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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13526861 times)
DungBeetle
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« Reply #89205 on: October 20, 2014, 04:57:38 PM »

Rowett must be a big runner for the Birmingham job?  Only guesswork of course, but ticks all the boxes in terms of Blues history, good record at Burton + won't cost too much and happy to work with youngsters.  Also an appointment that is at least vaguely exciting for the supporters given he has that up and coming reputation.
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« Reply #89206 on: October 20, 2014, 07:28:46 PM »

Rowett must be a big runner for the Birmingham job?  Only guesswork of course, but ticks all the boxes in terms of Blues history, good record at Burton + won't cost too much and happy to work with youngsters.  Also an appointment that is at least vaguely exciting for the supporters given he has that up and coming reputation.

Birmingham fan here. I don't think there is any particular strong connection between Rowett and the supporters. He had a couple of seasons, was solid at right back. Certainly did a good job, but nothing to set the pulse racing. That being said I think he is the profile of someone we should be going for, young manager on the way up rather than someone who has failed at this level before. He is also local.

I'm not actually sure how attractive the job is. Certainly there is basically no money right now until if/when there is a takeover. And the criminal trial of our owner is ongoing.

My instinct is that we would go for someone who is unattached to avoid paying compo. I also don't see any senior players or coaches already at St Andrews who would make the step up. And I don't see Hughton coming back, it would seem like too much of a failure, plus we are in a way worse position than when he left.

Mike Phelan the favourite. I wonder why? Will watch the market with interest. I have no strong opinion right now on who it would be.
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Waz1892
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« Reply #89207 on: October 20, 2014, 07:35:45 PM »

 Click to see full-size image.



If you can work this one out you get a gold star

banks finally getting arrested?
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Carpe Diem
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« Reply #89208 on: October 20, 2014, 07:41:12 PM »

Brian Harvey from east 17 protesting at downing street. Not sure why its on this thread but that's who it is
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« Reply #89209 on: October 20, 2014, 07:44:05 PM »

Rowett must be a big runner for the Birmingham job?  Only guesswork of course, but ticks all the boxes in terms of Blues history, good record at Burton + won't cost too much and happy to work with youngsters.  Also an appointment that is at least vaguely exciting for the supporters given he has that up and coming reputation.

Birmingham fan here. I don't think there is any particular strong connection between Rowett and the supporters. He had a couple of seasons, was solid at right back. Certainly did a good job, but nothing to set the pulse racing. That being said I think he is the profile of someone we should be going for, young manager on the way up rather than someone who has failed at this level before. He is also local.

I'm not actually sure how attractive the job is. Certainly there is basically no money right now until if/when there is a takeover. And the criminal trial of our owner is ongoing.

My instinct is that we would go for someone who is unattached to avoid paying compo. I also don't see any senior players or coaches already at St Andrews who would make the step up. And I don't see Hughton coming back, it would seem like too much of a failure, plus we are in a way worse position than when he left.

Mike Phelan the favourite. I wonder why? Will watch the market with interest. I have no strong opinion right now on who it would be.

Posh fans wouldn't mind Barry Fry going back if he's needed?
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« Reply #89210 on: October 20, 2014, 07:58:27 PM »

Brian Harvey from east 17 protesting at downing street. Not sure why its on this thread but that's who it is

I thought that, then realised thts would have nothing to do with sport. So then I thought maybe it's an ex-boxer that gets arrested as it looks like the other policeman has his stuff.
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« Reply #89211 on: October 20, 2014, 09:17:23 PM »

Everything is going to be alright

Alright
Alright
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« Reply #89212 on: October 20, 2014, 09:54:49 PM »

David Goffin has won his 1st round match in straight sets 6 & 3.
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« Reply #89213 on: October 20, 2014, 10:58:53 PM »

Logged on to give my thoughts on the neffle (got to milk this cow before anyone mentions the expression "short term variance"). Fleeting visit, I'm afraid.

The JJ Watt show is a fun thought, but I suspect we won't find much value there, even if Clowney returns on the other side for a bit. The tackles Watt will be facing are both terrible, so Big Ben is going to get hit tonight. Boring, that, though.

I think the bookie we can't mention has mispriced a market on second half point supremacy, where the Texans and the Steelers have very different records:

Team   1st half   2nd half
Steelers   +16        -31
Texans   -8          +23

Green bookie has a line of Texans -1 at 5/4.

Fred can't do that, though, so let's move on.

Two markets stand out for me, so I welcome opinion, both on a theme. The weakness for both sides is the secondary. Both sides are joint worst in the NFL for allowing the most passes of over 20 yards (10 each). Bet Each Day says the longest touchdown today will be 40.5 yards and lets us decide higher or lower. The Steelers are terrible in the red zone and the Texans are surprisingly strong defending in that area. If the Steelers go ahead, Fitzpatrick will need to get chucking the egg and that allows deeper plays to open up. I really like the overs.

