Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Ok. Well Seabass looks to be the no-brainer as you can back it @ 12/1 and lay it on Betfair @ 11/1 for a dirty arb position.

Wouldn't want to guess how the market will move throughout the day but suggestions were that both likely to go off single figures.

Ahh, I take your point now.

I'll have a look, but perhaps someone could do me some maths for the likely outcomes, how much it is worth investing & for what gain etc.

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

After last weeks horror tip my therapist has advised me to start of slowly as a means of getting back in the saddle. As you know I do like a good stat based bet and have a particular love of points betting in rugby matches. I had noticed something for a while now in Heineken cup matches and not done anything about it, until now. Heineken cup matches are tense, dour affairs, especially at the knock out stages. My default is to go for low points and in the past it ha served me very well. I have noticed in the past that having gone for low points that after the first half my low points was often in bad shape only to see hardly any points in the 2nd half.

Giving thought to this I came up with this reasoning. Few points are scored in these games, and in the first half players are happy to give away penalties as they feel that with so long left in the game 3 points is not too drastic whereas 7 points for the try must be avoided. The longer the game goes on the more vital 3 points becomes ( as long as the game is close) so they stop conceding penalties.

In my limited research, I only looked at last years matches, I found that 3 of the 1/4 finals and both semi finals had most points in the first half. So I am going to avoid the French match, which could be one sided, I am going to suggest we test this theory on the Saracens match.

Saracens v Ulster £20 most points in first half @ 6/5 Paddy Power.

In last years 1/4 finals the total points make ups were 33,37,38,25 so anyone who wants to bet on the points should be looking to go low but maybe not on the Clermont game.

Thanks hector.

Therapist indeed. 84-6, to be fair, was a bit of an eye-opener, anyway, lets get back on the horse, though not "Hectrors Choice" I hope.

Interesting piece of logic there, but a fun bet. We shall see.....

I got Maxed by Paddy Power, but we got a bit on.

We have £15 @ 6/5, Saracens v Ulster, MOST POINTS 1st HALF

ON


Heineken Cup Saracens v Ulster 
06-04-2013 18:30
Highest Scoring Half
First Half @ 6/5
 
Your Bets Win
Single: First Half @ 6/5
1 line at £15.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £15.00
Potential returns: £33.00
No: O/23146337/0000285

 
Total stake: £15.00
Free bets voucher: £0.00
Total Cost: £15.00

 

 

[T_Mar]

Hi Tikay, Thought I'd get involved and suggest a bet in the first race at Aintree.... Based on some things I've learnt from Fred recently, this looks like good EW betting race if you can get on with who are going 1/4 odds

There are also 3 runners at 33/1+ who to my eye don't have much of a chance.. The fav looks fairly solid but has to prove it likes the fast ground, and as NC has pointed out already this week, the trainer may not be in best of form.  

Of the others I like Utopie Des Bordes who ran funny sort of race at chelts, and never really challenged after look like it might at one point.. I think flat track and drop back in trip will suit it, and has won on good ground at Donny (another flat track)

are 9/2 1/4 odds.... I will leave staking up to you if you decide to go ahead

GL for rest of day

[tikay]

Grand National Book, as @ 9am

Seabass, £10 @ 20/1, Chompy

What a Friend, £10 EW @ 50/1, Adzy

McCoys mount to start Favourite, £40 @ 4/1, bobby1.

Seabass to start favourite, £40 @ 11/4, bobby1

Cappa Bleu to start Favourite, £5 @ 12/1, bobby1.



Remarkably thin, really.

I guess with 6 places being paid in several spots, we'll find some Each Way "value" stuff, I imagine Doobs & Dubai are researching as we speak....

[Doobs]

Got a few for the national at betvictor.  

Soll and Harrytheviking are both 40/1 at betvictor and just short of 50/1 on Betfair.  Betfair pays 4 places and has them both at around 10s the place.  We get 6 places at betvictor so true price should be or so.  Suggest 10 e/w each.

Imperial Commander is 16/1 Betfair and 17.5 at betvictor.  Place is 4.5 on Betfair which suggests 3/1 if paying 6 places.  Suggest 20 e/w.  

Chicago Grey is close too.  12/1 at betvictor, 12.5 Betfair, 6 places should be 5/2ish, 3/1 on Betfair.  Suggest 20 e/w

Cheers.

Timing!

[tikay]

Hi Tikay, Thought I'd get involved and suggest a bet in the first race at Aintree.... Based on some things I've learnt from Fred recently, this looks like good EW betting race if you can get on with who are going 1/4 odds

There are also 3 runners at 33/1+ who to my eye don't have much of a chance.. The fav looks fairly solid but has to prove it likes the fast ground, and as NC has pointed out already this week, the trainer may not be in best of form.  

