Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Afternoon Mr T.

The bottom 2 sides clash in the Aviva premiership today when Newcastle host Worcester. This is a game Worcester have to win to have a chance of staying up. They have started to improve massively since January and I think they will win this in a dour match. A key factor may well be that Newcastle are missing their captain, as well as their usual scrum half.

Suggest £20 Worcester @ 9/5 with paddy power.

By the way Mr T,we can get a whopping 1/8 on " no drop goal " in the Huddersfield v Warrington rugby league match. Anyone want to propose it?

Excluding a retired Lee Briers, the clubs have got 2 drop goals between them since the start of last season.  So on the face of it, you are correct in stating that the price is likely a good one.  Though we need to be a bit cautious as it is a meeting between top 8 sides, I think you could be on to something.

I'll second it.

[horseplayer]

I posted the Donny bet as i was not around yesterday even so i would not have changed the bet based on the evidence of two races.

Obviously by the time the last had been run it was obvious making ground was impossible.

[horseplayer]

And i posted the Man Utd Bookings bet

And i stated in that post that the stats may be skewed and should be taken with at least some pinch of salt. Hence why a small bet was struck.

[sonour]

I agree.

I know several of the guys on here that know their stuff are selective in using these, if at all.

Maths wise, they may be correct, but race selection has to be a major part of the equation.

I don't agree.

These are purely maths bets and today the maths was good, Meydan included. I know nothing about horse racing and neither do I need to to do these bets. If the price is close to Betfair and they are below say 3/1 they are autobets.

Unless of course you think the price on Betfair is wrong ? If you do then just lay them all on Betfair and you are guaranteed to win, right ?

I am not sure this is correct

Yes for example if you get 6/4 about something that is 2.3 on Betfair then great

but the variables around that 2.3 being anything like accurate for Meydan (and to a lesser extent for very early flat season domestic racing) yesterday are huge aren't they?

- comparing form from 6-9 months ago across countries and continents to try and form a market
- many first time out this season
- some haven't raced on the surface
- very very competitve races

I looked on http://www.dubaiworldcup.com/race/racing-info/results to see 14,16 and 18 runner fields

So we might beat Betfair but Betfair/the whole market might all be wrong and we'd be better off laying every favourite because of all the variables affecting market composition?

It was my understanding that the maths bets worked best in market shapes where you had a shortish favourite or two...something like 7/4, 5/2 6/1 bar and reasonably small field sizes

It also has to be logical that the maths bets work best when other variables are to an extent known?

eg an 8 runner chase at haydock in april when you have a season's form, limited runners, or 9 runner group race at newmarket in september...limited runners, known recent form etc and not on the first day of the season in big fields in inter-continental races?

I am pretty certain that the maths bets put up on most weekends are filtered for suitable races, market shapes etc? 

I follow all the bookie puff on twitter and the more candid accounts were all openly stating that they were happy to take on the short-priced stuff at Meydan yesterday mentioning the type of stuff point to in this post

Anyway, I repeat, this isn't personal and have nothing against Maths bets as a form of making money!.

 I just want the thread to do well, to have good results and to learn from mistakes, if indeed this is one. Its easy just to say nothing but the lack of selectivity stuck out like a sore thumb yesterday. If I am wrong, fine, happy to be educated further 

I want the thread to do well too.

You seem to be saying that in certain races you think the Betfair market is wrong. I'm happy with that.

So when we think the Betfair market is correct can we do the WH mobile offer and when we think the Betfair market is not correct can we lay the horse that we would have picked ?

The only thing I am strongly against is not betting at all in the race where we have the WH mobile offer and and we have a horse at less than 3/1 with the price close to Betfair and BOG.

[bobby1]

I posted the Donny bet as i was not around yesterday even so i would not have changed the bet based on the evidence of two races.

Obviously by the time the last had been run it was obvious making ground was impossible.

Hi mate, I didn't know you had put one up until I just read back. I was referring to the bets made with the Hills offer really in that it might help to firm up those bets if they were not placed in bulk using a market that is at its weakest when we are making the selections. Betting something at a big price before the day of the race and finding the conditions might not suit on race day is part n parcel of trying to beat the market but just as an example I liked Dance n Dance in yesterday's race earlier in the week but hadn't bet it as I wanted to see how the track/ground ran. Given we 100% know how that is going to be ridden from behind to get there late I couldn't have it on my mind come race time when nothing has come from behind but if I had put it up in the week at 14/1 and it was 8/1 on Saturday morning then it's a good bet that gets unlucky with the conditions. But Betting at 9-10am on races we could have more info on at 14.30 puts us at a disadvantage we can overcome.

Cheers

[redarmi]

My first response was to post and say that the WH offer was fine yesterday and, to a degree, I still think it was.  Ultimately the EV that you get from the bet only has to overcome the overround you are betting against for the offer to have value and when it is close to the Betfair price then it invariably does.  Probably the more interesting question is the one that Tighty posed about whether the Betfair market is less efficient in these kind of events.  It may be but it is still the culmination of the combined opinion of all of the best betting and racing minds in the world effectively and I would generally take that opinion over that of a few of the bookies PR guys saying on one hand on Twitter that they are happy to take on the favourites whilst in the other hand they are writing out account closure letters to anyone with a clue that had the audacity to bet on horses they "wanted to get" because it was bigger than on Betfair.  Of course the Betfair market is at its best when it is most liquid so I definitely agree that we could place these later.  That probably isn't practical for Fred but, really, the point of Fred is as an educational tool to Blondes so for anyone seeking to do these bets then they are almost always best done closer to the event when all of the information has been discounted although anytime the BF market is relatively liquid and the Hills price is close is pretty much fine I think.

[tikay]

Afternoon Mr T.

The bottom 2 sides clash in the Aviva premiership today when Newcastle host Worcester. This is a game Worcester have to win to have a chance of staying up. They have started to improve massively since January and I think they will win this in a dour match. A key factor may well be that Newcastle are missing their captain, as well as their usual scrum half.

Suggest £20 Worcester @ 9/5 with paddy power.

By the way Mr T,we can get a whopping 1/8 on " no drop goal " in the Huddersfield v Warrington rugby league match. Anyone want to propose it?

Afternoon Mr H, & thank you.

I've been up the allotment, only got  back @ 13.58, & so nearly missed it. I took £20 @ 2.92 with Betfair Exchange, so not too bad.

Good luck us.

1/8 "No Drop Goal"? Nah, no fun in that, eh?

[tikay]

Posh lead 1-0.

Not Swanson, (yet...) but that'll do.

[Tal]

Paulinho misses today's top of the table clash at Anfield with conjunctivitis.

[tikay]

Paulinho misses today's top of the table clash at Anfield with conjunctivitis.

No Paulinho eye see, as one might say. It'll be a sight for sore eyes.

[tikay]

Worcester lead Newcastle early doors, 6-3.

[BigAdz]

Paulinho misses today's top of the table clash at Anfield with conjunctivitis.

Did it take them all season to diagnose it?

[Chompy]

How are Poshies even in the game let aloine 2-0 up? Absolute comedy.

[tikay]

How are Poshies even in the game let aloine 2-0 up? Absolute comedy.

With £20 @ 11/1,(?) I don't mind an ugly win. Now just hold, please.

Swanson scored, too, booooooom!

[Doobs]

How are Poshies even in the game let aloine 2-0 up? Absolute comedy.

We need you to save us all.  Has been desperate on and off thread since before Cheltenham.  When does Big Brother start ffs?