Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Reports suggest Gumede might have sciatica on top of the disc issue. That's not going away. Fred may have missed the boat on laying off and, if she is forced to pull out or is significantly impaired, Fred has got very unlucky. There aren't many withdrawals in SCD, perhaps surprisingly. Still was a super find, Jaffa.

Abbey Clancey might now go favourite (I haven't checked the odds this morning), as I suspect a slightly cooler performance last week might have taken some of the sting out of the betting on Sophie Ellis-Bextor.

There are still value bets elsewhere IMO. I say IMO as I've backed a few middle-to-outsiders over the last couple of weeks. FWIW, they are Abbey, Ben, Susanna and Fiona. Varying degrees but I've changed from my long-established practice of adjusting bet sizing depending on return (I get the message if you shout loudly enough), but would show a profit if any of them won (especially Fiona ). She is definitely the least likely of the four to win but any of them could win if they make the final, because they will have demonstrated both talent and popularity. Abbey and Ben have big target markets for votes. There are some good dancers in the comp but I think it is more open than recent years.

I thought we had bet that Ben would be the first elimination?

Ignore Tal, Nat on twitter saying she is dancing with Artem again today.  

Edit.  Have smashed Betfair obviously.

Behave! I wasn't proposing any action at all. There's nothing to ignore.

I'm delighted if she's fit and dancing. Some of us consider this show entertainment

[Doobs]

Reports suggest Gumede might have sciatica on top of the disc issue. That's not going away. Fred may have missed the boat on laying off and, if she is forced to pull out or is significantly impaired, Fred has got very unlucky. There aren't many withdrawals in SCD, perhaps surprisingly. Still was a super find, Jaffa.

Abbey Clancey might now go favourite (I haven't checked the odds this morning), as I suspect a slightly cooler performance last week might have taken some of the sting out of the betting on Sophie Ellis-Bextor.

There are still value bets elsewhere IMO. I say IMO as I've backed a few middle-to-outsiders over the last couple of weeks. FWIW, they are Abbey, Ben, Susanna and Fiona. Varying degrees but I've changed from my long-established practice of adjusting bet sizing depending on return (I get the message if you shout loudly enough), but would show a profit if any of them won (especially Fiona ). She is definitely the least likely of the four to win but any of them could win if they make the final, because they will have demonstrated both talent and popularity. Abbey and Ben have big target markets for votes. There are some good dancers in the comp but I think it is more open than recent years.

I thought we had bet that Ben would be the first elimination?

Ignore Tal, Nat on twitter saying she is dancing with Artem again today.  

Edit.  Have smashed Betfair obviously.

Let me get this right.

You follow these SCD people on Twitter?

You don't think I watch it?  I don't do twitter, but Tal just timed that brilliantly, as I checked at the perfect time.

[Tal]

It was perfectly timed. I checked Twitter about 40 minutes ago. Nothing for two days.

Then, five minutes later, three messages, explaining "Well that was a scary 72 hours! An epidural, steroid and nerve block injections and some lovely painkillers later..." but she's having a training session today, with a view to getting the all clear to dance tomorrow. Hopefully she does get that.

I carped the diem too hastily, evidently. That's why doobs is rich

[Doobs]

I wasn't getting at you Tal, I read your first post and thought well 3/1 isn't such a bad lay price, so had a quick check on google, and then just checked her twitter. 

I think getting the info on the thread quickly was important, as I didn't want people reading your post and laying at 3/1 as I almost did.  Though thinking about it better, it would have been great for me if they did.

[tikay]

I still have a few bets to confirm from last night, I'll do so shortly after I've sorted some other stuff, so that Tighty can do the Spready & Report.

I think they were mostly combinations of 1,2,3,4 or 5 players being dismissed in that Confeence game last night, as suggested by Chompy.

I was busy last night, how many Red Cards were there eventually?

Bet Thread all updated now. 

[tikay]

Saracens v Toulouse Heineken Cup Fri @ Wembley Stadium

French teams set the standard in European rugby these days: no salary cap in operation, a lucrative TV deal and they are awash with money, to cause a perpetual talent drain away from the UK and Ireland, and Southern Hemisphere into French domestic rugby

Saracens though are one of the English teams that can compete with the French. Saracens are amongst the most, ahem, creative of clubs within the English salary cap which allows them a big squad, full of stars, and typically a big influx from South Africa

Saracens play Toulouse in the Heineken Cup on Friday night (Sky Sports 1, 7.45pm).

The match is one of two games that Saracens will play at Wembley Stadium this season and they are 8/15 favourites for this Pool 3 clash.

Last weekend's opening round of games in the Heineken Cup saw Saracens secure a hard fought 23-17 winaway at Connacht and Toulouse  demolished Zebre 38-5, which saw them run in four tries for a bonus point.

