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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16419308 times)
JaffaCake
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« Reply #62010 on: December 18, 2013, 01:57:54 PM »

The PP NBA offer is on again tonight, and for the next couple.

Tonight's game is Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat, the two top sides in the east, so it's likely to be close (and likely to trigger the money back as points in the last 10 secs happen much more in close games, where they foul opponents to stop the clock.

No price up yet as Lebron, Miami's star, is a game-time decision with an ankle injury. I'll be very surprised if he doesn't play tbh, seems fine. They lost to the Pacers last week and don't play them again for months so it's got some importance. Indiana also have the better record, so tie-breakers may come into it in the playoffs way down the line.

I'll be online and follow all the guys on twitter who will have Lebron news when it comes, stay tuned!

(tbh with the concession whichever side we pick is a value bet I reckon, but they won't price it while he's uncertain by the looks of it, tho this train wifi is patchy so might be there somehwhere)
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redarmi
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« Reply #62011 on: December 18, 2013, 02:35:08 PM »

The PP NBA offer is on again tonight, and for the next couple.

Tonight's game is Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat, the two top sides in the east, so it's likely to be close (and likely to trigger the money back as points in the last 10 secs happen much more in close games, where they foul opponents to stop the clock.

No price up yet as Lebron, Miami's star, is a game-time decision with an ankle injury. I'll be very surprised if he doesn't play tbh, seems fine. They lost to the Pacers last week and don't play them again for months so it's got some importance. Indiana also have the better record, so tie-breakers may come into it in the playoffs way down the line.

I'll be online and follow all the guys on twitter who will have Lebron news when it comes, stay tuned!

(tbh with the concession whichever side we pick is a value bet I reckon, but they won't price it while he's uncertain by the looks of it, tho this train wifi is patchy so might be there somehwhere)

Definitely this.  Obv it is nice to do a bit of work and grab a bit extra equity but I dont think it actually matters that much.  You could bet a point the wrong side and still probably be +EV
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« Reply #62012 on: December 18, 2013, 02:35:22 PM »

be strong tikay, he only wanted you to put £20 e/w on it

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I assume they are the bouncers.
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« Reply #62013 on: December 18, 2013, 03:10:55 PM »

love it when redarmi agrees, feels like a gold star from one of your fave teachers Smiley
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« Reply #62014 on: December 18, 2013, 03:18:07 PM »

be strong tikay, he only wanted you to put £20 e/w on it

 Click to see full-size image.


I assume they are the bouncers.

Fashion Police arresting him for wearing his Baseball cap backwards.
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« Reply #62015 on: December 18, 2013, 03:26:10 PM »

Furthest English team looks kinda interesting according to odds.

Man Utd/Olympiakos
City/Barca
Arsenal/Bayern
Chelsea/Gala

Arsenal are highly unlikely to go through sadly, definitely nut worst draw. Chelsea and United look like they will go through, whilst the City/Barca tie looks a lot closer than people think, personally think they can get through if they take a lead to Nou Camp.

City are quite big with PP to be the the furthest English team, 9/2, 3/1 bigger elsewhere.

Suggest £20.
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« Reply #62016 on: December 18, 2013, 03:59:38 PM »

Not sure I'm in love with this one.

Man City are the best part of 2/1 to qualify. Man United are 1/5, Chelsea are 1/4. That means it's an odds-on shot that both Man U and Chelsea make the quarters. You'd need a lot to go right to bink and think the 15/8 to get past Barca is a better bet tbh.
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tikay
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« Reply #62017 on: December 18, 2013, 04:05:52 PM »

Furthest English team looks kinda interesting according to odds.

Man Utd/Olympiakos
City/Barca
Arsenal/Bayern
Chelsea/Gala

Arsenal are highly unlikely to go through sadly, definitely nut worst draw. Chelsea and United look like they will go through, whilst the City/Barca tie looks a lot closer than people think, personally think they can get through if they take a lead to Nou Camp.

City are quite big with PP to be the the furthest English team, 9/2, 3/1 bigger elsewhere.

Suggest £20.

Thanks Aaron.

I think this particular cat can be skinned in a variety of ways, but I'm not at all sure this is the best one.
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TightEnd
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« Reply #62018 on: December 18, 2013, 07:22:22 PM »

TV Gold with a tip attached

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« Reply #62019 on: December 18, 2013, 09:38:28 PM »

I wouldn't be emptying the clip on Tim Sherwood.
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« Reply #62020 on: December 18, 2013, 10:18:03 PM »

I wouldn't be emptying the clip on Tim Sherwood.


Empty the clip on Tim Sherwood
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« Reply #62021 on: December 18, 2013, 10:29:17 PM »

Hi teeks, prices up on the Indiana @ Miami game, I've gone for Indiana +3. Lebron is a game time decision, but Indiana have proved a tough match up in recent times and I quite like +3 anyway.

Interestingly, this is a game that not only is a score in the last 10 secs more likely than average, as the teams are pretty closely matched, meaning fouls near the end etc become more likely, but when they played last week, Lance Stephenson of Indy broke away for a cheap dunk when the Pacers had already won the game, the time when in general the losing team won't bother fouling as they won't ever catch up, and the winning team will just hold the ball and run the clock down. Stepherson's cheap 'exclamation point dunk' might mean we get another tonight and get our money back if we're losing, let's home so, bet to nothing...
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tikay
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« Reply #62022 on: December 18, 2013, 10:42:34 PM »

Hi teeks, prices up on the Indiana @ Miami game, I've gone for Indiana +3. Lebron is a game time decision, but Indiana have proved a tough match up in recent times and I quite like +3 anyway.

Interestingly, this is a game that not only is a score in the last 10 secs more likely than average, as the teams are pretty closely matched, meaning fouls near the end etc become more likely, but when they played last week, Lance Stephenson of Indy broke away for a cheap dunk when the Pacers had already won the game, the time when in general the losing team won't bother fouling as they won't ever catch up, and the winning team will just hold the ball and run the clock down. Stepherson's cheap 'exclamation point dunk' might mean we get another tonight and get our money back if we're losing, let's home so, bet to nothing...

Thanks Jeff, am on my way.

I expect I'll get tiddearsed something shocking but how much ideally?
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« Reply #62023 on: December 18, 2013, 10:43:24 PM »

I wouldn't be emptying the clip on Tim Sherwood.


Empty the clip on Tim Sherwood

There's a theme here somewhere...

Smiley
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« Reply #62024 on: December 18, 2013, 10:47:24 PM »

Hi teeks, prices up on the Indiana @ Miami game, I've gone for Indiana +3. Lebron is a game time decision, but Indiana have proved a tough match up in recent times and I quite like +3 anyway.

Interestingly, this is a game that not only is a score in the last 10 secs more likely than average, as the teams are pretty closely matched, meaning fouls near the end etc become more likely, but when they played last week, Lance Stephenson of Indy broke away for a cheap dunk when the Pacers had already won the game, the time when in general the losing team won't bother fouling as they won't ever catch up, and the winning team will just hold the ball and run the clock down. Stepherson's cheap 'exclamation point dunk' might mean we get another tonight and get our money back if we're losing, let's home so, bet to nothing...

OK, we loaded up. Indiana +3.5, @ 10/11, Money Back if we lose and a point is scored in the last 10 seconds. They permitted me.........£13.97.

BET PLACED
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