Of the others I like Utopie Des Bordes who ran funny sort of race at chelts, and never really challenged after look like it might at one point.. I think flat track and drop back in trip will suit it, and has won on good ground at Donny (another flat track)

are 9/2 1/4 odds.... I will leave staking up to you if you decide to go ahead

GL for rest of day

Thanks Mr Mar.

The logic is excellent, but it very much relies on quarter odds, & only Stan James go quarter odds at 5/1, & my Account has been closed there. The only other firm going quarter odds are Bet365, but their price is only 9/2, which makes quite a difference I think. If it drifts to 5/1 or better on Bet365, I'll get on though, assuming they don't restrict me, which they mostly do.

I'm actually on Utopie myself today, a racing insider marked my card as to this horse a very long time ago. It was well beaten at Cheltenham in a hot race, & may be better over fences, but she seems a genuine mare & I'm giving her another chance today.

[tikay]

Got a few for the national at betvictor.  

Soll and Harrytheviking are both 40/1 at betvictor and just short of 50/1 on Betfair.  Betfair pays 4 places and has them both at around 10s the place.  We get 6 places at betvictor so true price should be or so.  Suggest 10 e/w each.

Imperial Commander is 16/1 Betfair and 17.5 at betvictor.  Place is 4.5 on Betfair which suggests 3/1 if paying 6 places.  Suggest 20 e/w.  

Chicago Grey is close too.  12/1 at betvictor, 12.5 Betfair, 6 places should be 5/2ish, 3/1 on Betfair.  Suggest 20 e/w

Cheers.

Timing!

Spooky!

Barely 2 minutes after I suggested you'd be along with some of these, there you were......

In before Dubai. No doubt.

Will sort shortly.

[tikay]

Got a few for the national at betvictor.  

Soll and Harrytheviking are both 40/1 at betvictor and just short of 50/1 on Betfair.  Betfair pays 4 places and has them both at around 10s the place.  We get 6 places at betvictor so true price should be or so.  Suggest 10 e/w each.

Imperial Commander is 16/1 Betfair and 17.5 at betvictor.  Place is 4.5 on Betfair which suggests 3/1 if paying 6 places.  Suggest 20 e/w.  

Chicago Grey is close too.  12/1 at betvictor, 12.5 Betfair, 6 places should be 5/2ish, 3/1 on Betfair.  Suggest 20 e/w

Cheers.

Timing!

Thanks Doobs, all done.

Suddenly we have loaded up for the GN.

We have the following, ALL with Bet Victor, and ALL at Quarter Odds First 6.

Harry the Viking, £10 EW @ 40/1

Soll, £10 EW @ 40/1

Imperial Commander, £20 EW @ 16/1

Chicago Grey, £20 EW @ 12/1

ON

Aintree 16:15
HARRY THE VIKING (EW)
(Horse Racing Outright)
Odds:  40/1
Stake:  20.00
Possible Return:  520.00
Aintree 16:15

SOLL (EW)
(Horse Racing Outright)
Odds:  40/1
Stake:  20.00
Possible Return:  520.00


Aintree 16:15
IMPERIAL COMMANDER (EW)
(Horse Racing Outright)
Odds:  16/1
Stake:  40.00
Possible Return:  440.00
Aintree 16:15


CHICAGO GREY (EW)
(Horse Racing Outright)
Odds:  12/1
Stake:  40.00
Possible Return:  340.00

[Jamier-Host]

Ladbrokes 12/1 offer expired, but looks like Hills sticking with it for time being...

[tikay]

Grand National Book, as @ 9.45am


Seabass, £10 @ 20/1, Chompy

What a Friend, £10 EW @ 50/1, Adzy

McCoys mount to start Favourite, £40 @ 4/1, bobby1.

Seabass to start favourite, £40 @ 11/4, bobby1

Cappa Bleu to start Favourite, £5 @ 12/1, bobby1.

Harry the Viking, £10 EW @ 40/1

Soll, £10 EW @ 40/1

Imperial Commander, £20 EW @ 16/1

Chicago Grey, £20 EW @ 12/1

[tikay]

IPL Book.


This is for general info, & to assist rinswun with his regular Updates.

Mumbai Indians Outright, £20 @ 5/1, Tighty

Owais Shah, Top English Batter, £100 @ 7/4, rinswun

Piune, Outright, £8 @ 10/1, maldini

Pune Outright, £12 @ 9/1, maldini

Marlon Samuels, Top Batsman, £10 EW @ 50/1, maldini

[rinswun]

As if by magic...