Saracens have started the new season in electric fashion as they have won all six of their matches in all competitions, which is a run that has been good enough to see them sit five points clear at the top of the Aviva Premiership table. In domestic rugby, their skill with the salary cap gives them a real advantage, and it shows more than ever this season. Even when off-form Owen Farrell is one of the best kickers around and will keep them in contention in most games this season

They are so strong physically and they will be confident of over-powering a Toulouse side that don't quite boast the same creative flair of other top French sides like Toulon and Clermont. Saracens are 10/11 -4 point handicap and I think they will cover this

Toulouse, missed out on a place in the quarter-finals of this competition by just one point last season. They started this new season in woeful fashion but they have improved of late to move up to third in their domestic league. The French side have won four of their last five matches in all competitions but they have been absolutely abysmal on their travels, having lost all four of their away games in the Top-14 and going to Wembley and winning is a big ask.

Recommendation

£55 Saracens to cover a -4 point handicap @ 10/11 with a number of firms

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/heineken-cup/saracens-v-toulouse/handicaps

Stan James in a valiant attempt to win ice cream rugby punter market share go Evens across both sides of Rugby handicaps at the moment, if you can get on

Why is this game being held at Wembley Stadium? The RFU own Twickers, surely?

[Tal]

I wasn't getting at you Tal, I read your first post and thought well 3/1 isn't such a bad lay price, so had a quick check on google, and then just checked her twitter. 

I think getting the info on the thread quickly was important, as I didn't want people reading your post and laying at 3/1 as I almost did.  Though thinking about it better, it would have been great for me if they did.

No offence taken, of course. Just a bugger that I was a few minutes early.

Nice to see you enjoying yourself, doobs

[BigAdz]

Reports suggest Gumede might have sciatica on top of the disc issue. That's not going away. Fred may have missed the boat on laying off and, if she is forced to pull out or is significantly impaired, Fred has got very unlucky. There aren't many withdrawals in SCD, perhaps surprisingly. Still was a super find, Jaffa.

Abbey Clancey might now go favourite (I haven't checked the odds this morning), as I suspect a slightly cooler performance last week might have taken some of the sting out of the betting on Sophie Ellis-Bextor.

There are still value bets elsewhere IMO. I say IMO as I've backed a few middle-to-outsiders over the last couple of weeks. FWIW, they are Abbey, Ben, Susanna and Fiona. Varying degrees but I've changed from my long-established practice of adjusting bet sizing depending on return (I get the message if you shout loudly enough), but would show a profit if any of them won (especially Fiona ). She is definitely the least likely of the four to win but any of them could win if they make the final, because they will have demonstrated both talent and popularity. Abbey and Ben have big target markets for votes. There are some good dancers in the comp but I think it is more open than recent years.

Ah....another Sun reader!

[horseplayer]

Apologies for last night

If i had found out the same ref had given 4 reds in 8 games this season the bet would have looked even better than it did

I can only presume based on last night the 4 reds given were for attempted murder

[Tal]

Reports suggest Gumede might have sciatica on top of the disc issue. That's not going away. Fred may have missed the boat on laying off and, if she is forced to pull out or is significantly impaired, Fred has got very unlucky. There aren't many withdrawals in SCD, perhaps surprisingly. Still was a super find, Jaffa.

Abbey Clancey might now go favourite (I haven't checked the odds this morning), as I suspect a slightly cooler performance last week might have taken some of the sting out of the betting on Sophie Ellis-Bextor.

There are still value bets elsewhere IMO. I say IMO as I've backed a few middle-to-outsiders over the last couple of weeks. FWIW, they are Abbey, Ben, Susanna and Fiona. Varying degrees but I've changed from my long-established practice of adjusting bet sizing depending on return (I get the message if you shout loudly enough), but would show a profit if any of them won (especially Fiona ). She is definitely the least likely of the four to win but any of them could win if they make the final, because they will have demonstrated both talent and popularity. Abbey and Ben have big target markets for votes. There are some good dancers in the comp but I think it is more open than recent years.

Ah....another Sun reader!

Not today sir. Go on. What else have I missed?

[tikay]

Apologies for last night

If i had found out the same ref had given 4 reds in 8 games this season the bet would have looked even better than it did

I can only presume based on last night the 4 reds given were for attempted murder

No worries John.

If the stats were correct, & there really had been 64% Red Card rate, we had cracking value on all 7 bets. *

* May be a slight exaggaration.

[TightEnd]

Saracens v Toulouse Heineken Cup Fri @ Wembley Stadium

French teams set the standard in European rugby these days: no salary cap in operation, a lucrative TV deal and they are awash with money, to cause a perpetual talent drain away from the UK and Ireland, and Southern Hemisphere into French domestic rugby

Saracens though are one of the English teams that can compete with the French. Saracens are amongst the most, ahem, creative of clubs within the English salary cap which allows them a big squad, full of stars, and typically a big influx from South Africa

Saracens play Toulouse in the Heineken Cup on Friday night (Sky Sports 1, 7.45pm).

