Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

If you still want the full 20 each way Tony I will lay you the difference.

Just PM me with how much you want.

Cheers

Morning Phil,

Sorry, I was not able to reply last night, had too many poker tables on the go. (= more than 1). 

It's a little late now really, the 2nd Round has taken place. Our Man had a tidy round, -1, but 4 players shot -5 or -6.

To be honest, I'm not sure I'd feel comfortable betting with a mate, & funking for the win.

Anyway, too late now, but thank you.

The NFL Dream Holiday awaits you Mr Q......

[exstream]

Trip to newcastle races today.
Any tips?

[Tal]

"the fact that Ryan Fitzpatrick is at QB...is probably good news"

Couldn't help but laugh.

[Omm]

There is a Facebook campaign to get AC/DC to xmas no 1, there odds have already been cut but 9/4 is still available. The last time this was done was to stop xfactor being no1 and that was also via a Facebook campaign( can't remember who but I'm sure someone here will help). The campaign has not got full traction yet but it is asking people to download the track from15th December and this is something EVERYONE can affect if they get behind. Xfactor are once again going for number 1 so in effect this is to stop them. Once the campaign gains legs the 9/4 will easily be odds on.

The main dangers could be Lily Allen who is doing the John Lewis advert and of course someone may come out of the woodwork if they release a charity single I.e the fishwives choir.

However I would say based on this campaign being succussful last time there is a high chance it will work again.

Do you think this is any good for Fred?

[tikay]

There is a Facebook campaign to get AC/DC to xmas no 1, there odds have already been cut but 9/4 is still available. The last time this was done was to stop xfactor being no1 and that was also via a Facebook campaign( can't remember who but I'm sure someone here will help). The campaign has not got full traction yet but it is asking people to download the track from15th December and this is something EVERYONE can affect if they get behind. Xfactor are once again going for number 1 so in effect this is to stop them. Once the campaign gains legs the 9/4 will easily be odds on.

The main dangers could be Lily Allen who is doing the John Lewis advert and of course someone may come out of the woodwork if they release a charity single I.e the fishwives choir.

However I would say based on this campaign being succussful last time there is a high chance it will work again.

Do you think this is any good for Fred?

Thanks Omm, let us see what our resident Novelty Exprerts have to say.*

Personally, anything that has any Facebook connection is a big turn-off for me.

*I mean't, of course, Experts in Novelty.

[scotty2hatty]

Eclipse Semis

Airlie Impact 8:19

http://www.racingpost.com/greyhounds/card.sd#resultDay=2013-11-15&raceId=1261847

Sawpit Sensation 8:52

http://www.racingpost.com/greyhounds/card.sd#resultDay=2013-11-15&raceId=1261853

[Doobs]

There is a Facebook campaign to get AC/DC to xmas no 1, there odds have already been cut but 9/4 is still available. The last time this was done was to stop xfactor being no1 and that was also via a Facebook campaign( can't remember who but I'm sure someone here will help). The campaign has not got full traction yet but it is asking people to download the track from15th December and this is something EVERYONE can affect if they get behind. Xfactor are once again going for number 1 so in effect this is to stop them. Once the campaign gains legs the 9/4 will easily be odds on.

The main dangers could be Lily Allen who is doing the John Lewis advert and of course someone may come out of the woodwork if they release a charity single I.e the fishwives choir.

However I would say based on this campaign being succussful last time there is a high chance it will work again.

Do you think this is any good for Fred?

Thanks Omm, let us see what our resident Novelty Exprerts have to say.*

Personally, anything that has any Facebook connection is a big turn-off for me.

*I mean't, of course, Experts in Novelty.

It worked once in 2009 with Rage Against The Machine, but there have been multiple unsuccessful campaigns afterwards eg http://news.qthemusic.com/2011/11/the_people_vs_x-factor_five_ch.html

This looks like an absolute bookies benefit. 

[tikay]

Eclipse Semis

Airlie Impact 8:19

http://www.racingpost.com/greyhounds/card.sd#resultDay=2013-11-15&raceId=1261847

Sawpit Sensation 8:52

www.racingpost.com/greyhounds/card.sd#resultDay=2013-11-15&raceId=1261847

Thanks Scott.

Think the 2nd link is the wrong one, should be.....

http://www.racingpost.com/greyhounds/card.sd#resultDay=2013-11-15&raceId=1261853

Rather a shame this is not being televised this evening, but good luck to all those on board.

