Tips for Tikay

[Snowball]

MVG vs Lewis @ 1.4 on betfair seems nice bet

Suggest £30 MVG win

Without coming across as aftertiming, what was your thinking behind 1.4 was a good price?

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £112.25

Outstanding Bets £1680.60

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&pli=1#gid=27

A profit of nearly £80 yesterday thanks to Andy Murray's Wimbledon win offset by Mercedes poor F1 performance and Castleford failing to overcome St Helens

The Djokovic bet is returned, as per the offer refund if Murray wins

A harem scarem day in the Tour de France seemed to scupper our hopes of Richie Porte on the podium as he was dropped early and slunk home such that he was outside the top 50 on the General classification

Today County Championship cricket resumes

Middlesex and Durham are in action in Div 1 and in Div 2 Northants top play Lancs second in a key game

The Ashes starts on Wednesday. Mr Swann is at home in Nottingham licking his lips for more heatwave and dry pitches.

[Tal]

I forgot Swann used to have longer hair



Did the ECB make a haircut a condition of his central contact?

[tikay]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £112.25

Outstanding Bets £1680.60

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&pli=1#gid=27

A profit of nearly £80 yesterday thanks to Andy Murray's Wimbledon win offset by Mercedes poor F1 performance and Castleford failing to overcome St Helens

The Djokovic bet is returned, as per the offer refund if Murray wins

A harem scarem day in the Tour de France seemed to scupper our hopes of Richie Porte on the podium as he was dropped early and slunk home such that he was outside the top 50 on the General classification

Today County Championship cricket resumes

Middlesex and Durham are in action in Div 1 and in Div 2 Northants top play Lancs second in a key game

The Ashes starts on Wednesday. Mr Swann is at home in Nottingham licking his lips for more heatwave and dry pitches.

On which subject, in approx 5 minutes time, I am scheduled to interview one S Warne, specifically as to The Ashes. I only half expect him to turn up.

Apart from starting with references to Andy Murray & The Lions, are there any pertient questions I should ask? I should add that he has lost a great deal of weight. Maybe taking tablets.

[TightEnd]

 how competitive does he expect the Australians to be?

how important was the coaching change?

one player to watch out for that English fans might not know much about?

Will he be on Sky Sorts from the second test onwards?

Can he introduce you to Liz Hurley?

[Tonji]

A harem scarem day in the Tour de France seemed to scupper our hopes of Richie Porte on the podium as he was dropped early and slunk home such that he was outside the top 50 on the General classification

60th on the stage & now 33rd on GC (I have cycling stats OCD  ), but certainly the bet heading south for winter.

[tikay]

how competitive does he expect the Australians to be?

how important was the coaching change?

one player to watch out for that English fans might not know much about?

Will he be on Sky Sorts from the second test onwards?

Can he introduce you to Liz Hurley?

Boom, job done, though I swerved the Hurley googly.

The interview now has to be compressed, rendered, edited, uploaded, downloaded & everything else loaded, but should be up later. (It is 0100am here, so bed beckons).

[BigAdz]

For Warne.

He currently lives with Liz just outside our town.

I often see him about town. Is he wearing "guyliner"?

[outragous76]

MVG vs Lewis @ 1.4 on betfair seems nice bet

Suggest £30 MVG win

Without coming across as aftertiming, what was your thinking behind 1.4 was a good price?

Only just seen this,

I have said before I don't know how to express nor define value, but by the same token I also rarely place bets, so the bets that I do place tend to be those which mean I am prepared to make the effort to do so etc etc

Safe to say I put this bet on   

[TightEnd]

Best yet tikay, wonderful stuff

[Snowball]

MVG vs Lewis @ 1.4 on betfair seems nice bet

Suggest £30 MVG win

Without coming across as aftertiming, what was your thinking behind 1.4 was a good price?

Only just seen this,

I have said before I don't know how to express nor define value, but by the same token I also rarely place bets, so the bets that I do place tend to be those which mean I am prepared to make the effort to do so etc etc

Safe to say I put this bet on   

I just feel MvG is a good match up for Lewis because of the pace of them game.He beat him 2 weeks ago and also had Darts to knock him out the Worlds.Lewis was excellent yesterday and will be a big Player in Blackpool if he shows the same form.
I feel MvG's condistency has dropped a little and he basically admitted that the Klaasen match was the one he wanted to wim(because of the history between them).

