Tips for Tikay

[The Camel]

This really is a terrible Public Relations exercise for bookmakers.

Hundreds (I'm guessing here) of punters read this thread.

Most are probably small losing punters who aspire to be winners.

The thread is a tiny winner (2% correct?) on recreational stakes.

Fred has never had any "dodgy" bets.

The message firmly sent by bookmakers is if you have any sort of clue or even think about your bets, you aren't welcome with us.

[adnmdv]

If you're a bookmaker though why would you want people to have a clue? The business model is entirely different from those at Pinnacle/Asian bookies and for that business model, cutting off people who might win makes sense.

[The Camel]

If you're a bookmaker though why would you want people to have a clue? The business model is entirely different from those at Pinnacle/Asian bookies and for that business model, cutting off people who might win makes sense.

Let's say 250 follow this thread.

10 might be winners, another 20 break even.

Do the bookies really want the message sent to the 220 losers that if you win, you'll have your account closed or restricted?

Vegas casinos have understood this.

20 years ago they threw out any blackjack players who they thought "might" be card counting.

They realised they were banning many players who were just on a lucky streak, or card counters who just weren't very good at their job.

Now, as long as you don't take the piss, you can card count to your hearts content in most big hotels.

Bookmakers are closing the accounts of too many marginal punters and costing themselves money.

[adnmdv]

You're assuming that those who are losers really take much notice or care! I'd imagine that if you want to gamble, you'll gamble. Might be wrong though.

[AlunB]

You're assuming that those who are losers really take much notice or care! I'd imagine that if you want to gamble, you'll gamble. Might be wrong though.

I was going to say much the same thing. The type of people who would be put off by that are probably not the type of 'gut feeling' punters they want anyway.

[BigAdz]

Not a recommend for Fred, but thought it maybe of interest to one or two.

3.40 at Clonmel- Magnanimity, see the return of a horse that has always looked to have masses of potential, and is considered a National horse by the trainer. It has looked for some time to my eyes to have had a breathing problem, but have been told it is now sorted and its first run back today. Has plenty of ground and distance form, and only try at the course was second(albeit beaten a way) to Sizing Europe

Its often the time to catch them, first time after the wind op, and if it has worked he wont be similar value again for a while. So a bit of a banzai, but at , I fancy worth a tickle

2nd I'm afraid, mucho better performance, but beaten by better horse. But was not the only one on, as backed into 7-2

[The Camel]

You're assuming that those who are losers really take much notice or care! I'd imagine that if you want to gamble, you'll gamble. Might be wrong though.

I was going to say much the same thing. The type of people who would be put off by that are probably not the type of 'gut feeling' punters they want anyway.

I accept there are sickos who don't care about these things.

But I'd like to think the majority of punters at least have some thought process to their bets.

Why is this thread so popular?

When I said "have a clue" I don't mean pro punters.

I mean people who make their betting decisions with a little bit of thought.

[AlunB]

You're assuming that those who are losers really take much notice or care! I'd imagine that if you want to gamble, you'll gamble. Might be wrong though.

I was going to say much the same thing. The type of people who would be put off by that are probably not the type of 'gut feeling' punters they want anyway.

I accept there are sickos who don't care about these things.

But I'd like to think the majority of punters at least have some thought process to their bets.

Why is this thread so popular?

When I said "have a clue" I don't mean pro punters.

I mean people who make their betting decisions with a little bit of thought.

Because people have no idea what to bet on most of the time and are looking for guidance? I know plenty of people who put 'some' thought into their bets, but that's a mile away from the kind of thought you put into yours.

[scotty2hatty]

Little bit of fun tonight my fellow TfT-ers?

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=60284.0

[The Camel]

The whole model is fucked anyway.

Pro punters just get on using other peoples accounts.

There's 2 posters on here I would back their tips blind.

If I was a bookmaker I'd want to lay their bets, so I could adjust my prices to reflect their opinion.

If they are betting in the name of Joe Bloggs, I'm getting the worst of all worlds.

I'm laying their bets, but I don't know what they want to be on.

Stupid.

[DungBeetle]

Interesting

Note the point I made above about the sin bin price at 1/2

True price has to be 1/5 or shorter if those are the ref's stats, tendencies and the Irish style in defence

The MAXIMUM Bet Paddy Power would allow me on ANY of the three "6 Nation Sin-Bin" Markets this weekend is £8.84.

They have never restricted me before, & although my Account there is profitable (for me), I have only had a few small bets with them recently, (mostly Super Bowl Sub-Markets) so it would appear (I hope...) that they are just restricting bet sizes on those Markets.

For £8.84 @ 1/2, not worth Fred betting, I'm afraid.

I will do the "Tie" bet later.

I logged in and clicked max and it came out at £179.36 so they may be restricting you on props

I tested what the MAX would be on the Tie (20/1), they offered me £2.36.

I tested the Outright on Ireland this Sunday, (10/11), & they maxed me at £47.68.

I mostly bet pretty small amounts with them, £20 & £30, I should be fine with those, but this does not appear to be good news.

WE HEAR YOU TIKAY. 

[TightEnd]

The first Ashcroft Eastleigh poll

Con 34%
Lib 31%
Lab 19%
UKIPT 13%



In Corby, the final Aschcroft poll got Con and Lab right, overstated Lib by 8% and understated UKIPT by 8%

Funded by Lord Ashcroft the ex Tory Chairman (v controversial man) as an alternative to MORI, Gallup etc

[tikay]

Brilliant, but I have to deduct 2 marks, no weather forecast, and no bell graph.

[tikay]

Don't forget we are on the Darts tonight - UNDER 30.5 x 180's.

There was one in the very first leg.

[Graham C]

How many in the next 4?