Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

I have done a trawl on the BMW championship golf and as suspected it isn't ever going to throw up much when there are only 5 places.

It gave me 3 names, including one price that had already gone.

Brandt Snedeker is 50/1 with SportingBet, Stans and Bwin and the same on Betfair.  Suggest £10 each way.

The other is Brandon De Jonge who is 150/1 in a few places and 170/1 +on Betfair.  He feels a bit speculative so probably worth ducking, though I have flung a fiver each way on him never to be seen again.

Jordan Spieth is best priced 30/1 now, so think we did OK there.

I am not going to bother with the KLM in Europe, as it is time consuming and only Stan James are doing 6 places.

Thanks Doobs.


BUMPED to remind me to sort later this afternoon.

[Doobs]

Aaron its because of the free bet if 2nd offer and blanket betting the favourites

Yeah I know that, but we don't ideally want a free bet & we still have missed a significantly bigger price, we can't back every somewhat shortie every morning because of the free bet offer, especially when we have missed the price.

It is 13/8 right now on Betfair, best price 6/4 with the bookies.  So we have Betfair price plus a free bet if 2nd.  That is simply clear value.  

Not betting now and refusing a 20% return because somebody else has got a 30% one just makes no sense whatsoever.

[aaron1867]

Aaron its because of the free bet if 2nd offer and blanket betting the favourites

Yeah I know that, but we don't ideally want a free bet & we still have missed a significantly bigger price, we can't back every somewhat shortie every morning because of the free bet offer, especially when we have missed the price.

It is 13/8 right now on Betfair, best price 6/4 with the bookies.  So we have Betfair price plus a free bet if 2nd.  That is simply clear value.  

Not betting now and refusing a 20% return because somebody else has got a 30% one just makes no sense whatsoever.

So it's ok that we have got on at 13/8 but has been both 7/4 & even 2/1?

[doubleup]

Thoughts on this bet suggestion:

£10 ew Luke Donald top GB&I @ 11/2 Corals/Boyles/Lads (3 places)

Although Lukes form has been a bit meh, there are a couple of things that make him worth looking at

The course is quite short by PGA standards which is advantageous to him;

but more importantly, he lives in the area and is a member of a course that doesn't regularly feature on the tour

He's a bit short for an outright bet, but the top GB&I seems reasonable with good ew terms.

[Doobs]

Aaron its because of the free bet if 2nd offer and blanket betting the favourites

Yeah I know that, but we don't ideally want a free bet & we still have missed a significantly bigger price, we can't back every somewhat shortie every morning because of the free bet offer, especially when we have missed the price.

It is 13/8 right now on Betfair, best price 6/4 with the bookies.  So we have Betfair price plus a free bet if 2nd.  That is simply clear value.  

Not betting now and refusing a 20% return because somebody else has got a 30% one just makes no sense whatsoever.

So it's ok that we have got on at 13/8 but has been both 7/4 & even 2/1?

You can just lay the horse off on Betfair and get a free bet if it is 2nd.  That simply can't be a bad state of affairs for us.  The past prices just show somebody got better.  Well done them.

FWIW Jazz was definitely a much worse bet.  

[edgascoigne]

Aaron its because of the free bet if 2nd offer and blanket betting the favourites

Yeah I know that, but we don't ideally want a free bet & we still have missed a significantly bigger price, we can't back every somewhat shortie every morning because of the free bet offer, especially when we have missed the price.

It is 13/8 right now on Betfair, best price 6/4 with the bookies.  So we have Betfair price plus a free bet if 2nd.  That is simply clear value.  

Not betting now and refusing a 20% return because somebody else has got a 30% one just makes no sense whatsoever.

So it's ok that we have got on at 13/8 but has been both 7/4 & even 2/1?

If a bertie big bollox was offering you 5/4 on a coin toss and 6/4 to people with ginger hair as a special concession you still take the 5/4?

[Chompy]

Padraig Power's 6/1 about Louie being next evicted from CBB worth snapping up for anyone that can get a worthwhile amount on. Be an easy trade tomo imo.

Best now 5/1 or 9/2. Still a bet?

Would still be betting it at 4/1 but I maxed it yday. Courtney would be a lay at anything under Evs IMO.

Back on outright winner. Abz now a clear favourite at 6/4 which in turn enables us some 4/1 on Charlotte (in one spot - Freds). Yes the last two days she's not done herself any favours - especially last night at the end bitching about Lauren - however I really can't see this putting too many people off her as she's provided us with so much entertainment throughout this series. She'll have a massive following from her usual fans of Geordie shore (CBB would attract the same kinds of viewers IMO) as well as votes which her antics will have picked her up along the way. Think she should be a bet / top up if your already on at 4/1.

I chucked 30 quid on Louie to be out before I went to bed this morning, but forgot to ask at what price Chompy recommends laying at.

