Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

Great write up tighty seems highly logical to me. Any stats on the amount of pens in open play in wc games? Ie how many pens were taken in the last 6 wc's?

[tikay]

Neymar 14/1 e/w (1/4 1,2,3,4) Coral

Mario Balotelli 33/1 e/w (1/4 1,2,3,4) Coral (40-1 win only BWin)

Edin Dzeko 100-1 e/w (1/4 1,2,3,4) Coral



How much would you recommend for Fred, please?

I'd like knowledgeable people to tell me the logic makes sense first. others might have stronger opinions on better choices

assuming it makes a modicum of sense though, and accepting its a market with plenty of viable runners and a fair amount of luck involved, something like £20 e/w on each

Doubt those prices will last, so we have plunged, never even got Restricted. All with Choral.



Neymar14/1Top Goalscorer - 13/07/2014


Each Way

Stake £40.00

Estimated Return:£390.00



Single


Mario Balotelli33/1Top Goalscorer - 13/07/2014

Each Way

Stake £40.00

Estimated Return:£865.00



Single


Edin Dzeko100/1Top Goalscorer - 13/07/2014

Each Way

Stake £40.00

Estimated Return:£2540.00

3 BETS PLACED

[KitKeeper]

Fantastic analysis.

RE: The Balotelli bet... Is the general consensus that Italy are qualifying from the group and the other place is between England and Uruguay?

I was under the impression that Italy are very beatable and Uruguay on their home continent should pose a tricky test... Hence why I've got something on both Suarez and Cavani in the top GS stakes.

[TightEnd]

Great write up tighty seems highly logical to me. Any stats on the amount of pens in open play in wc games? Ie how many pens were taken in the last 6 wc's?

i couldn't find a crib sheet, so began to go back through the record books, then thought that life was too short when i got back to 2006

in 2010 there were only 2 pens in the 90 minutes of games from the last sixteen onwards (16 games)

group A 2 in 6 games

group B 1 in 6 games

group C 0 in 6 games

group D 2 in 6 games

group E 1 in 6 games

group F 1 in 6 games

group G 0 in 6 games

group H 0 in 6 games

total 7 in 54 games


which was lower than i thought, and not too much different group to knockout at about a 13% chance of a pen per game

[TightEnd]

Fantastic analysis.

RE: The Balotelli bet... Is the general consensus that Italy are qualifying from the group and the other place is between England and Uruguay?

I was under the impression that Italy are very beatable and Uruguay on their home continent should pose a tricky test... Hence why I've got something on both Suarez and Cavani in the top GS stakes.

your view is as good as anyone else's

Italy are group favourites http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/group-d/winner and the market assumes that England will miss out

uruguay assumed to be vulnerable (centre back age) at the back

england who knows

costa rica games should produce goals for the group

obviously any bet on balotelli/suarez etc needs them out of the group.....

[horseplayer]

A few stats



1966 onwards there has only been one outright winner of the award whose side did not reach the semi-final - Gary Lineker in 1986. 

Thanks to the third-place play-off, getting to the semi-finals means seven games rather than the five played by a team knocked out in the quarter-final.

It's true that in 1994, the Golden Boot was shared between Hristo Stoichkov (a semi-finalist) and Oleg Salenko , and that hints at the other major factor that can propel a player to be top-scorer: being involved in a drubbing, allowing him to rack up a few cheap goals. Salenko banged in five against Cameroon (remarkably, the six goals he scored in the group stage in the USA were the only goals he scored in international football), but he is an exception.

There have only been four World Cup hat-tricks since Salenko's haul: Gabriel Batistuta for Argentina against Jamaica in 1998, Miroslav Klose for Germany against Saudi Arabia in 2002, Pauleta for Portugal against Poland in 2002 and Gonzalo Higuain for Argentina against South Korea in 2010. None of them won the Golden Boot: gluts help, but consistency of scoring appears more significant.