The match is one of two games that Saracens will play at Wembley Stadium this season and they are 8/15 favourites for this Pool 3 clash.

Last weekend's opening round of games in the Heineken Cup saw Saracens secure a hard fought 23-17 winaway at Connacht and Toulouse  demolished Zebre 38-5, which saw them run in four tries for a bonus point.

Saracens have started the new season in electric fashion as they have won all six of their matches in all competitions, which is a run that has been good enough to see them sit five points clear at the top of the Aviva Premiership table. In domestic rugby, their skill with the salary cap gives them a real advantage, and it shows more than ever this season. Even when off-form Owen Farrell is one of the best kickers around and will keep them in contention in most games this season

They are so strong physically and they will be confident of over-powering a Toulouse side that don't quite boast the same creative flair of other top French sides like Toulon and Clermont. Saracens are 10/11 -4 point handicap and I think they will cover this

Toulouse, missed out on a place in the quarter-finals of this competition by just one point last season. They started this new season in woeful fashion but they have improved of late to move up to third in their domestic league. The French side have won four of their last five matches in all competitions but they have been absolutely abysmal on their travels, having lost all four of their away games in the Top-14 and going to Wembley and winning is a big ask.

Recommendation

£55 Saracens to cover a -4 point handicap @ 10/11 with a number of firms

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/heineken-cup/saracens-v-toulouse/handicaps

Stan James in a valiant attempt to win ice cream rugby punter market share go Evens across both sides of Rugby handicaps at the moment, if you can get on

Why is this game being held at Wembley Stadium? The RFU own Twickers, surely?

"We are a North London club with a 134-year history of playing rugby in this part of the city and Wembley fits into this very well and it makes sense to use the stadium for big matches.

"No one believes Wembley is a stadium fit for only 10 football matches a year and it should be used for all kinds of events. We are proud to be given the chance to use it for four games this season and we look forward to playing their in the future.

"We don't have a long-term agreement in writing after this season but we intend to roll that into next season and there will be on-going discussions with Wembley once we know the games.

"We have almost certainly already qualified through our league position for the Heineken Cup which offers the opportunity for major matches against teams like Munster, Leinster and
Toulouse."

Saracens are keen to build on the crowds of 40,000 they attracted to Wembley for the wins over South Africa, Northampton and Worcester.


I think tonight is the 10th time they have played at Wembley. Obviously btween club and potential venue, not an RFU inspired decision

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £13.69

Outstanding Bets £3018.66

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=30

A loss of £40.42 yesterday. As we have heard, the referee in the Macclesfield-Southport game was a quiet sort and the game passed off without incident. Worse than the loss, in the interests of sweating the bet I had to endure Mark Clemmit and Helen Skelton for two hours, who combined to make me hanker for the halcyon days of Elton Welsby and Jim Rosenthal.

So, the forward book is back over £3,000 again. Some of that comes to fruition or disappointment this weekend with Saracens tonight, Mukhadram and Morandi tomorrow, Tampa Bay on Sunday and all the usual progress from (and yes I have counted them) upwards of 40 poisitions ue to see action this weekend

Some of it stretches to June next year, when England march to World Cup glory after we've forgotten to lay the 33-1 off 

[tikay]

Thanks Rich.


"....I think tonight is the 10th time they have played at Wembley. Obviously between club and potential venue, not an RFU inspired decision....."


The RFU must be well hacked off with them. They have a cracking Stadium, self-funding I assume, barely 10 miles down the road from Wembley. Twickers regulars alone would add 10,000 to the gate, I'd have thought.

[tikay]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £13.69

Outstanding Bets £3018.66

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=30

A loss of £40.42 yesterday. As we have heard, the referee in the Macclesfield-Southport game was a quiet sort and the game passed off without incident. Worse than the loss, in the interests of sweating the bet I had to endure Mark Clemmit and Helen Skelton for two hours, who combined to make me hanker for the halcyon days of Elton Welsby and Jim Rosenthal.

So, the forward book is back over £3,000 again. Some of that comes to fruition or disappointment this weekend with Saracens tonight, Mukhadram and Morandi tomorrow, Tampa Bay on Sunday and all the usual progress from (and yes I have counted them) upwards of 40 poisitions ue to see action this weekend

Some of it stretches to June next year, when England march to World Cup glory after we've forgotten to lay the 33-1 off  

£3,000 of forward bets?

Jeez, we really need, I think, to put a cap on the sum we invest in forward bets, that is a big number tied up.

Very important for Fred as a whole, of course, that we have a good forward book, that's half the fun, & profit, but that figure has no upper ceiling at present, & who knows how high it could go if left unchecked, or how far into the future it may stretch. Fred wont be here indefinitely, or at least, I wont. 

As a starting point for debate, can I suggest a figure of £3,000, or £3,500? Or at least some formula to manage it.

Views please.

It just makes no sense not to control it.

And wow @ 40 of our positions in play this weekend! Incred.