Tips for Tikay

This is where my head was a few weeks back:

A little bit of money has gone on the chess market for next Friday's Candidates Tournament on betfair.

Carlsen still 1.67
Kramnik 6.6 and drifting, seemingly
Aronian 6.8

Radjabov is a comfy fourth favourite at 16/1, but I really have never seen him perform against this sort of field to the level required to win a double round robin of this magnitude.

Almost any price you like the rest (someone has optimistically asked for 290 on Gelfand, if you please)

A week to go. Kramnik price is beginning to draw my attention tbh. One of those 'Not betting because I think he will win, but because I think his price is too good' type of bets. If it touches 6/1, I'll be investing.

If you want 6/1, just back and then change the price to 7.0. That way if he ever goes 7 you will get it.

Didn't you say Carlson looks like he could be value at 1.67 and Kramnik is value at 7. I assume that means that Aronian must be a terrible price at 6.8, so we should be looking to lay?

I think I agree with all of that. My only hesitation is I understand this stuff just enough to do so, rather than to be actively advocating it, if that makes sense.

As I see it, Aronian is a bit of a thorn for an odds compiler. He is World Number 3 (by the very narrowest of margins and has been number 2 for most of the last 12 months) but he is a little erratic against the elite and his daredevil playing style means he can get picked off against his closest rivals. His strength is picking up wins against the rabbits and there aren't many of those in this comp.

But he's the second most talented player in the field and basically the joint second highest rated and you have to set a price to reflect that.

I really don't rate his chances of winning this tournament right now. He has done nothing in the past six months to suggest to me he can play well enough for long enough against this concentration of quality of opposition to win.

Kramnik has CD next to his name and underlined. He's also found some form of late and has got back to number 2. Age isn't a factor, his back trouble (which was a real problem a few years ago) seems to be under control and he's grinding out wins again.

For me, if there were a head to head market on who finishes higher out of Aronian and Kramnik and they were 5/6 the pair, I'd be recommending a bet on Kramnik very strongly.

Two players in the field have the proven ability to grind out wins from seemingly drawn games time after time against the very best players. That is where I think this tournament will be won and I'm sure it is where both Carlsen and Kramnik hope it will be won

Back to your question:

I suppose I am saying laying Aronian is ok but is there any sport in laying 130/20? Do we have more fun with £10 on Kramnik as a saver and £60 on Carlsen?

The more I think about it, the more I think I'm saying all three prices are wrong because of Aronian's position. So either route is taking value.

I feel uncomfortable (massive ice cream alert) laying 6/1 shots and betting sizeably on 5/8 shots.

But then I did today on my sky+ see one Neil Channing offering 20/1 on Sam Razavi correctly guessing a specific card on the river. Maybe we have to get value wherever we can find it. Maybe there's always a mug out there.

Over on Chess Thread, I was asked about picking an outsider:

If I were being pushed to say who could spring a surprise, I would choose Ivanchuk. He is either hot or cold but he is capable of beating the bottom half of the field and holding his own against the top half.

He is by far the best opening theorist and likely as a result the hardest to prepare for.

But he has these moments sometimes in tournaments where, if it isn't going well, he can hit the self destruct button.

Ivanchuk lost five of his 14 games in this comp on time, which is utterly ridiculous for a man who is to opening theory what Rain Man is to simple calculations.

He also beat both Carlsen and Kramnik and I can't remember the last time anyone did that in a tournament.