Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Go Rory

[Ironside]

Just seen bill hills are offer 12/1 on Jim Davidson hosting a Saturday night prime time live show  sometime this year on any of the major channels. Five are already in talks with his management team about a tv series is 12/1 value on it being live ? If it is live can't see it  not being prime time Saturday night

[tikay]

Go Rory

Ooohhh.

Doobs alluded to Rory LEADING after 9 holes.......


http://www.europeantour.com/europeantour/season=2014/tournamentid=2014007/leaderboard/index.html

[Ironside]

Go Rory

Ooohhh.

Doobs alluded to Rory LEADING after 9 holes.......


http://www.europeantour.com/europeantour/season=2014/tournamentid=2014007/leaderboard/index.html

he has finished his 18 at -9 or a 63

[tikay]

Go Rory

Ooohhh.

Doobs alluded to Rory LEADING after 9 holes.......


http://www.europeantour.com/europeantour/season=2014/tournamentid=2014007/leaderboard/index.html

he has finished his 18 at -9 or a 63

Ahh, even better, apologies, classic misread.

[BigAdz]

Looks like the rest of us are playing for places already.

[tikay]

I have done 1053 words this morning on the Six Nations, which I will spare you

However the tournament  starts next weekend, always one of the most thrilling sporting tournaments of the year

We can thus try not to ruin February numbers game by game and market by market

Anyway, Rubbish has us on France at 3/1


I looked at the Top Try scorer market

Last year Cuthbert with 4 tries won it, ahead of others on 2 including Fofana

This has informed the way this market is priced up for this year.

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations/top-tryscorer

Cuthbert is priced up to repeat, but I think this might be incorrect. 2 of Cuthbert's 4 tries were in England's capitulation on Cardiff where England's defending was of the cowardly matador with a cape variety in the face of a particularly stroppy bull

This year Wales have to go to Twickenham and Dublin with a number of players out (cf the French win in a Lions year point behind the France bet, with no break for nearly two years injury incidence in the four home nations top players is high)

France have 3 of 5 games at home

They have one of the most sublime players to watch in the Northern Hemisphere, Wesley Fofana. In 2012 with the same set of fixtures Fofana scored 4 tries in the Championship

He now has six 6N tries in total.

Fofana, of Malian descent, is known as "The Cheetah"



1.38 in this one is brilliant. Wonderful stuff



Fofana plays for Clermont alongside Nalaga. He will play fitness permitting all five games. He can create tries out of nothing. With no François Trinh-Duc, no Frédéric Michalak, no Morgan Parra, no Vincent Clerc, no Florian Fritz and no Camille Lopez due to injury Fofana is France's key creative player

While the prospects of Cuthbert, North, Ashton are all in prices, Fofana at 12-1 isn't in my opinion

France will be better this year, they have 3 of 5 at home and the each way, which for Fofana has landed each of the last two years is available at 1/4 the odds

We need also to consider the weather and the possibility that at least the early games of the tournament will be played on heavy pitches in bad weather. This might be said to count against the backs, and try scoring in general, in this years tournament. Possibly a tenuous point, but it might not take 4-5 tries to win this in 2014

Recommendation £20 e/w Wesly Fofana Top Six Nations Try Scorers at 12/1 (1/4 top four) (getVictor, Badbrokes, Corral, Baldfred, But365)

Wonderfully explained and justified, this is what Fred is all about, thanks Rich.

BET PLACED

Rich,

I'm Updating all the Admin at the moment, & I cannot trace who I placed this bet with, so I've placed it (again?) this morning - the 12/1 is still available, & we had £20 EW @ 12/1 with Betfred. It is ONE bet, if I happen to find the original bet, that is now off-thread.

[DungBeetle]

I'm sure price must be correct in a market as liquid as this, but how many times out of 100 do we think Man City win the league from this position?  3 points clear of Chelsea with a better goal difference and about to play them at home.

4/5 looks good price to me?  They just look like a juggernaut at the moment.

[horseplayer]

did not back the offer on Rory this week

looks a wise move

[Longy]

A superbowl has never gone to overtime.

[tikay]

Have we had the maximum on Man City to qualify v Barca yet?

If not I suggest a double maximum at 15/8 with VC

Thanks Keith.

Moments later, you mused if we ought to await news on Augero's fitness, so I was in a bit of a dither.

So, for now, we've had £150 @ 15/8, with BetVictor.

I hope I've understood the bet correctly, as I can't see the Market this morning.

BET PLACED

[sonour]

I have done 1053 words this morning on the Six Nations, which I will spare you

However the tournament  starts next weekend, always one of the most thrilling sporting tournaments of the year

We can thus try not to ruin February numbers game by game and market by market

Anyway, Rubbish has us on France at 3/1


I looked at the Top Try scorer market

Last year Cuthbert with 4 tries won it, ahead of others on 2 including Fofana

This has informed the way this market is priced up for this year.

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations/top-tryscorer

Cuthbert is priced up to repeat, but I think this might be incorrect. 2 of Cuthbert's 4 tries were in England's capitulation on Cardiff where England's defending was of the cowardly matador with a cape variety in the face of a particularly stroppy bull

This year Wales have to go to Twickenham and Dublin with a number of players out (cf the French win in a Lions year point behind the France bet, with no break for nearly two years injury incidence in the four home nations top players is high)

France have 3 of 5 games at home

They have one of the most sublime players to watch in the Northern Hemisphere, Wesley Fofana. In 2012 with the same set of fixtures Fofana scored 4 tries in the Championship

He now has six 6N tries in total.