[scotty2hatty]

Eclipse Semis

Airlie Impact 8:19

http://www.racingpost.com/greyhounds/card.sd#resultDay=2013-11-15&raceId=1261847

Sawpit Sensation 8:52

www.racingpost.com/greyhounds/card.sd#resultDay=2013-11-15&raceId=1261847

Thanks, somehow managed to copy and paste the same link twice.

Thanks Scott.

Think the 2nd link is the wrong one, should be.....

http://www.racingpost.com/greyhounds/card.sd#resultDay=2013-11-15&raceId=1261853

Rather a shame this is not being televised this evening, but good luck to all those on board.

[tikay]

The Ashes starts next Wednesday in Brisbane

England defend, having won this summer 3-0

Swann took 26 wickets, Ryan Harris 24

Shane Watson and Ian Bell topped the batting in terms of runs for their teams

I have really struggled to find value for this series, looked every day for the past ten days and lots of things look priced in

--

In terms of what to expect. I think it will be close. Australia are an improving team particularly in seam bowling. The pitches will definitely not be prepared to start dry and turn early, as the English pitches were. Absolutley no point giving Swann a sniff, so neutralise him and go fast and pacy in terms of pitch preparation and take your chances

A drawn series is 9-2, but thats too skinny. England to win at 11-10 definitely too tight

--

Brisbane - tends to be flat, batsman's pitch
Adelaide - always flat....slight change this time due to extensive ground redevelopment that encloses the ground and could aid swing
Perth...fast, bouncy. Australia usually win here
Melbourne..tends to give tall seamers a chance
Sydney..often turns, but again extensive redevelopment here and swing has been coming back to the fore

--

Two suggested bets

1.

Ian Bell this summer was in the form of his life. In the Ashes this summer 562 runs including 3 centuries and 2 fifties. Impeccable technique, superb temperament and right in the sweet spot of his career

Unibet offer 6/4 2 or more centuries this winter.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/ashes/ian-bell/total-centuries



6/4 is generous, in my opinion. There is comparatively little weather threat, and we should expect Bell to have ten innings.

Not sure if Unibet is on the thread list. Medium sized bet if so


2

Top Series Run scorer

This is for both sides combined

Alistair Cook had a poor summer. In the Ashes 277 runs only, 3 fifties, 0 hundreds.



There was a hint of a technical flaw outside off-stump and against the new ball he was not as prolific as usual

Contrast this with two other stats

His Test Career 97 matches 7801 runs at 48, 25 hundreds

Last time in Australia  766 runs, ave. 127.66, 3 centuries, 2 fifties

So the questions

- Is he on the downside?

A. Probably not, only 28 years old and a fantastic worker. Has ironed out problems with Gooch before and come back to score lots of runs

- Are Australia better than the last Tour where he excelled?

A Probably, 766 runs is not likely this time round!

Sky Bet 6-1 888 11/2 and Unibet 11/2 are all too high for Top series batsman

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/ashes/top-batsman

Winner of this market will need to score 550+, probably 600+ runs


Any injury risks coming to the fore with Clarke (back), Pieterson (knee) gives a boost to the bet too

Of the other candidates Watson has been playing cricket constantly for 18 months, a few niggles aside. A good chance he'll be injured this series

Rogers, Warner, Smith and Bailey probably not prolific enough to score 550+ Bailey was a tempter at 16/1 e/w but will likely bat 6. Big ask to be scoring heavily all series from there

Trott and Bell are risks to the bet

Carberry, Root - asking a lot for them to score the 550+ needed to win this bet on their first Australian tour


Personally, doing my usual of pricing it up before I looked at the market, I made Cook 4-1 favourite here. Taking the view that a rebound in form was likely and going from there.

Thanks for these, Rich.

They require the nut worst combo of Accounts for me, one I don't bet with, & 2 I don't have accounts with. Ugh.

I'm going to open a UNIBET Account now, to get on, but I don't want to Deposit more than I need, as I can't imagine using them too often.

So, how much are you Recommending we bet, please? Whatever you feel is right is fine by me, but I gauge your confidence by your Recomend size. 

Meanwhile, I'll get the UNIBET account opened, then I'll Deposit once you've replied.

[tikay]

Stand by your beds, Doobs (Expert in novelty bets) has aired his view, but now a genuine Novelty Expert is in the thread.