IPL Day 3 update:

Yesterday was a fairly disappointing day for Fred's bets as tipped Pune put in an abject batting performance against the ridiculously monikored new boys Sunriders Hydrabad. The performance was summed up by our top batsman interest - Marlon Samuels - who used his time in the middle to give the oppo some slip catching practise. On the plus side, Pune left out Luke Wright which was a positive for our top Englishman bet, though he may well get a look in Pune's next game if they look to shake things up.

Today we have two games to look forward to, both with Fred bet connotations. The first game should see Owais Shah get his tournament underway as his Rajasthan Royals take on the Delhi Daredevils. The Royals are the outsiders here but are vastly experienced and I think I'd rather be with them at 13/10 than an under-strength Daredevils at 4/6. The second game sees our headline tip Mumbai Indians take on tournament favourite Chennai. We lost the first game and could very well lose here but I still wouldn't be disheartened. Chennai and Bangalore are two of the strongest teams in the competition and after this the Indians have a run of easier matches. I'd rather start slow and gain momentum than vice versa.

[horseplayer]

bet suggestion

2.25 lingfield £30 win APACHE 15/2 VCBET

a open race were 7 of the field have chances

Apache has moved from adrian o brien to jane chapple hyam on paper you are already thinking this is not a positive.

Well Chapple Hyam has the best a/e strike rate of any trainer in the uk with switchers from other stables (1.53) over a good sample size.

The horse has not run for over 500 days which again is a massive positive for the trainer (much better returns for horses coming from long breaks than the market suggests), the final icing on the cake is the booking of george baker who shows a 1.56 return for the trainer (way ahead of any other rider)

The trainer also has an interesting point on her runners in that when they earn the in running comment "led or close to pace" the a/e rate is almost double than when held up. There looks to be plenty of pace on here so i expect george to sit in 3rd or 4th early from a good draw.

All of the stats suggest the horse will be ready to go today and fully tuned up for this.

Its quite unexposed still as has shown good enough form to go close anyway and has been dropped 2lbs for the long break.

The horse has also been gelded (not reported in form) and having been free on at least 3 starts this can only be a positive thing.

There has already been a little money this money for those who can skybet go 8-1.

[tikay]

As if by magic...

IPL Day 3 update:

Yesterday was a fairly disappointing day for Fred's bets as tipped Pune put in an abject batting performance against the ridiculously monikored new boys Sunriders Hydrabad. The performance was summed up by our top batsman interest - Marlon Samuels - who used his time in the middle to give the oppo some slip catching practise. On the plus side, Pune left out Luke Wright which was a positive for our top Englishman bet, though he may well get a look in Pune's next game if they look to shake things up.

Today we have two games to look forward to, both with Fred bet connotations. The first game should see Owais Shah get his tournament underway as his Rajasthan Royals take on the Delhi Daredevils. The Royals are the outsiders here but are vastly experienced and I think I'd rather be with them at 13/10 than an under-strength Daredevils at 4/6. The second game sees our headline tip Mumbai Indians take on tournament favourite Chennai. We lost the first game and could very well lose here but I still wouldn't be disheartened. Chennai and Bangalore are two of the strongest teams in the competition and after this the Indians have a run of easier matches. I'd rather start slow and gain momentum than vice versa.

Lovely stuff, thank you, & yes, it has not been a grand start, but as you note, maybe better to start slow then speed up. We could even press.

[tikay]

bet suggestion

2.25 lingfield £30 win APACHE 15/2 VCBET

a open race were 7 of the field have chances

Apache has moved from adrian o brien to jane chapple hyam on paper you are already thinking this is not a positive.

Well Chapple Hyam has the best a/e strike rate of any trainer in the uk with switchers from other stables (1.53) over a good sample size.

The horse has not run for over 500 days which again is a massive positive for the trainer (much better returns for horses coming from long breaks than the market suggests), the final icing on the cake is the booking of george baker who shows a 1.56 return for the trainer (way ahead of any other rider)

The trainer also has an interesting point on her runners in that when they earn the in running comment "led or close to pace" the a/e rate is almost double than when held up. There looks to be plenty of pace on here so i expect george to sit in 3rd or 4th early from a good draw.

All of the stats suggest the horse will be ready to go today and fully tuned up for this.

Its quite unexposed still as has shown good enough form to go close anyway and has been dropped 2lbs for the long break.

The horse has also been gelded (not reported in form) and having been free on at least 3 starts this can only be a positive thing.

There has already been a little money this money for those who can skybet go 8-1.

Thanks horsey.

Whilst all eyes are on Aintree, you find us something at Lovely Lingfield!

We have £30 @ 7/1, BetVictor, Apache, 2.25 Lingfield.

ON

Lingfield 14:25
APACHE
(Horse Racing Outright)
Odds:  7/1
Stake:  30.00
Possible Return:  240.00