Most of the above nicked from the excellent Jonathan Wilson had his betfair column

The players i like have mostly been mentioned Cavani, Higuain and Benzema my three fwiw

Will also be looking for a match bet if there is one on Higuain v Aguero

[KitKeeper]

Indeed... I've got a feeling England will be more than competitive with the squad they have put out.

Looking at some bigger odds, I noticed Mario Mandzukic priced up at a huge 200/1 by Paddy Power...

Croatia have a tough path, but with each-way for top 4 that is very big for a striker of his quality...

Scoring 3 goals in the group stage is certainly not beyond him with Cameroon and Mexico in that mix.

[TightEnd]

Indeed... I've got a feeling England will be more than competitive with the squad they have put out.

Looking at some bigger odds, I noticed Mario Mandzukic priced up at a huge 200/1 by Paddy Power...

Croatia have a tough path, but with each-way for top 4 that is very big for a striker of his quality...

Scoring 3 goals in the group stage is certainly not beyond him with Cameroon and Mexico in that mix.

Would you like that placed as a first bet on the thread?

PP will allow us enormous amounts on, reckon it may be worth our while.... 

[millidonk]

Lovely write up Tighty. Appreciate the tip of that hat.

Note on Mandzukic; he will miss the first game due to disciplinary. Although the first game is against Brazil so unlikely to score anyway. Croatia also struggled to score in qualifying and I think will struggle to get out of the group with Mexico taking up the spot behind Brazil. You never know though. Could bag a few vs Cameroon.

Don't forget to share untip worthy thoughts in the WC thread.

[KitKeeper]

Note on Mandzukic; he will miss the first game due to disciplinary. Although the first game is against Brazil so unlikely to score anyway. Croatia also struggled to score in qualifying and I think will struggle to get out of the group with Mexico taking up the spot behind Brazil. You never know though. Could bag a few vs Cameroon.

Just saw that myself when I went to investigate.

I think what perked my interest is that I remember him being one of the joint top scorers in Euro 12 and thought he could just be a man for these occasions.

Missing one game in a short tournament is huge, though. 

[horseplayer]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/cricket/article-2632108/Brendon-McCullum-approached-cricket-hero-fix-matches.html

no offers on who player x is

might as well name him!

[TightEnd]

http://www.bedfordshire-news.co.uk/Sport/Luton-Town-FC/Football-Former-boss-Richard-Money-would-place-big-bet-on-consecutive-Luton-Town-promotions-20140519122328.htm

“I’m not a big betting man but I’d have a big bet on Luton finishing in the top three next season. For us, it’s about making sure we comfortably remain a Football League club and let’s see what happens after that.”

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-2/next-season-winner#

Chorals should be firmly punished for a lazy 12-1

[tikay]

http://www.bedfordshire-news.co.uk/Sport/Luton-Town-FC/Football-Former-boss-Richard-Money-would-place-big-bet-on-consecutive-Luton-Town-promotions-20140519122328.htm

“I’m not a big betting man but I’d have a big bet on Luton finishing in the top three next season. For us, it’s about making sure we comfortably remain a Football League club and let’s see what happens after that.”

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-2/next-season-winner#

Chorals should be firmly punished for a lazy 12-1

Think they've removed that Market, Rich.

[horseplayer]

http://www.bedfordshire-news.co.uk/Sport/Luton-Town-FC/Football-Former-boss-Richard-Money-would-place-big-bet-on-consecutive-Luton-Town-promotions-20140519122328.htm

“I’m not a big betting man but I’d have a big bet on Luton finishing in the top three next season. For us, it’s about making sure we comfortably remain a Football League club and let’s see what happens after that.”

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-2/next-season-winner#

Chorals should be firmly punished for a lazy 12-1

Think they've removed that Market, Rich.

it was never there

was a rogue price from oddschecker

[Chompy]

Yuh, that 12-1 with Choral has been there for at least a week but not available anywhere on their webshite.

Still think 7-1 is too big. 4-1 for me come the start of the season. League is horribly weak and a load of garbage came down from the one above.

I'll also be looking at Notts County on the handicap and for top half for L1 when the prices come out.