Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Macedonia are dull as dishwater and very very limited

They are however organised i have said before on here i have little time for Coleman as a manager and was amazed he got the job

The welsh performance in there last game was of a non league standard defensive wise.

Calling up Bale even though he is injured is the latest line of strange things Coleman has done in my opinion

I think Macedonia were bigger when betting opened? (might be wrong)

I find it hard to back them away at nearly 2/1 tbh because of how limited they are but Wales are heading only one way

That WAS a very odd thing to do. I heard him justify it (or try to) on the wireless, but his logic whooshed me completely.

[JaffaCake]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £150.30

Outstanding Bets £3051.66

Free Bets TWO to use with William Hill by 13th October

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=30

A loss of £7. Fantasy Gladiator did not oblige for -£33, offset by Mr Finnan's 180s for a fiver and Janet Yelland being normnated to the Fed Chair by Obama for +£21

Today we have action in the India v Australia cricket, Bears v Giants NFL and the World Grand Prix Darts where Lewis, Taylor and money back saver MVG are all still going strong

I feel a bit bereft without a baseball update to do.

 

A £4.45 winner and an £8.84 winner....Lord Tiddlearse would be proud!

[Doobs]

Macedonia are dull as dishwater and very very limited

They are however organised i have said before on here i have little time for Coleman as a manager and was amazed he got the job

The welsh performance in there last game was of a non league standard defensive wise.

Calling up Bale even though he is injured is the latest line of strange things Coleman has done in my opinion

I think Macedonia were bigger when betting opened? (might be wrong)

I find it hard to back them away at nearly 2/1 tbh because of how limited they are but Wales are heading only one way

Wales 52 in the rankings and falling, Macedonia 75 and rising, so I'd say 5/2 doesn't look huge playing away on rankings.  I think 6/4 would be astonishing.  But like everyone else, am uninspired by Coleman so it is probably a bit of value.  I wouldn't get carried away.

[Jamier-Host]

The Anytime Scorer market is back for the internationals

Would suggest a couple of trebles involving Michu/Negredo + Aguero + Neymar  (there was some reluctance on the weekend so let's say £20 each @ 10/1)

For those looking to be a bit more adventurous you could back the 4-fold above (25/1) and potentially chuck in Ibrahimovic as well for a 60/1 shot.

[horseplayer]

just a quick note Argentina widely expected to pick a very weakened side against Peru

would not be certain Aguero will start

[TightEnd]

from a learned source who reads the thread daily, and whose friend who is a thread elder declined to post a 1/20 as a max for reputational purposes, but I have no shame.....

"- the Specials spreadsheets at bookies are not built for 27point favourites in NFL games

Coral Online have 1/20 that Denver/Jags go to overtime. Could be 1/1000 in reality. Easiest 5% return you'll see.

bwin have 2/13 Denver H T-FT, this is a 1/20 shot based off H T spreads of Denver -17

Denver -31 Paddy Power were 12/5 but moved their ricks overnight

Denver -43 is 8/1 at Bet365 "Huge price"

the thread should have 75% of its roll on the short priced specials for this game "


He also says 1st half to have most points is 5/6 general, the thinking being that

a) 1st half points spread is Denver -17, second half -9.5 so by extenson the first half is expected to have more points

b) if the Broncos are well ahead into the second half Manning will be rested and his understudy, Brock Osweiler put in


Enjoy.

[Snowball]

Scotland outplayed them away last month, they were very poor and only showed glimpses for about 10 minutes in the second half.
Looks like a game to avoid.

[Jamier-Host]

just a quick note Argentina widely expected to pick a very weakened side against Peru

would not be certain Aguero will start

Ok thanks. Interestingly I had 2 x winners and non runner in a combo bet on the weekend and they paid it out @ 4/1 which would make this much less of a worry.  The terms state that with non starters doubles are paid @ 15/8 and singles @ 4/6 though - so pretty horrible if they stick to those rules.

(they also have Palacio in the list btw)

[horseplayer]

just a quick note Argentina widely expected to pick a very weakened side against Peru

would not be certain Aguero will start

Ok thanks. Interestingly I had 2 x winners and non runner in a combo bet on the weekend and they paid it out @ 4/1 which would make this much less of a worry.  The terms state that with non starters doubles are paid @ 15/8 and singles @ 4/6 though - so pretty horrible if they stick to those rules.

(they also have Palacio in the list btw)

Yes Palacio is tempting always looks a good club player but 1 in 14 int games is poor

[Jamier-Host]

As an aside the differences in prices for those anytime markets is ridiculous.

e.g Negredo v Belarus ranges from 1/5 (WTF?!) with Hills to 8/11 elsewhere.

