Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

I play pool on a Wednesday night in a local league. The opposition team had a player who was chatting with his mates about having just come back from Vegas. He told me a familiar but eternally amusing/facepalmable story:

"We were staying at the Venetian for a stag do and on the last but one night, I fancied playing some poker. I had $500 on me and sat down at a table"

"What were the blinds?"

"Er...big blind was ten dollars"

"Right-o. Sorry. Carry on."

"Yeah, anyway, so I'm sat down and they're all doing their nut, cos I'm six and a half grand up in no time. I'm properly off my face as well. Don't know what I'm doing at the best of times but I've had a proper skin full. We've been at it all day! Staggered off the table six and a bit thousand up. Went on the roulette next and had these $100 chips, so I put one on thirty...numbers and one of the other six comes up. Three grand gone straight away!"

"Blinking 'eck!"

"Yeah, I know. Did the rest, my shirt and my pants the next day as well. F**kin' crackin' few days tho"

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £301.69

Outstanding Bets £1558.50

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=24

A profit of £25 yesterday. +£35 on Sixes at the Ageas bowl, which won easily thanks to Ashwell Prince and Michael Carberry and the recommendation of ripple11. -£10 on a losing chess bet with the selection drawing not winning.

Money at stake today on those rarest of beasts, weather related darts bets.  I am trying to resist searching for flags in Dubai on google earth, but I am sure they are currently billowing in a desert scirocco and that James Wade is currently chuntering by the pool at the Dubai Four Seasons.

In the IPL Rajastan won their eliminator and face Mumbai tomorrow in the semi-final

In County Cricket Middlesex gained maximum bowling points but then slumped to 11-2 in reply. Unfortunately Sussex bowled Somerset out for under 70 and look well placed to go to the top of the table.

In Division 2 neither Northants or Hampshire are playing in this round, so the others have their games in hand

Monaco grand Prix free practice is today

Jiyai Shin tees off today in the Bahamas

[TightEnd]

Telescope will be withdrawn from Epsom Derby says trainer Sir Michael Stoute.

[Doobs]

Telescope will be withdrawn from Epsom Derby says trainer Sir Michael Stoute.

Good news for those of us with some antepost e/w on Ocovango.  Wish I'd kept that free bet now, though still no rain at Epsom in a week.

Hills have eventually put prices up on the Irish 1000, where they are joint biggest about Big Break, which was the other potential home for a free bet.  Though it is shortening in some places, and is shorter than Betfair, though the market has only been up for a couple of days.  She was very promising at 2, but wasn't quite ready for our 1000 (though Weld doesn't like to travel his horses so much, which may be as much to do with it).  She is a full sister to Famous Name, who is a very good racehorse, who just falls short of group 1 standard.  The horses she has beat haven't amounted to much, though she did beat them well.  If anybody has a free bet left, I wouldn't put them off.

[Snowball]

Anyone else heard Martinez has resign at Wigan and on his way to Goodison?

[horseplayer]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OsRRHwOHuK4

a live stream on youtube of the ireland v pakistan odi today

[Marky147]

Anyone else heard Martinez has resign at Wigan and on his way to Goodison?

Would have expected the price to move on Betfair if he had, but it's still steady.

[claypole]

Anyone else heard Martinez has resign at Wigan and on his way to Goodison?

Would have expected the price to move on Betfair if he had, but it's still steady.

Marky, our resident next manager market expert euld have had a call

[Marky147]

Anyone else heard Martinez has resign at Wigan and on his way to Goodison?

Would have expected the price to move on Betfair if he had, but it's still steady.

Marky, our resident next manager market expert euld have had a call

Haha, it's in to 2.6 (from 3.5) now...

[T_Mar]

While Mr Channing is about.

Just noticed today that Secret Gesture is available to lay at circa 5/2.

I got on at 25s.

Being mindful of your comments yesterday, I need clarification.

I would never back this horse at 5/2, ie, I no longer think its value. I also can't see another horse that I consider A, the winner , or B, value.

Should I green out, or let it run it's course?

Depends. What made you back it in the first place?

You

Really, if you think it's a terrible priice and a stone bonking lay, you should switch your position so you win £0 if it wins and get the lot if its beat.

Say you've had £10 @ 25/1, now you should lay £100 @ 3.5

Hi Keith,

I don’t really understand this?  Why do we have to switch positions ‘completely’?

Can’t we treat the two bets independently of each other? 

So if Adz thinks this his selection is too short now, and is considering a  lay, he can do so for his normal stake in this situation as a completely separate bet – The fact he has a bet already in this market or this specific selection shouldn’t mean he has to utilise all his equity if he want to lay it now – should it?

Cheers

Tom

[Tal]

This goes back to the heads or tails example I gave the other day, TMar.

If someone offers 2/1 on heads, you bet. If they offer 1/2 on heads, you lay.

If you've bet 100 @2/1 when the bookie switches to 1/2, you don't just close your position; you press and take a second lot of value, capitalising on the second error.

If instead of 1/2, the bookie offered Even money, closing your bet and locking up your profit is fine, as is letting your money ride.

[c4ught]

I presume then that The Camel only recommended moving the position to £0 because that is relating to BigAdz bet?

Should we in theory move our position to lose our max bet to maximise the +ev lay?

[BigAdz]

This goes back to the heads or tails example I gave the other day, TMar.

If someone offers 2/1 on heads, you bet. If they offer 1/2 on heads, you lay.

If you've bet 100 @2/1 when the bookie switches to 1/2, you don't just close your position; you press and take a second lot of value, capitalising on the second error.

If instead of 1/2, the bookie offered Even money, closing your bet and locking up your profit is fine, as is letting your money ride.

This though is not subjective in itself.

We know for sure that heads=ev and tails is ev, so the maths is perfect.

Unless we ran this race an eternal number of times we don't know that 5/2 is the "real" correct price. If that makes any sense whatsoever?!

[TightEnd]

The Coronation Cup next week

St Nicholas Abbey has won the last two, and goes for the treble

4/5 currently

If he makes the start, what possibly beats him?


12 are in the race, and it usually cuts up to 5 or 6 runners

- O'Brien has  Chamonix, El Salvador, Ernest Hemingway and Imperial Monarch.

- Dandino whose main target in 2013 is the Melbourne Cup.

"We are considering the Coronation Cup for Dandino. The owners have told me to leave him in the race and we will just monitor the ground because he is a fast-ground horse," said Botti.

- 2011 Melbourne Cup victor Dunaden, trained in France by Mikel Delzangles, and Very Nice Name, who has been left in by Qatari-based Alban de Mieulle and was last seen when third behind St Nicholas Abbey at Meydan.

The list of possibles is completed by 2012 Derby second Main Sequence, Chapter Seven, Joshua Tree and Sir Graham Wade.

last time out "Aidan O’Brien’s St Nicholas Abbey broke the track record in going one place better than 12 months ago in the Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan."

4/5 putting the £ away on it for a week?

It'll start shorter, won't it?

[Marky147]

365 doing their £50/£50 free bet promo for the Champions League final.