Tips for Tikay

[bobby1]

Hi Omm,

Without looking my admittedly split second price was about 12/1. Having looked at the list tho there are a load of players there I couldn't bet with counterfeit at these prices.

Rory is swinging nicely back into form but Stenny can have black spells and far from certain to maintain is current form for the next year. Rose will no doubt be steady but outside those three it feels like the gap between Poulter and some of the players in behind him should be much bigger. I picked about 25 prices out of that list that look laughable too. Schwartzel at 28/1 would be my idea of one of the better prices in that list too coz if he regains his putting touch this season the rest of his game is in very good shape and obv he might get the ball rolling with a win 2morrow, all be it a pretty low key one.

Poulter's lack of wins would be the drawback but his major record is good and he loves money so at 16/1 I think you have a really good each way bet at a qtr the first 4.

cheers

[TightEnd]

Click to see full-size image.

[Jamier-Host]

9 tries   Australia Jarryd Hayne
            Australia Brett Morris
8 tries   England Ryan Hall
5 tries   New Zealand Roger Tuivasa-Sheck


We are paid at half stakes, full 14-1 e/w price.

Ta very much Mr Prew - on your recommendation I backed him @ 10's and then couldn't really not go back in when the 14's popped up.  Nice upswing after a rough coupla weeks of punting!

[Doobs]

Click to see full-size image.

Think Susanna, Nat or Ashley could all easily be in the bottom 2 here.  Susanna worst of the 3 this week, but still managed a couple of from those not watching.  Patrick looked generously marked which should save him.  Abbey nailed it, which worries me a bit as have got 0 pence on.

[Sheriff Fatman]

Surely he won't go to Barnsley, he has been managing Man U for the last ten years he said!!!

I have the same doubts, hence the caveats.  Ours is a fairly unique manager market though in that it's one of the few where there's never a clear-cut candidate who everyone's aware of as soon as the job becomes vacant.

However, it doesn't take much for the prices to shift quickly on a 'hot name', as happened last time around on quite a few candidates at various stages (e.g. Terry Butcher) so it's a case of trying to pick out the higher priced names and hope one strikes gold.  You also sometimes get discrepancies between the 2 or 3 sites who'll have this market up there.

To be fair, of the two, Mellon is the better bet at 16/1.  He's highly regarded internally and, as with Flitcroft, might get the job if results pick up quickly, and there's also a rule I believe where he's deemed to be the appointment after a certain number of games in charge (10, from memory).  It's not beyond the realms of possibility when there's no obvious candidate that this could drag on or he could get the job almost by default.

I'll keep my ear close to the ground as this develops and might suggest a few more later down the line if we have a similar situation to before.  No-one's ever getting rich from the limited stakes available, but no-one can lose chunks either.

I'm sure Marky147 will vouch for the above, as he became more of an expert on this market than I did last time around   I think he did OK in the end too.

[Sheriff Fatman]

For everyone's info, we have a different board in place to last year, who are certainly more credible and less 'corner-shop'.

They've already announced that no further statements will be made until at least Wednesday (we're away at Brighton on Tuesday evening), which gives a nice amount of time for 'silly season' to kick in with regard to speculation, hot tips and inside info on the forums.

As a supporter, I don't know who I want at the moment.  I know for sure that I don't want Michael Appleton, who is the current favourite for some reason.  How the hell does he get linked to all these roles?  If Skeletor gets the job then I may be flinging the season ticket at the dugout soon enough (albeit I sit on the other side of the ground so it'll be one hell of a throw!)

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit in November £208.89

Outstanding Bets £3194.51

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=32

November finished with a flat day. I have settled RLWC Joint top try scorer Brett Morris as a dead heat for £77 profit. tikay to check Betfred please, to ensure this is correct. Blackpool also beat Sheffield Wednesday for £24 profit

Losers, Austria Vienna for an assumed £50 loss (to be confirmed) and both William Hill offer horses for -£50

As ever on a Saturday, a very busy day for lots of long term positions with a lot more to come tomorrow

Starting with the good news

- Arsenal's 3-0 victory at Cardiff took them seven points clear at the top of the league ahead of tomorrow's games. Top three bet looking terrific

- Newcastle's win over WBA is a good start to that handicap bet

- Palace lost at Norwich and with Sunderland gaining a point at Villa, Palace are bottom again

- The Mighty Foxes beat Millwall 3-0. With Burnley and QPR losing this takes Leicester clear at the top, and a good start for The Camel's bet

- Ings scored for Burnley. he is now 1 behind McCormack in the Championship goalscorer lists

- Sheff U point at Leyton Orient is encouraging

The bad news

-  Barnsley, just Barnsley.

- Cardiff loss on Handicap, though good news for the Hull top promoted side bet

- Doncaster's surprise win over QPR takes them 8 points clear in South Yorkshire clubs too

- Tranmere won again, that man Ryan Lowe scoring again

- Watford lost at home to Yeovil. This is turning tricky. Watford are now only a point ahead of the bottom half teams, and we have a big bet on top half at a skinny price. Some form soon please!

- No other goalscorers or assists from our lists

 

 

[Marky147]

Surely he won't go to Barnsley, he has been managing Man U for the last ten years he said!!!

I have the same doubts, hence the caveats.  Ours is a fairly unique manager market though in that it's one of the few where there's never a clear-cut candidate who everyone's aware of as soon as the job becomes vacant.

However, it doesn't take much for the prices to shift quickly on a 'hot name', as happened last time around on quite a few candidates at various stages (e.g. Terry Butcher) so it's a case of trying to pick out the higher priced names and hope one strikes gold.  You also sometimes get discrepancies between the 2 or 3 sites who'll have this market up there.

