Tips for Tikay

[rfgqqabc]

Was going to write an essay...

Coventry 33-1 to win trophy? Even though 3-0 in first leg? Value?

Really?

Well 4-0 or better will be 150/1 away? Even if cov are decent favs right? Even if its 100/1 it doesn't seem like 33/1 to win can be fantastic.

[Graham C]

Sky showed the idiot running on the pitch in the game last night and one of the Cov players tried to trip him up.  He didn't quite get him down but slowed him whilst security grabbed him.  Then he got booked for tripping!

[aaron1867]

Was going to write an essay...

Coventry 33-1 to win trophy? Even though 3-0 in first leg? Value?

Really?

Well 4-0 or better will be 150/1 away? Even if cov are decent favs right? Even if its 100/1 it doesn't seem like 33/1 to win can be fantastic.

I don't think it will be anywhere near 150's, but I think my point has been proved 33's is not value whatsoever

[Doobs]

Was going to write an essay...

Coventry 33-1 to win trophy? Even though 3-0 in first leg? Value?

Really?

Well 4-0 or better will be 150/1 away? Even if cov are decent favs right? Even if its 100/1 it doesn't seem like 33/1 to win can be fantastic.

I don't think it will be anywhere near 150's, but I think my point has been proved 33's is not value whatsoever

What a weird exchange.

Coventry currently 25/1 on Betfair and you can lay at 26s for £7 for a risk free arb if we take the 33s in 3 spots. Even if it is only £7 then it must be at least very close to value and the estimate of 150s is clearly wrong, especially if it just refers to the first match.

[Snowball]

Not often a league to concentrate your efforts on, but this side stands out in this league, head and shoulders above the rest, with a guy up front who is easily cross channel material. Odds stood out for me as too big on this occasion and it came off tonight.

Boyce?

[ruholding]

Presumption's an odd thing

Part of the deal for Coventry City fans was if they turned up tonight for the JPT semi they got priority for the Wembley final tickets

31,000 attendance, completely unheard of in the JPT

They lost 3-0

tighty - not to be too picky but tonight was the final of the northern area of the JPT not the semi final (although i agree it is practically the semi).

[rfgqqabc]

Was going to write an essay...

Coventry 33-1 to win trophy? Even though 3-0 in first leg? Value?

Really?

Well 4-0 or better will be 150/1 away? Even if cov are decent favs right? Even if its 100/1 it doesn't seem like 33/1 to win can be fantastic.

I don't think it will be anywhere near 150's, but I think my point has been proved 33's is not value whatsoever

What a weird exchange.

Coventry currently 25/1 on Betfair and you can lay at 26s for £7 for a risk free arb if we take the 33s in 3 spots. Even if it is only £7 then it must be at least very close to value and the estimate of 150s is clearly wrong, especially if it just refers to the first match.

I was mainly splashing about pointing out aaron could use the previous games odds/knowledge and had a total punt @ a 4-0 price for an away team.

edit: blind trying to lead the one eyed? possibly other way around.

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 1530, Wednesday February 6th                             

PROFIT on Month = £225.50

Unsettled Bets  - £825.00





https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=19

[tikay]

Daily Report as @ 1540, Wednesday February 6th

We lost £10 yesterday, just the one bet, a long-shot, which did not get there.

We placed 2 bets on an otherwise generally quiet day.

One was a Chompy Special - a fishy bet on the Grand National Winner, & the other was the rare double of a reds recommend, & betting on the England Football Team.   

Just a reminder that we are with England tonight, £40 @ 9/4. The England price was unmoved by our interests. Game on.

We dallied with an interest in "Next Notts Forest Manager" @ 20/1, the guy is now on offer at 50/1, & the favourite, Billy Davies, is 1/6. I blame the John Smiths, though if Kelly gets the job, make mine a pint please.

[Spudy]

Is there any value in Argentina tonight at 11/10 typically? They have come in a touch since yesterday in some places!

[redsimon]

Daily Report as @ 1540, Wednesday February 6th

We lost £10 yesterday, just the one bet, a long-shot, which did not get there.

We placed 2 bets on an otherwise generally quiet day.

One was a Chompy Special - a fishy bet on the Grand National Winner, & the other was the rare double of a reds recommend, & betting on the England Football Team.   

Just a reminder that we are with England tonight, £40 @ 9/4. The England price was unmoved by our interests. Game on.

We dallied with an interest in "Next Notts Forest Manager" @ 20/1, the guy is now on offer at 50/1, & the favourite, Billy Davies, is 1/6. I blame the John Smiths, though if Kelly gets the job, make mine a pint please.

 

[tikay]

Is there any value in Argentina tonight at 11/10 typically? They have come in a touch since yesterday in some places!

No idea Spudy! Maybe some folks will comment though.

As a general rule, though, we want to be on bets BEFORE the price moves south, rather than after. The Value Train just departed, sorta thing. My Grandad used to say "I missed the wedding, so I'm buggered if I'm going to the funeral".

Glad your bet on the Irish game got home, well done. We are fine with odds-on shots, but again, as a general rule, "home team unbeaten, away team shite" stuff is the fast train to Carey Street, as all that is generally in the price. And we need a 75% strike rate at 1/2 to show any reasonable profit, & 3 out of 4 is not easy.

Keep the suggestions coming, it's all good stuff.

[Spudy]

Yes I am aware, i know more than I let on, but havent got all day to type it out!

[tikay]

Yes I am aware, i know more than I let on, but havent got all day to type it out!

Ha! I thought as much.

Keep the stuff coming.

[tikay]

Was going to write an essay...

Coventry 33-1 to win trophy? Even though 3-0 in first leg? Value?

I was not around this morning Aaron, but I really liked the thought behind that. Not saying it was a good or bad bet, I have no idea, though Doobsy put it in good perspective, but thinking outide the box is a good, thing even if 9 out of 10 get poo-pooed.

Keep them coming.