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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16404599 times)
TightEnd
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« Reply #50355 on: August 24, 2013, 02:15:11 PM »

Di Resta traded at 1/66 with 2 mins of Q3 to go, then it stopped raining and the 1/66 was toast

Please, no bets on the race tomorrow beyond the safety car (would be unlucky to lose that) Spa is a lottery in tricky conditions

Best race of the year for the viewer though
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My eyes are open wide
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I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
tikay
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« Reply #50356 on: August 24, 2013, 02:17:36 PM »

You are right Sparrow, those concessions make the difference. A +ev situation.

But Totesport price is now 5/1...,,,,,

Still +ev?
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tikay
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« Reply #50357 on: August 24, 2013, 02:26:56 PM »


Amazing Maria - pillar to post!

Lovely stuff.

The ground really cut up, must be close to "soft".
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« Reply #50358 on: August 24, 2013, 02:27:50 PM »

York 5.00

Nap for me today is old fred selection Spirit Of The Law.  

Quickened up really impressively to win last time and is still only running off 83 here with the excellent claimer's 5lb off.  Looks on a very fair mark still, a left-handed, galloping track is exactly what he wants and has lots of form on soft ground.  These are out of form or racing in not ideal conditions apart from Sennockian Star and I'm not sure that wants soft or at testing 10f.  Think 5/1 is very fair and will be hard to beat given he is still improving.

Suggest £30 win at 5/1 or bigger
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« Reply #50359 on: August 24, 2013, 02:29:45 PM »

You are right Sparrow, those concessions make the difference. A +ev situation.

But Totesport price is now 5/1...,,,,,

Still +ev?

i'd pass at 5/1, when recommended it was top price of all bookies and close to betfair price and that was the main reason for me thinking with the added value of 1/4 odds + money back offer it was decent.
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tikay
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« Reply #50360 on: August 24, 2013, 02:32:02 PM »

York 5.00

Nap for me today is old fred selection Spirit Of The Law.  

Quickened up really impressively to win last time and is still only running off 83 here with the excellent claimer's 5lb off.  Looks on a very fair mark still, a left-handed, galloping track is exactly what he wants and has lots of form on soft ground.  These are out of form or racing in not ideal conditions apart from Sennockian Star and I'm not sure that wants soft or at testing 10f.  Think 5/1 is very fair and will be hard to beat given he is still improving.

Suggest £30 win at 5/1 or bigger

Thanks horsey.

We are on, and we beat 5/1.

£30 @ 11/2, Sporting Bet, Spirit of the Law, 5pm York.

Details later.

ON
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« Reply #50361 on: August 24, 2013, 02:34:00 PM »

You are right Sparrow, those concessions make the difference. A +ev situation.

But Totesport price is now 5/1...,,,,,

Still +ev?

i'd pass at 5/1, when recommended it was top price of all bookies and close to betfair price and that was the main reason for me thinking with the added value of 1/4 odds + money back offer it was decent.

Thought as much. Regrettably swerved.

Apologies for missing it, but an awkward weekend for me, time issues, non-blonde stuff.
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« Reply #50362 on: August 24, 2013, 02:37:07 PM »

You are right Sparrow, those concessions make the difference. A +ev situation.

But Totesport price is now 5/1...,,,,,

Still +ev?

i'd pass at 5/1, when recommended it was top price of all bookies and close to betfair price and that was the main reason for me thinking with the added value of 1/4 odds + money back offer it was decent.

Thought as much. Regrettably swerved.

Apologies for missing it, but an awkward weekend for me, time issues, non-blonde stuff.

11/2 now.......
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« Reply #50363 on: August 24, 2013, 02:38:58 PM »

You are right Sparrow, those concessions make the difference. A +ev situation.

But Totesport price is now 5/1...,,,,,

Still +ev?

i'd pass at 5/1, when recommended it was top price of all bookies and close to betfair price and that was the main reason for me thinking with the added value of 1/4 odds + money back offer it was decent.

Thought as much. Regrettably swerved.

Apologies for missing it, but an awkward weekend for me, time issues, non-blonde stuff.

11/2 now.......

6.8 betfair. With badbeat saying it was +ev with those concessions and previously 11/2 he was indifferent, maybe go for it.  But i'm lacking confidence in pushing it for fred.
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« Reply #50364 on: August 24, 2013, 02:39:14 PM »

Have had £25 ew Mister Impatience @ 11/2 with the Totesport Offer for myself (off-thread).

If confirmed BEFORE the race, and the price is not less than 11/2, I can transfer that bet to Fred.
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« Reply #50365 on: August 24, 2013, 02:40:36 PM »

Bugger, less dither, more do. Just seen the Mr Sparrow post.

We are ON Mister Impatience as above. £25 EW @ 11/2, Totesport Offer.

ON
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« Reply #50366 on: August 24, 2013, 02:40:56 PM »

Di Resta traded at 1/66 with 2 mins of Q3 to go, then it stopped raining and the 1/66 was toast

Please, no bets on the race tomorrow beyond the safety car (would be unlucky to lose that) Spa is a lottery in tricky conditions

Best race of the year for the viewer though

I don't think this can really hold.  People label the Grand National a lottery, but it isn't.  We could have put a line through the Ebor because of the bad conditions, but we didn't.  

If somebody is a great price we should take it, we just need to take into account the conditions when we bet.  I haven't got anything in mind yet, so you might be OK.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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« Reply #50367 on: August 24, 2013, 02:41:51 PM »

Have had £25 ew Mister Impatience @ 11/2 with the Totesport Offer for myself (off-thread).

If confirmed BEFORE the race, and the price is not less than 11/2, I can transfer that bet to Fred.

happy to second this

looks between the top two to me have backed it small at 6-1
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« Reply #50368 on: August 24, 2013, 02:42:10 PM »

Bugger, less dither, more do. Just seen the Mr Sparrow post.

We are ON Mister Impatience as above. £25 EW @ 11/2, Totesport Offer.

ON

That name is so apt Cheesy
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
tikay
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« Reply #50369 on: August 24, 2013, 02:43:54 PM »

Bugger, less dither, more do. Just seen the Mr Sparrow post.

We are ON Mister Impatience as above. £25 EW @ 11/2, Totesport Offer.

ON

That name is so apt Cheesy

There ought to be a Mr Dither and a Mr Spider.
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