Tips for Tikay

[The Camel]

If the Betfair price is within a few ticks of the price taken, we don't need to look at results, these bets are massively +ev (some more massive than others obv)

Let's not be results orientated.

That would be going back to ice cream punting.

[VDogg]

If the Betfair price is within a few ticks of the price taken, we don't need to look at results, these bets are massively +ev (some more massive than others obv)

Let's not be results orientated.

That would be going back to ice cream punting.

confirmed cornetto

[JaffaCake]

Andros Townsend anytime @ 3/1? Kid is walking on air atm, debut run out as well against poor full backs.

Sometimes it helps if people refer to their players and team as we, then u can understand where they come up with such tosh. Next Tal will be recommending some old striker who walks round with his hands in his pockets first goal against Arsenal coz he once played for Spurs

Gonna have no one left to sit next to at this rate Mr Kimber.x

Tal's the only one who can take a bit of ribbing round here. You'd have flounced out and accused all the cool kids of ganging up on u by now...shouldn't u be recommending bets on Jack Wilshere FGS at 2/1 about now?

Cough

Some people deserve it!

[tikay]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=26

i started the free bets tab at the end of June

Since then we have had 22 free bets

Winner 1

Money Back 1

Lose 14

To Run 4

To Place 2

This is quite a small sample size, of mostly free bets when horses have finished second and the free bet goes on at 8-1+ prices. You only need a couple of winners from these to balance the numbers up

An earlier free bet that won was Swann Ashes wickets for £132 for example


One thing that is occasionally a struggle is the time limit on the free bets, often 7 days, and finding something suitable

so according to that table we have bet £525 with a return of £77.50 with only 2 free bets left.
i assume the swann bet was prior ?

You need to include the returns of the initial bets which earned the Free Bets. .

[VDogg]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=26

i started the free bets tab at the end of June

Since then we have had 22 free bets

Winner 1

Money Back 1

Lose 14

To Run 4

To Place 2

This is quite a small sample size, of mostly free bets when horses have finished second and the free bet goes on at 8-1+ prices. You only need a couple of winners from these to balance the numbers up

An earlier free bet that won was Swann Ashes wickets for £132 for example


One thing that is occasionally a struggle is the time limit on the free bets, often 7 days, and finding something suitable

so according to that table we have bet £525 with a return of £77.50 with only 2 free bets left.
i assume the swann bet was prior ?

You need to include the returns of the initial bets which earned the Free Bets. .

ah ok.
obv on the face of it they don't look like a good idea,but i bow to the maths wizz that is Doobs.
bit beyond me tbh.
im trying though
thats what my mother used to say

[tikay]

If the Betfair price is within a few ticks of the price taken, we don't need to look at results, these bets are massively +ev (some more massive than others obv)

Let's not be results orientated.

That would be going back to ice cream punting.

I shall take that as confirmation that I am no longer an ice-cream.

Mr A J Kendall, Retired Ice Cream

[VDogg]

If the Betfair price is within a few ticks of the price taken, we don't need to look at results, these bets are massively +ev (some more massive than others obv)

Let's not be results orientated.

That would be going back to ice cream punting.

I shall take that as confirmation that I am no longer an ice-cream.

Mr A J Kendall, Retired Ice Cream

Here to take over the helm of the good ship Magnum

[tikay]

Hills, Ladbrokes doing the same again at Haydock.  I know we had a bad day yesterday, but we shouldn't let that stop us.

In the circumstances the 4.05 is apt.

4.05 £25 win Intansigent 9/4 Hills or Laddies.
3.35 Venue 6/5 Hills
3.00 Rogue Wave 6/4 Hills
2.00 Snow Sky 4/6 Hills

Thanks Doobs. No, yesterday makes no difference to the long-term viability of these. I'll action them shortly.

If you plan to do them Fri/Sat/Sun, it would be really helpful if you could Post them as early as possible.

Might give it a break, sure Tighty doesn't need complex spreadsheet updating on top of the rest.  Have a succesful weekend.