[BigAdz]

from a learned source who reads the thread daily, and whose friend who is a thread elder declined to post a 1/20 as a max for reputational purposes, but I have no shame.....

"- the Specials spreadsheets at bookies are not built for 27point favourites in NFL games

Coral Online have 1/20 that Denver/Jags go to overtime. Could be 1/1000 in reality. Easiest 5% return you'll see.

bwin have 2/13 Denver H T-FT, this is a 1/20 shot based off H T spreads of Denver -17

Denver -31 Paddy Power were 12/5 but moved their ricks overnight

Denver -43 is 8/1 at Bet365 "Huge price"

the thread should have 75% of its roll on the short priced specials for this game "


He also says 1st half to have most points is 5/6 general, the thinking being that

a) 1st half points spread is Denver -17, second half -9.5 so by extenson the first half is expected to have more points

b) if the Broncos are well ahead into the second half Manning will be rested and his understudy, Brock Osweiler put in


Enjoy.

Like all these but worry a touch about the last one. If enough points scored for Manning to come off, will Brock not be pushing hard to make any form of impact in his limited time, and if Jags are getting battered will the heads not dip etc. Not so obvious a value bet to me, but will probably cruise in now I have commented!

[Tal]

Evening, Fred. Just logged on [insert whinge about how many thousands of pages get added here every day] and caught up.

Brock Osweiler. There's a name you only see in American sports. Bet he's still better than Chad Henne.

Anyone got anything they can tell me about the Bills QB situation this weekend? Manuel is out. Tuel is...not a starting QB. I understand the Bills want a replacement in on a short term basis who knows which colour shirt jersey to aim for. Who might they get and what effect would they have on prices? This seems to my ice cream eyes as a possible spot to beat the bookies if we know what we are looking for (and I currently don't!)

[Snowball]

Lewis OUT
Never turned up and let Pipes slow play effect his game, thats him 8-5 down in hth against him tho he did beat him in the semis on Saturday, not that its good for us.

[Tal]

Evening, Fred. Just logged on [insert whinge about how many thousands of pages get added here every day] and caught up.

Brock Osweiler. There's a name you only see in American sports. Bet he's still better than Chad Henne.

Anyone got anything they can tell me about the Bills QB situation this weekend? Manuel is out. Tuel is...not a starting QB. I understand the Bills want a replacement in on a short term basis who knows which colour shirt jersey to aim for. Who might they get and what effect would they have on prices? This seems to my ice cream eyes as a possible spot to beat the bookies if we know what we are looking for (and I currently don't!)

Google is my fwend

Thad Lewis has been added to the Bills roster and it seems he might be the man to start.

Click to see full-size image.

Lewis was undrafted out of Duke in 2010 after setting school records for passing yards (10,065) and touchdown passes (67). He has been with the Rams, Browns and Lions, and his lone NFL action came in the final game of 2012 for Cleveland. He started against Pittsburgh in a 24-10 loss and completed 22 of 32 passes for 204 yards with a TD and an interception.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/bills/2013/10/07/thaddeus-lewis-starting-quarterback-week-6-cincinnati-bengals/2935323/

[redarmi]

from a learned source who reads the thread daily, and whose friend who is a thread elder declined to post a 1/20 as a max for reputational purposes, but I have no shame.....

"- the Specials spreadsheets at bookies are not built for 27point favourites in NFL games

Coral Online have 1/20 that Denver/Jags go to overtime. Could be 1/1000 in reality. Easiest 5% return you'll see.

bwin have 2/13 Denver H T-FT, this is a 1/20 shot based off H T spreads of Denver -17

Denver -31 Paddy Power were 12/5 but moved their ricks overnight

Denver -43 is 8/1 at Bet365 "Huge price"

the thread should have 75% of its roll on the short priced specials for this game "


He also says 1st half to have most points is 5/6 general, the thinking being that

a) 1st half points spread is Denver -17, second half -9.5 so by extenson the first half is expected to have more points

b) if the Broncos are well ahead into the second half Manning will be rested and his understudy, Brock Osweiler put in


Enjoy.

LOL - yes he is very bullish on all of this.  I think 75% if roll is  a bit too bullish though. In turn.  The 1/20 shot is just a ridiculous price.  It should be 1/500 or something.  -FT is value I'm just not sure it should be 1/20 anymore but if they win the first half there is very little chance they lose the game and they are very short to win the game.  Agree the alternative handicaps are wrong but I don't particularly love them but they do serve as an okay hedge against the bets which hope manning gets pulled.  With the first half to score more it is neutral EV at worst for sure and I like it I think.  Does anyone know if any firm bets on the lowest scoring quarter?