[TightEnd]

A Baseball update

(Singhee been absent a while)

Bets

AL East

Tampa Bay Rays Win 100-30
Boston Red Sox Win 4-1

AL Winner

Tampa Bay Rays Win 12-1

World Series

Kansas City Royals e/w 80-1
Tampa Bay Rays win 20-1


AL East

A hugely tough division, full of big spending teams and talent

Red SoxBoston Red Sox    54    36    .600    --    31-16    23-20    7-3    Lost 2
OriolesBaltimore Orioles    49    40    .551    4.5    25-17    24-23    6-4    Won 1
RaysTampa Bay Rays    49    40    .551    4.5    28-18    21-22    8-2    Won 4
YankeesNew York Yankees    48    40    .545    5    25-19    23-21    6-4    Lost 1
Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays    43    45    .489    10    25-21    18-24    4-6    Won 1

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/mlb/standings/?eref=sinav#ixzz2YSAQumeg

Boston, redarmi's clever saver, are four and a half games clear

The Rays are coming into form, have won 8 out of the last 10

If these teams can't win the division, they will be hoping to get one of two wild card places in the Ameerican league

redarmi is in reasonable shape to have a winner out of the AL East bets

If the Rays can make the play offs, then who knows after that


Kansas City Royals

Central    W    L    Pct    GB    Home    Road    Last 10    Streak
TigersDetroit Tigers    48    39    .552    --    26-16    22-23    6-4    Lost 1
IndiansCleveland Indians    46    42    .523    2.5    25-17    21-25    6-4    Won 1
RoyalsKansas City Royals    41    44    .482    6    22-22    19-22    5-5    Lost 1
TwinsMinnesota Twins    37    48    .435    10    21-23    16-25    2-8    Lost 1
White SoxChicago White Sox    34    51    .400    13    19-20    15-31    2-8    Lost 3

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/mlb/standings/?eref=sinav#ixzz2YSAuhS1D

The Royals are 6 games behind the big spending and talent heavy Tigers. Unlilkey to be in the Wild card race at the moment, they need to hit form and quick

Watched them the other night, and their investment in pitching in the off season is working well. However the defense/pitching has had little or no run support all season and this lack of hitting is preventing them from moving into contention

[TightEnd]

Horses Ante Post

Sean St Leger

The positions are

Libertarian e/w at 8-1, win 6-1
Telescope win at 20-1
Leading Light win at 10-1

Current ante post market

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/flat/st-leger/winner

Leading Light is challenging for favoritism with Galileo Rock
Libertarian and Telescope trading at/slightly under the backed prices at 8-1 and 16-1 respectively


The Arc

positions

Orfevre 6-1 win
Ocovango 25-1 win

Wins by Al Kazeem and Intello at the weekend have taken them to joint favouritism in this early market

Orfevre is 3rd favourite around 6-1

Ocovango generally trading at 16-1


Ruler of the World and Trading Leather are other orses priminent ante-post

[TightEnd]

The Ashes

Trent Bridge - first test on Wednesday

6 of the last 9 Tests have been won by the side batting first and winning the Toss

Overview

Although the pavilion remains within the architectural parameters of its 1889 foundation there has been no shortage of redevelopment recently, starting with the Radcliffe Road Cricket Centre, which was completed in 1998.

Since then the striking Fox Road stand, which includes a modernistic aircraft-wing roof, has been changed, while the West wing and Parr stand on the Bridgford Road side of the ground was replaced in 2008.

The effect of those alterations is that the ground is now completely encircled by buildings tall enough to cut off any breeze, and there has been a noticeable increase in swing - which was already abundant - since that last development.

As a result Trent Bridge has increasingly become a results ground, and the only two draws to have taken place in the last decade were both rain-affected.

Quotes

England fast bowler James Anderson on the swing prospects: ""All the feedback we're getting from the Notts boys is that it's not swung as much this year. The pitch is very flat and very dry, so we don't really know what to expect until we get there and practise."

Nottinghamshire skipper Chris Read: "I think the square has been changing for the last three or four years. A lot of people have put it down to these new outfields - the one at Trent Bridge is fantastic in terms of absorbing the water from rain, but the theory is that it is also sucking moisture out of the square.

"I certainly think that for the majority of our games this year there has been less moisture in the ground and it's therefore been giving less assistance to all the quick bowlers."

Australia batsman Chris Rogers this week: "The sun's out, you expect nice batting conditions when the overheads are good but it still swung so that's how it's played traditionally, I expect that to be the case. It's hard to know what the wicket is going to do, I think it's going to be pretty good to bat on, but swing is going to be a big threat."

He added: "It looked like there were a few cracks in it. I think they're trying to keep some moisture in it definitely. It's been hot here and I think that's going to dictate how the pitch plays.

"If you look at the wickets next to the pitch they are fairly abrasive already, so everyone realises the ball will scuff up a fair bit. Therefore reverse swing comes into it. Spin is going to have to do a huge role to help out the quicks as well."


Weather Forecast

The weather, according to various forecasts, is expected to be warm, slightly humid and dry for the duration of the Test, with only day five, on Sunday, potentially seeing a 25 percent chance of rain. This lack of cloud cover, combined with the reportedly dry deck, will hinder the famous conventional swing but encourage spin and reverse swing.

Conclusion

Win the toss and bat -  first Innings runs for England on spreads if they win the toss

Should be favourable to our Swann bet, all (my bolded) comments above on dry pitches, potential cracks etc means my confidence in the theory behind this bet is increased.

[Marky147]

I backed Telescope in the St. Leger for Tikay with @ 14/1, but can't remember if it was for £25 or £30...