Other people follow them as well as Fred, though.

[VDogg]

Hills, Ladbrokes doing the same again at Haydock.  I know we had a bad day yesterday, but we shouldn't let that stop us.

In the circumstances the 4.05 is apt.

4.05 £25 win Intansigent 9/4 Hills or Laddies.
3.35 Venue 6/5 Hills
3.00 Rogue Wave 6/4 Hills
2.00 Snow Sky 4/6 Hills

Forgive me as i do not fully understand.

Do we take into account the times the favourites don't come 1st or 2nd and we lose £25 ?
Yes
Also what are the free bets used for ? any bet or horses only. Obviously there is no guarantee the free bet will win any money.
Anything, and obviously there are no guarantees.  You are going to get some long losing runs backing 8/1 chances
Has it been worked out if this system actually make money?
Well there aren't any guarantees, sods law often come into play on TfT

I did do some maths back in the day  http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=61477.msg1794039#msg1794039.
 

So in a way this is like betting with training wheels.
little risk
minor reward
with an outside chance of a score?

[JaffaCake]

If the Betfair price is within a few ticks of the price taken, we don't need to look at results, these bets are massively +ev (some more massive than others obv)

Let's not be results orientated.

That would be going back to ice cream punting.

I shall take that as confirmation that I am no longer an ice-cream.

Mr A J Kendall, Retired Ice Cream

Old ice creams don't retire, they melt

[Doobs]

Just watching the Haydock race, thinking just leave that one behind. 

Then realising we needed 4 runners, shove it in, shove it in.

[Doobs]

Just watching the Haydock race, thinking just leave that one behind. 

Then realising we needed 4 runners, shove it in, shove it in.

2nd, but that extra runner made us the free bet

[malt vinegar]

If the Betfair price is within a few ticks of the price taken, we don't need to look at results, these bets are massively +ev (some more massive than others obv)

Let's not be results orientated.

That would be going back to ice cream punting.

I shall take that as confirmation that I am no longer an ice-cream.

Mr A J Kendall, Retired Ice Cream

Here to take over the helm of the good ship Magnum

even though we know its a great offer proven by doobs, elders and spiders etc

no harm in looking at the results as a whole so far to see how fred is doing with it as it stands as it does take up a large part of the action lately and how the free bets part is going

its not a criticism of fred , being results orientated or a stick to bash up doobs calculator just interesting i think

[VDogg]

If the Betfair price is within a few ticks of the price taken, we don't need to look at results, these bets are massively +ev (some more massive than others obv)

Let's not be results orientated.

That would be going back to ice cream punting.

I shall take that as confirmation that I am no longer an ice-cream.

Mr A J Kendall, Retired Ice Cream

Here to take over the helm of the good ship Magnum

even though we know its a great offer proven by doobs, elders and spiders etc

no harm in looking at the results as a whole so far to see how fred is doing with it as it stands as it does take up a large part of the action lately and how the free bets part is going

its not a criticism of fred , being results orientated or a stick to bash up doobs calculator just interesting i think

Agreed
interesting reading it would make.
ooo went all Yoda then

[The Camel]

If the Betfair price is within a few ticks of the price taken, we don't need to look at results, these bets are massively +ev (some more massive than others obv)

Let's not be results orientated.

That would be going back to ice cream punting.

I shall take that as confirmation that I am no longer an ice-cream.

Mr A J Kendall, Retired Ice Cream

Here to take over the helm of the good ship Magnum

even though we know its a great offer proven by doobs, elders and spiders etc

no harm in looking at the results as a whole so far to see how fred is doing with it as it stands as it does take up a large part of the action lately and how the free bets part is going

its not a criticism of fred , being results orientated or a stick to bash up doobs calculator just interesting i think

TBH AS i stated on about 275 of this thread I'm not a fan of including specials and offers in the overall figures.

We should do them whenever or whenever they offered obv, because it's like finding money in the street.

However, they as they aren't available to everyone, they will skew the figures favourably for fred.