I'm on Charlotte @ 8/1, so happy to just ride that one out and see what happens.

Either lay back most of your stake at 4.5 for a freebie, or have a nifty on Courtney @ 6/5 with Buttermeup is what I'd do. Probably favour the latter but I was really just highlighting the 6/1 coz it was too big.

Bristol City v Peterboro at Ashton Gate on Saturday.  Had this game down as a pick em game but see that Posh are chalked up as 11/8 favs.

Bristol City have started slowly but it is way too early to be writing them off for the season as odds of 2/1 suggest on the home team.

I think Bristol City will win this game more than 1 times out of 3 at home and as such this is a spot of value.  Thoughts?

They are 12/5 with a bookies called "Winner" but assuming we don't have an account I think the 9/4 with Paddy Power is a very fair price on the home side.

Yikes! Can't condone this sort of behaviour at all. Poshies have a better squad than Brizzle and have made the brighter start. Also, Brizzle can't defend and we score for fun. Also, the two losses against them cost us our Champo place last season - they caught us at the perfect time twice - and I'm sure Fergie will be reminding the players of this. Also, Sam Baldock is a dick who nearly joined us before his bad attitude put Fergie off.

[TightEnd]

Some finish that and we won at 5/2 Lightning Thunder.

[Doobs]

Thoughts on this bet suggestion:

£10 ew Luke Donald top GB&I @ 11/2 Corals/Boyles/Lads (3 places)

Although Lukes form has been a bit meh, there are a couple of things that make him worth looking at

The course is quite short by PGA standards which is advantageous to him;

but more importantly, he lives in the area and is a member of a course that doesn't regularly feature on the tour

He's a bit short for an outright bet, but the top GB&I seems reasonable with good ew terms.

I want to back this.

But the prices for top GB and Ireland prices seem consistent with the overall.  McIlroy and Rose are shortest in both, Westwood and Donald are the same price in both etc.  In the top 5 market on Betfair, Westwood is shorter than Donald.  I wish one of the bookies was offering bigger than 40/1.  Maybe just bet the top 5 on Betfair as an alternative?

Edit I just backed the top 5 in the overall on Betfair after a brief think.  Cheers

[Marky147]

Either lay back most of your stake at 4.5 for a freebie, or have a nifty on Courtney @ 6/5 with Buttermeup is what I'd do. Probably favour the latter but I was really just highlighting the 6/1 coz it was too big.

Sounds good, I'll try for a score at 3/1 and see if we can scooooooop.

[Doobs]

Some finish that and we won at 5/2 Lightning Thunder.

Never in doubt

[doubleup]

Thoughts on this bet suggestion:

£10 ew Luke Donald top GB&I @ 11/2 Corals/Boyles/Lads (3 places)

Although Lukes form has been a bit meh, there are a couple of things that make him worth looking at

The course is quite short by PGA standards which is advantageous to him;

but more importantly, he lives in the area and is a member of a course that doesn't regularly feature on the tour

He's a bit short for an outright bet, but the top GB&I seems reasonable with good ew terms.

I want to back this.

But the prices for top GB and Ireland prices seem consistent with the overall.  McIlroy and Rose are shortest in both, Westwood and Donald are the same price in both etc.  In the top 5 market on Betfair, Westwood is shorter than Donald.  I wish one of the bookies was offering bigger than 40/1.  Maybe just bet the top 5 on Betfair as an alternative?

Edit I just backed the top 5 in the overall on Betfair after a brief think.  Cheers

Baldfred just gone 50s outright.....

think £5ew on the outright @50s with tote baldfred would be a recommend from me

[Chompy]

£25 Posh to score 3.5+ v Brizzle City, 12-1 Coral. Best be quick here...

[tikay]

Some finish that and we won at 5/2 Lightning Thunder.

Great news!

[Doobs]

Thoughts on this bet suggestion:

£10 ew Luke Donald top GB&I @ 11/2 Corals/Boyles/Lads (3 places)

Although Lukes form has been a bit meh, there are a couple of things that make him worth looking at

The course is quite short by PGA standards which is advantageous to him;

but more importantly, he lives in the area and is a member of a course that doesn't regularly feature on the tour

He's a bit short for an outright bet, but the top GB&I seems reasonable with good ew terms.

I want to back this.

But the prices for top GB and Ireland prices seem consistent with the overall.  McIlroy and Rose are shortest in both, Westwood and Donald are the same price in both etc.  In the top 5 market on Betfair, Westwood is shorter than Donald.  I wish one of the bookies was offering bigger than 40/1.  Maybe just bet the top 5 on Betfair as an alternative?

Edit I just backed the top 5 in the overall on Betfair after a brief think.  Cheers

Baldfred just gone 50s outright.....

think £5ew on the outright @50s with tote baldfred would be a recommend from me

Looks good to me, on this as well.  Go on Tikay