Tips for Tikay

[JaffaCake]

paddy going 11/10 the pair in Heisman....should we be piling into Ray Winston's daughter? I've got quite a lump on Mariota, is it time to abandon ship?

[redarmi]

The Adrian Peterson rushing bet didn't break the magic "buck" mark. Tighty was right in that he had 2 TDs, so relied on, but his 75 yards weren't enough.

Are things at the Vikings so bad now that they are a one trick pony with AP? Are teams just closing down the middle and making the QB (Ponder or whoever else wins the Minnesota Tombola that week) throw to less confident receivers? Washington's defence against the run isn't stellar, but stick a few fat blokes in the mix and even the best find it hard to break them down?

I'm asking this all blind, having not seen the game. Just curious going forward, really, because it seems to me the Vikings not having any other options is either really good for Peterson or really bad.

It is interesting, and something I thought about when you put up the Peterson bet yesterday, when it is so obvious that a teams offensive weapon is going to be a certain player.  I often bet over their yards in those situations but if it is so obvious to us then it becomes so obvious to a Defensive co-ordinator too and I often wonder if that negates the value of a bet a bit.  It has happened twice with AP now in live games with the other example being against the Giants.  Obviously that doesn't make him 'easy' to stop but when you line up with 8 men on the line against him it is tougher and the single coverage receivers might be a better bet especially when you can figure out which one will get the targets (which wouldn't have been easy last night).


Peterson was given 20 touches I think and ran for 75 yards. 3 of those touches were negative yardage and most were against "8 men in the box" so the problem for them is a) better protection needed and b) need some better receivers and a deep threat quarterback that teams have to respect, thus taking defenders away from the run.

Quite frustrating watching the Vikings play-action (pretend to give it to Peterson) and try to be balanced with their other offensive options 

Anyway the Vikings did well in the second half last night. Would be a serious team with a top quarterback and a couple more receiving options.

Garcon anytime landed anyway, and we could/should have had 10-1 first TD on the opening drive too. Fine lines.

[kukushkin88]

paddy going 11/10 the pair in Heisman....should we be piling into Ray Winston's daughter? I've got quite a lump on Mariota, is it time to abandon ship?

It's a considerable act of generosity, definitely time to get out.

[redarmi]

paddy going 11/10 the pair in Heisman....should we be piling into Ray Winston's daughter? I've got quite a lump on Mariota, is it time to abandon ship?

11/10 is a ridiculously good price.  I would have a max bet at that price.  I would say that AJ McCarron is probably even 2nd favourite now.  FSU haven't got to play another team with a winning record.  Winston is effectively 6 lengths clear coming to the last.

[TightEnd]

paddy going 11/10 the pair in Heisman....should we be piling into Ray Winston's daughter? I've got quite a lump on Mariota, is it time to abandon ship?

11/10 is a ridiculously good price.  I would have a max bet at that price.  I would say that AJ McCarron is probably even 2nd favourite now.  FSU haven't got to play another team with a winning record.  Winston is effectively 6 lengths clear coming to the last.

The thread should definitely get what it can on Winston at 11/10

It has £20 Mariotta at 25-1, fantastic spot, but last night was a game changer

[Doobs]

I was expecting to go through the usual 100; 90; 80.......10;5; 3.46.

But they laid 100 first time.  Makes me think I should have gone higher.

[Tal]

Mariota has said he had injured his knee before the game and that might have affected his performance (I assume he's a mobile QB like a Vick or Newton?)

Lots of NFL scouts reported to have been at the game. Hypothetically, say Jacksonville were rumoured to have agreed a deal with him in principle (let us assume they finish bottom so get first pick in the draft). Would this affect his Heismann chances?

[horseplayer]

pp just laid me a small bet in a shop

surprised with a lot of fred big hitters behind it, still appears to be there

gd lk all

[TightEnd]

Lots of NFL scouts reported to have been at the game. Hypothetically, say Jacksonville were rumoured to have agreed a deal with him in principle (let us assume they finish bottom so get first pick in the draft). Would this affect his Heismann chances?

A complete red herring

Firstly Jacksonville do not even have the first pick currently, Tampa Bay do

Secondly they may not want him

Thirdly the Heisman is voted on and decided before the NFL regular season finishes, so no team would know where exactly they are drafting by the time the Heisman is over and done with

Deals before the draft are rare, occasionally a couple of days before the draft. Much can happen in the four months from end of regular season to draft day

[Tal]

Lots of NFL scouts reported to have been at the game. Hypothetically, say Jacksonville were rumoured to have agreed a deal with him in principle (let us assume they finish bottom so get first pick in the draft). Would this affect his Heismann chances?

A complete red herring

Firstly Jacksonville do not even have the first pick currently, Tampa Bay do

Secondly they may not want him

Thirdly the Heisman is voted on and decided before the NFL regular season finishes, so no team would know where exactly they are drafting by the time the Heisman is over and done with

Deals before the draft are rare, occasionally a couple of days before the draft. Much can happen in the four months from end of regular season to draft day

Fair enough. Hence the question. I am aware that Tampa are currently bottom, but with several narrow losses this season and Jax having lost one of their best players for the season, I'm figuring it's much more likely Jax finish bottom.

Like I say, this stuff is all new to me, so just trying to understand what factors affect the price.

[tikay]

Rich,

I never had time last night to detail those 3 NFL bets, sorry, & just got back Online. Will try & do it shortly.

For now, we had £10 First TD @10/1 (WH), £25 Anytime TD @ 6/4 (WH) & £44 the AP Hurrying Up bet. 

[tikay]

Will catch up on today's suggestions shortly, too.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £423.31

Outstanding Bets £2708.66

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=32

A loss of £37 yesterday

India beat the West Indies. As previously described the two opportunities to lay both occured in the 4-5am hours of the morning our time, and so we were left with the £20 loss. A lesson to learn there for the Ashes series. No point backing to lay if you can only do it when Head elder or the person recommending is asleep!

A loss of £17 on the Vikings game last night. Could have been better, but at least one of the bets comes in

In the Golf, well placed in Australia. Scott 1st two clear at the half way point, Fowler T2 and Leisman 4 behind T19

Less positive today in Turkey, Casey now T31 Six off the lead after a 73 today

The Mariotta bet has been discussed above and suffered its first reverse on the run down from 25-1 to odds on, last night

In Europa Group E Dnipro won 2-0, Fiorentina came from behind to win 2-1 too, so that bet could go down to the wire

1    Fiorentina    4    4    0    0    10    2    8    12    
2    FC Dnipro 4    3    0    1    6    2    4    9    

Dnipro have to go to Fiorentina last match of the group    

[horseplayer]

If the plan was to lay could not thread just leave an order up overnight?

Ok you probably will not lay at the optimal time but still

[TightEnd]

If the plan was to lay could not thread just leave an order up overnight?

Ok you probably will not lay at the optimal time but still

Yes.

Didn't think it through/timezones/half arsed strategy