-comish.

Just because the price isn't huge doesn't mean it's not value.

Think doobs mentioned £45 and that seems about right, nick a tenner,maybe a little more.

I'm still not sure if Doobs was serious, but we'll get on if he was, though I'm not desperate to bet.

Think it seems to be on the drift though, so maybe some 1/4 will appear soon, though 2/9 BPG is the same thing I suppose.

Pads also refund all bets on 2 races today so if you do do it, best to do so with them, also more chance it goes 1/5 than 1/4 imo.

Pretty sure he was serious, probs sounded light hearted due to the 'shame' of tipping a 2/9 shot.

But like I say value is value.

[Nico29]

Triumph Hurdle trial today (1210 C'ham) sees Nicholls' Irish Saint run. He did his whole coy-bullish thing on the Morning Line earlier today, and having rewatched his run at Kempton I'm adamant he's the real deal.

Rather than taking the 5/6-10/11 currently about for him to win today (opened 5/4-11/8 this morning  ), I think the clever play is 14/1 non-runner free-bet with Victor Chandler. That way if he bombs today there's every chance the stake is saved by him not turning up for the Triumph. If he wins today I fancy he'll soon be quoted around the 6/1 mark.

Recommend £10ew Irish Saint to win the Triumph Hurdle at 14/1 with VC (nrfb).

NB. for anyone wishing to lump on the concession is only valid for the first £50 of stake (either £50 win or £25ew)

Now the 1210 is a nice ew race!

[Tal]

Help an ice cream out, please: any benefit in these situations where there is a clear second favourite in backing the forecast?

[tikay]

Triumph Hurdle trial today (1210 C'ham) sees Nicholls' Irish Saint run. He did his whole coy-bullish thing on the Morning Line earlier today, and having rewatched his run at Kempton I'm adamant he's the real deal.

Rather than taking the 5/6-10/11 currently about for him to win today (opened 5/4-11/8 this morning  ), I think the clever play is 14/1 non-runner free-bet with Victor Chandler. That way if he bombs today there's every chance the stake is saved by him not turning up for the Triumph. If he wins today I fancy he'll soon be quoted around the 6/1 mark.

Recommend £10ew Irish Saint to win the Triumph Hurdle at 14/1 with VC (nrfb).

NB. for anyone wishing to lump on the concession is only valid for the first £50 of stake (either £50 win or £25ew)

Thanks Ed.

After missing that 7/2 shot yesterday, I'm taking no chances.......

Like the logic, too.

I would add that I've had more attempts at finding the winner of the Triumph than you have had Birthdays, & I've yet to find a winner. Think the first time I tried was in about 1969 - 43 years ago! - & apart from my sabbatical, I've tried every year.

Anyway, we have £10 EW @ 14/1, BetVictor, Irish Saint, NRNB, 2013 Triumph Hurdle.


ON


Cheltenham Ante Post 2013 Triumph Hurdle
Irish Saint (EW)
(Horse Racing Outright)
Odds:  14/1
Stake:  20.00
Possible Return:  195.00

[edgascoigne]

I would add that I've had more attempts at finding the winner of the Triumph than you have had Birthdays, & I've yet to find a winner. Think the first time I tried was in about 1969 - 43 years ago! - & apart from my sabbatical, I've tried every year.

Well you'll have it this year....

I had Countrywide Flame for the Fred Winter @ 33/1 last year. Obv it rocked up for the Triumph (for which I hadn't punted it Antepost and somehow forgot to bet it on the day...) and popped in at 33/1.

Marv.

As an aside on today's race I fancy the second in to shorten up over the next 15-20mins or so before the market reverting to it's current state(ish).

[Nico29]

Help an ice cream out, please: any benefit in these situations where there is a clear second favourite in backing the forecast?

I personally think forecast betting has little if any value* **

Clear second favourites are often good each way bets due to the place part of the bet being decent.

*Bar say in greyhound races when one selection is a dodgepot, then i'll often play the field against it.

** Also just my opinion and something I really am not 100% sure on, be interested to hear others thoughts on forecast bets.

[redarmi]

Help an ice cream out, please: any benefit in these situations where there is a clear second favourite in backing the forecast?

I personally think forecast betting has little if any value* **

Clear second favourites are often good each way bets due to the place part of the bet being decent.

*Bar say in greyhound races when one selection is a dodgepot, then i'll often play the field against it.

** Also just my opinion and something I really am not 100% sure on, be interested to hear others thoughts on forecast bets.

Think there are spots where they are value but realistically these days you have better options.  I used to use them to oppose favourites I didn't like but you can just lay the jolly on BF now.  I also used to use them with tricasts for the bets where there was a big draw advantage but the bookies changed their calculations to take into effect when front three were drawn close to close that down.

[Tal]

Thanks for the responses, chaps.

[Doobs]

I def think 2/9 bpg is value.

Was 1/5 last night before the 2 non runners, is 1.21 on betfair-comish.

Just because the price isn't huge doesn't mean it's not value.

Think doobs mentioned £45 and that seems about right, nick a tenner,maybe a little more.

I'm still not sure if Doobs was serious, but we'll get on if he was, though I'm not desperate to bet.

Think it seems to be on the drift though, so maybe some 1/4 will appear soon, though 2/9 BPG is the same thing I suppose.

Pads also refund all bets on 2 races today so if you do do it, best to do so with them, also more chance it goes 1/5 than 1/4 imo.

Pretty sure he was serious, probs sounded light hearted due to the 'shame' of tipping a 2/9 shot.

But like I say value is value.

This.  You beat Betfair and get best price guaranteed.  Hence must be value.  I have backed it, but I can see why thread doesn't like backin at 2/9.