Tips for Tikay

[Chompy]

When they say 'referring the bet to a trader', what they mean is 'Just gonna put you on hold for a few minutes while we cut the price. I'll be back shortly to inform you that 9/4 is now 7/4.'

[tikay]

When they say 'referring the bet to a trader', what they mean is 'Just gonna put you on hold for a few minutes while we cut the price. I'll be back shortly to inform you that 9/4 is now 7/4.'

They held the price for me, but I decided to go back & see if they would let me have a bit more for myself. Refused.

[TightEnd]

The history of Eastleigh MP voting is interesting

In 92 Tories won by 17,000

As the LibDems grew as an electoral force, that became a 500 vote majority for Huhne in 2005

Huge resources invested by them in 2010, and he grew his share in to a 5000 majority

The point is the Conservatives will throw the kitchen sink at winning this, whereas they didn't in the General.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/constituency/909/eastleigh



Anyway, will be fun to watch, the betting prices are swinging around a lot on this


Apologiesfor the amateur psephology. A Boring hobby of mine

[Tal]

Cameron's speech on relationship with Europe will have put pressure on UKIP because that's the main/only area UKIP has any ground on the centre-right.

I'm not expecting as strong a turnout for UKIP as normal in these situations but a saver just in case makes sense.

[redarmi]

This is  wonderful bet.  I havent read any of the links so not sure if mentioned but the Tories only lost this in the first place because of a scandal and when the Lib Dems won it initially it was on, iirc, one of the biggest swings ever.  This is a Tory seat and I think the Liberals should be odds against to win it back anytime in the next 3 elections nevermind this one alone!!!! 

[DungBeetle]

UKIP must have a huge chance surely?

Absolutely.  Especially if Farage stands.

[david3103]

UKIP must have a huge chance surely?

Absolutely.  Especially if Farage stands.

Really? I'd have thought the opposite. Farage surely gets too much negative press attention if he stands?

[DungBeetle]

Not sure I agree with that.  He's charismatic and a known face.  I think he's pretty popular with Joe Public.

[kinboshi]

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/tobyyoung/100201293/if-nigel-farage-stands-in-chris-huhnes-seat-the-conservatives-should-not-contest-it/

[Doobs]

UKIP must have a huge chance surely?

Absolutely.  Especially if Farage stands.

Really? I'd have thought the opposite. Farage surely gets too much negative press attention if he stands?

Agreed, probably a good thing that you chose a less libellous way of describing the chances of Farage winning than the words I would have used.   Tory bet looks good to me too.

[redarmi]

hmmm UKIP do better in by elections for Westminster but still not sure they have more than a 5% chance here.  I suppose Farage could make a difference but also agree with Tal that Cameron has stolen their thunder somewhat with the (scandalously opportunistic and blatantly electioneering) announcement about a Euro referendum.

[BiloxiDesire]

Cheers for the comments, over the past few months I have tried to spread my knowledge from the top 4 leagues in England top the top flights of other European games (mainly because it's actually a lot easier to watch those games more regularly). I've been mainly following La Liga, Primeira Liga, Ligue Un & (Not-european) Liga MX meaning I get to watch a couple of games a week on Bet365.

Great stuff.

Are you able to keep your head above water in these Leagues & nick a few bob? Not prying, don't want actual numbers, I just find it fascinating how so many folks think outside the box & try to find niche markets, this really is "working hard" to find an angle.

We will have a little dabble on that match shortly.

Just about yes, there's 2 (EPL & Portuguese League) out of the 4 I make the profit on the other two I'm generally a bit below break even but hoping that will even it's self out over time, depending on how many more shock (to me) results there are in the Mexican league.

Oh and Milli, I'll be back in your thread when I've got a bit more disposable income at the minute I'm scrimping and saving just to get any sort of bets on so spinning up from £10 to £50 and I'll be considering banking it, not really in the spirit of the thread!

[redarmi]

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/tobyyoung/100201293/if-nigel-farage-stands-in-chris-huhnes-seat-the-conservatives-should-not-contest-it/

Even by Toby Youngs standard that is a ridiculous article.

[david3103]

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/tobyyoung/100201293/if-nigel-farage-stands-in-chris-huhnes-seat-the-conservatives-should-not-contest-it/

Even by Toby Youngs standard that is a ridiculous article.

It's good to see that satire isn't dead

Just the photo at the top of the article would be enough to turn me into a europhile

[TightEnd]

Just do the maths

Tories polled 21k UKIPT 2k

Lets say Tories lose 25% of their vote to UKIPT? thats Tories 16k, UKIPT 7k

Libs polled 24k, Labour 5k

Libs lose how much to Labour

- nationally very unpopular with their core voter, betrayed by partnering with the Tories
- Huhne's let them down, so add protest vote
- nationally polling at sub 10% everywhere

What do we want to plug in? -33% more? less?

Lets stick in 33%, thats Libs 16k, Lab 13k


So Tories 16k, Lib 16k, Lab 13k, UKIPT 7k


The Tories can't be worse than even money

and that's the bet at 6/4

Now the Tories have shortened all morning...