Morning chompy.


 

[tikay]

The Ashes starts next Wednesday in Brisbane

England defend, having won this summer 3-0

Swann took 26 wickets, Ryan Harris 24

Shane Watson and Ian Bell topped the batting in terms of runs for their teams

I have really struggled to find value for this series, looked every day for the past ten days and lots of things look priced in

--

In terms of what to expect. I think it will be close. Australia are an improving team particularly in seam bowling. The pitches will definitely not be prepared to start dry and turn early, as the English pitches were. Absolutley no point giving Swann a sniff, so neutralise him and go fast and pacy in terms of pitch preparation and take your chances

A drawn series is 9-2, but thats too skinny. England to win at 11-10 definitely too tight

--

Brisbane - tends to be flat, batsman's pitch
Adelaide - always flat....slight change this time due to extensive ground redevelopment that encloses the ground and could aid swing
Perth...fast, bouncy. Australia usually win here
Melbourne..tends to give tall seamers a chance
Sydney..often turns, but again extensive redevelopment here and swing has been coming back to the fore

--

Two suggested bets

1.

Ian Bell this summer was in the form of his life. In the Ashes this summer 562 runs including 3 centuries and 2 fifties. Impeccable technique, superb temperament and right in the sweet spot of his career

Unibet offer 6/4 2 or more centuries this winter.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/ashes/ian-bell/total-centuries



6/4 is generous, in my opinion. There is comparatively little weather threat, and we should expect Bell to have ten innings.

Not sure if Unibet is on the thread list. Medium sized bet if so


2

Top Series Run scorer

This is for both sides combined

Alistair Cook had a poor summer. In the Ashes 277 runs only, 3 fifties, 0 hundreds.



There was a hint of a technical flaw outside off-stump and against the new ball he was not as prolific as usual

Contrast this with two other stats

His Test Career 97 matches 7801 runs at 48, 25 hundreds

Last time in Australia  766 runs, ave. 127.66, 3 centuries, 2 fifties

So the questions

- Is he on the downside?

A. Probably not, only 28 years old and a fantastic worker. Has ironed out problems with Gooch before and come back to score lots of runs

- Are Australia better than the last Tour where he excelled?

A Probably, 766 runs is not likely this time round!

Sky Bet 6-1 888 11/2 and Unibet 11/2 are all too high for Top series batsman

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/ashes/top-batsman

Winner of this market will need to score 550+, probably 600+ runs


Any injury risks coming to the fore with Clarke (back), Pieterson (knee) gives a boost to the bet too

Of the other candidates Watson has been playing cricket constantly for 18 months, a few niggles aside. A good chance he'll be injured this series

Rogers, Warner, Smith and Bailey probably not prolific enough to score 550+ Bailey was a tempter at 16/1 e/w but will likely bat 6. Big ask to be scoring heavily all series from there

Trott and Bell are risks to the bet

Carberry, Root - asking a lot for them to score the 550+ needed to win this bet on their first Australian tour


Personally, doing my usual of pricing it up before I looked at the market, I made Cook 4-1 favourite here. Taking the view that a rebound in form was likely and going from there.

Thanks for these, Rich.

They require the nut worst combo of Accounts for me, one I don't bet with, & 2 I don't have accounts with. Ugh.

I'm going to open a UNIBET Account now, to get on, but I don't want to Deposit more than I need, as I can't imagine using them too often.

So, how much are you Recommending we bet, please? Whatever you feel is right is fine by me, but I gauge your confidence by your Recomend size. 

Meanwhile, I'll get the UNIBET account opened, then I'll Deposit once you've replied.

I now see that Wm Hill also go 11/2, Bell, Top Series Batsman, so we will do that one with them.

[Chompy]

Xmas No.1 is a bleurgh market these days imo. Wouldn't have a clue whether 9/4 reps value or not tbh, but it doesn't feel anything exciting.

Susan Boyle/Elvis Presley? Yikes!

[TightEnd]

£50 11/2 William Hill is fine (NOT Bell, but Cook)

I had £75 Bell 6/4 2 or more centuries in mind

[tikay]

£50 11/2 William Hill is fine (NOT Bell, but Cook)

I had £75 Bell 6/4 2 or more centuries in mind

Yes yes, as I stated, Cook, Cook, not Bell.

Best regards,

MisclicksRus.