Fofana, of Malian descent, is known as "The Cheetah"



1.38 in this one is brilliant. Wonderful stuff



Fofana plays for Clermont alongside Nalaga. He will play fitness permitting all five games. He can create tries out of nothing. With no François Trinh-Duc, no Frédéric Michalak, no Morgan Parra, no Vincent Clerc, no Florian Fritz and no Camille Lopez due to injury Fofana is France's key creative player

While the prospects of Cuthbert, North, Ashton are all in prices, Fofana at 12-1 isn't in my opinion

France will be better this year, they have 3 of 5 at home and the each way, which for Fofana has landed each of the last two years is available at 1/4 the odds

We need also to consider the weather and the possibility that at least the early games of the tournament will be played on heavy pitches in bad weather. This might be said to count against the backs, and try scoring in general, in this years tournament. Possibly a tenuous point, but it might not take 4-5 tries to win this in 2014

Recommendation £20 e/w Wesly Fofana Top Six Nations Try Scorers at 12/1 (1/4 top four) (getVictor, Badbrokes, Corral, Baldfred, But365)

Wonderfully explained and justified, this is what Fred is all about, thanks Rich.

BET PLACED

Rich,

I'm Updating all the Admin at the moment, & I cannot trace who I placed this bet with, so I've placed it (again?) this morning - the 12/1 is still available, & we had £20 EW @ 12/1 with Betfred. It is ONE bet, if I happen to find the original bet, that is now off-thread.

Tikay, I placed that bet with 888 who were top price so maybe you did too ?

[tikay]

The Superbowl again

I think it is accepted that the value is in Prop Bets/Sub markets, and we might be able to build a portfolio of such bets

I think we accept this because we are already short on length of National Anthem

I couldn't tell with huge confidence who will win the game, particularly, and the spread is efficiently priced.


I have had a look through the Props

One struck me as interesting

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/seattle-seahawks-at-denver-broncos/total-field-goals

Seattle’s Steven Hauschka made 33 field goals in 16 regular-season games and then hit three in each of the Seahawks’ first two postseason games.

Denver’s Matt Prater hit only 25 field goals during the regular season, Manning was too busy passing for 55 touchdowns, but his production has increased in the playoffs, with five made out of six attempts in two games, with particularly the San Diego defense slowing Manning down.

Between them then, Prater and Hauschka made eleven field goals from twelve attempts in four combined games this postseason.

We might argue that against Seattle’s defense, the incidence of Denver field goals will rise in this game compared to normal. We know that Seattle's offensive strength is the running game with Marshawn Lynch, and that Wilson "game manages" in the absence of leading wide receivers. They can play this style because the defense is so good and they are rarely playing from too many points behind, so field goals keep them in the game.

Touchdowns will likely be tough to come by in the red zone and the Over 3.5 quote available at 11/10 with Spoilsports is a price to look at. We don't have to pay bookie's vig at 11/10


For this bet to land we then need 4 field goals, 2 each for example.

It's the first cold weather superbowl, so comparisions are questionable but the Superbowl records for Field Goals are on the link

http://www.nfl.com/superbowl/records/superbowls/player/fieldgoals

Across 47 superbowls there are 11 individual incidences of a single kicker attempting 4 or more Field goals, many of these in eras where field goals success was 75-80% and not what it is nowadays

Prater this year 96.2%, 25/26
Hauschka this year 94.3%, 33/35

Main risk: if its very windy, but cold on its own is not a deterrent to field goal percentages.

Rich - this bet has NOT been placed yet.

Here is the Market, which remains, I think, largely unchanged.......

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/seattle-seahawks-at-denver-broncos/total-field-goals

Boylesports will not take the bet from me, not even a penny.

The best price available to me for over 3.5 is Evens.

Still seems reasonable, yes?

[tikay]

Tikay, I placed that bet with 888 who were top price so maybe you did too ?

Thanks Lisa, but I don't have a working 888 Account, so it can't be them.

You must be pleased with Rory's progress so far? Odds on in most places!



http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/omega-dubai-desert-classic/winner


Not being nosy, just trying to learn, you don't have to reply, but will you do any trading, as you have a tidy sum in play, as I recall?

[tikay]

I think there's going to be huge value in the Gibraltar +2 coupons.

Gibraltar are the newest uefa country and lowest ranked with very little professional players.

They are however very decent I played against a bunch of their players and they are very good.

In their one and only match they managed to draw 0-0 with Slovakia who are ranked around 20th and had previously beaten Poland 2-1 in the same week.

Gibraltar are a very fit team who are super hard to break down and very patriotic players who care a lot about the cause.

They have a couple of friendlys oming up and the bookies will surely underestimate them.

I'm really not sure they will be underestimated.  Firstly, half of the football odds compilers in the industry either reside in or have spent time in Gib so they know the territory and, in some cases, have played in the league.  The only "name" player they have is Danny Higginbottham who has retired and they have a striker that plays for Farsley.  I agree that there is going to be a lot of patriotism and they will fight for their country but we see this all the time with smaller countries and it doesn't make them value.  I made a similar mistake with Antigua given that all the players played together and were fiercely patriotic but they soon got found out.  Obviously they could be value for any individual game but I think it would be a mistake to think they will be a bet irrespective and, if anything, some of the compilers might overrate them a bit just because they have seen a bit more of them than other smaller nations.

Very shrewd, as always.

Welcome back Stu, you've been missed.