To be fair, of the two, Mellon is the better bet at 16/1.  He's highly regarded internally and, as with Flitcroft, might get the job if results pick up quickly, and there's also a rule I believe where he's deemed to be the appointment after a certain number of games in charge (10, from memory).  It's not beyond the realms of possibility when there's no obvious candidate that this could drag on or he could get the job almost by default.

I'll keep my ear close to the ground as this develops and might suggest a few more later down the line if we have a similar situation to before.  No-one's ever getting rich from the limited stakes available, but no-one can lose chunks either.

I'm sure Marky147 will vouch for the above, as he became more of an expert on this market than I did last time around   I think he did OK in the end too.

The Barnsley market was a rollercoaster just like Blackpool, but fortunately it worked out a lot better!

[Sheriff Fatman]

The bad news

-  Barnsley, just Barnsley.

I feel your pain!

It's incredible to me that we did as good a job as anyone could have wished for in retaining continuity from last season.  We kept Flicker and his backroom team, and re-signed all the out of contract players, other than Harewood, whilst making some decent-looking additions to the squad depth.

However, the performances on the pitch couldn't be more different, and it's almost as if Flicker gave himself too many options that he didn't know what to do with them for the best.  In the end, he's paid the price for sticking with 'favourites' for too long, and resorting to a flurry of loan signings rather than the original policy of letting the youth develop through the ranks (many of whom have now been shipped out on loan to get games).

Worst of all is that, in relative terms, this was the season where there looked to be genuine reason for optimism that this wouldn't be another relegation dog-fight as for the last 7 years.  It's actually turned out to be the worst one of all, and arguably we're in deeper shit now than we were last season (as we've already played home games against most of the teams around us, and failed to win any of them).

Nothing like a challenge then Mr New Manager, whoever you turn out to be!

[tikay]

Tighty/Mere.

The Brett Bet was settled by BetFred as per this settlement slip.



10/23/2013 9:32:13 PM  203/
217  W:10.00 S:10.00  Single  2013 World Cup - Tournament Outright/Top Tryscorer  Morris, Brett   14/1  Won  C  £20.00  £195.00 

[MereNovice]

November 2013 Figures

Closed bets: 112
Amount wagered: £2,764.62
Profit/loss: £306.39
ROI: 11.08%

Number of "sports" bet on: 14
Most popular: Horses (33),  Football (28), NFL (16).
Most profitable: Cricket (£342.50), Rugby League (£135.00), Golf (£128.09)
Least profitable: NFL (-£149.47), Rugby Union (-£80.00), Horses (-£59.77)

Number of tipsters: 24 including 0 new tipsters.


Overall statistics (since February 2012)

Total closed bets: 2,547
Amount wagered: £83,268.88
Profit/loss: £4,054.12
ROI: 4.87%

Number of "sports" bet on: 30
Most popular:  Football (642), Horses(617), Golf (232), Cricket(174).

Most and least profitable sports (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
        
Sport               Profit  Amt Bet       ROI   No.
Horses   2,080.66   21,338.03   9.75   617
Football   1,833.51   20,719.69   8.85   642
NFL   679.24   5,590.30   12.15   132
...
Formula1   -383.00   824.00   -46.48   31
Golf   -862.76   6,328.34   -13.63   232
Basketball   -1,048.12   2,763.66   -37.93   61


The complete list is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=4


Total number of tipsters: 138


Number of different bookies/exchanges/agents: 36

Most and least profitable bookies (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
        
Bookie          Profit     Amt Bet   ROI     No.
BoyleSports   1,653.90   3,971.45   41.64   98
BetVictor   1,492.80   11,867.00   12.58   371
WilliamHill   1,145.88   13,025.66   8.80   414
...
BetFred   -326.12   5,176.00   -6.30   166
PaddyPower   -348.83   6,478.96   -5.38   272
Betfair   -761.86   9,900.65   -7.69   202


The complete list is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=7

[Tal]

Top MereNovicing, MereNovice.

[Sheriff Fatman]

I now understand why Appleton is currently favourite.   It's due to our new Chief Exec, Ben Mansford, being his agent previously:

http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/sport/pompey/appleton-encouraged-by-positive-trust-talks-1-4424830


Given that he'd be a universally unpopular choice among the fan-base (and the anti-Appleton campaign now seems to have been kicked off in earnest on the forums), this appointment will be an interesting test for Mansford, who's done all the right things so far in terms of supporter engagement, but would undo that in a heartbeat if Skeletor gets the job.

Take your own views on what this means for Appleton's prospects, but for now I'm viewing this as the first (hopefully) unrealistic candidate to be installed as favourite, and I expect his price to shorten as the link to Mansford becomes more widely public.  He was 3/1 yesterday, now 2/1, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him go odds on between now and Wednesday.  From my perspective, that means potential value elsewhere while this happens.  Currently, 12/1 on Mellon (in from 16/1) is still the one that stands out for now.  If anything, the Appleton link will strengthen Mellon's core support for now and perhaps make him the 'acceptable' alternative.

Right, time to add my voice to the 'anyone but Skeletor' campaign!

[Marky147]

Tighty/Mere.

The Brett Bet was settled by BetFred as per this settlement slip.



10/23/2013 9:32:13 PM  203/
217  W:10.00 S:10.00  Single  2013 World Cup - Tournament Outright/Top Tryscorer  Morris, Brett   14/1  Won  C  £20.00  £195.00 

Bet that it was a nice surprise to get paid double what you were expecting!

Even nicer to be able to get more than £5 on

[doubleup]

Betfair   -761.86   9,900.65   -7.69   202

What kind of a mug loses on Betfair - how did that happen?