The Texans have been rubbish against their opponents' top wide receiver (99.7 yards per game), but have been top in the NFL against the second best wide receiver (41.7 yards per game). Markus Wheaton's receiving yard line is 52.5 with the bookie we can't mention and 50.5 with normal ones. He's only got there once since week one. Looks like a good spot for an under to me.

Thoughts?

Good luck, Fred, one and all.
« Last Edit: October 20, 2014, 11:24:45 PM by Tal » Logged

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« Reply #89214 on: October 21, 2014, 06:53:15 AM »

Logged on to give my thoughts on the neffle (got to milk this cow before anyone mentions the expression "short term variance"). Fleeting visit, I'm afraid.

The JJ Watt show is a fun thought, but I suspect we won't find much value there, even if Clowney returns on the other side for a bit. The tackles Watt will be facing are both terrible, so Big Ben is going to get hit tonight. Boring, that, though.

I think the bookie we can't mention has mispriced a market on second half point supremacy, where the Texans and the Steelers have very different records:

Team   1st half   2nd half
Steelers   +16        -31
Texans   -8          +23

Green bookie has a line of Texans -1 at 5/4.

Fred can't do that, though, so let's move on.

Two markets stand out for me, so I welcome opinion, both on a theme. The weakness for both sides is the secondary. Both sides are joint worst in the NFL for allowing the most passes of over 20 yards (10 each). Bet Each Day says the longest touchdown today will be 40.5 yards and lets us decide higher or lower. The Steelers are terrible in the red zone and the Texans are surprisingly strong defending in that area. If the Steelers go ahead, Fitzpatrick will need to get chucking the egg and that allows deeper plays to open up. I really like the overs.

The Texans have been rubbish against their opponents' top wide receiver (99.7 yards per game), but have been top in the NFL against the second best wide receiver (41.7 yards per game). Markus Wheaton's receiving yard line is 52.5 with the bookie we can't mention and 50.5 with normal ones. He's only got there once since week one. Looks like a good spot for an under to me.

Thoughts?

Good luck, Fred, one and all.

Texans outscored Steelers in the second half 10-6  Smiley

Markus Wheaton total yards: 0 Cheesy

Longest touchdown: 35 yards. Sad


Six yards off a hat trick!
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« Reply #89215 on: October 21, 2014, 08:08:53 AM »

guru!

shame i forgot to check fred for once

well done
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sonour
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« Reply #89216 on: October 21, 2014, 08:33:51 AM »

Logged on to give my thoughts on the neffle (got to milk this cow before anyone mentions the expression "short term variance"). Fleeting visit, I'm afraid.

The JJ Watt show is a fun thought, but I suspect we won't find much value there, even if Clowney returns on the other side for a bit. The tackles Watt will be facing are both terrible, so Big Ben is going to get hit tonight. Boring, that, though.

I think the bookie we can't mention has mispriced a market on second half point supremacy, where the Texans and the Steelers have very different records:

Team   1st half   2nd half
Steelers   +16        -31
Texans   -8          +23

Green bookie has a line of Texans -1 at 5/4.

Fred can't do that, though, so let's move on.

Two markets stand out for me, so I welcome opinion, both on a theme. The weakness for both sides is the secondary. Both sides are joint worst in the NFL for allowing the most passes of over 20 yards (10 each). Bet Each Day says the longest touchdown today will be 40.5 yards and lets us decide higher or lower. The Steelers are terrible in the red zone and the Texans are surprisingly strong defending in that area. If the Steelers go ahead, Fitzpatrick will need to get chucking the egg and that allows deeper plays to open up. I really like the overs.

The Texans have been rubbish against their opponents' top wide receiver (99.7 yards per game), but have been top in the NFL against the second best wide receiver (41.7 yards per game). Markus Wheaton's receiving yard line is 52.5 with the bookie we can't mention and 50.5 with normal ones. He's only got there once since week one. Looks like a good spot for an under to me.

Thoughts?

Good luck, Fred, one and all.

Texans outscored Steelers in the second half 10-6  Smiley

Markus Wheaton total yards: 0 Cheesy

Longest touchdown: 35 yards. Sad


Six yards off a hat trick!

Thank you Tal.

Unders come up again !
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« Reply #89217 on: October 21, 2014, 10:10:16 AM »

Daily Report

Profit on Month £131.06

Outstanding Bets £4139.56

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=30


The game started so well for our bet, Roethlisberger under 265.5 passing yards. With 3 minutes of the first half to go the Texans led the Steelers 13-0 and the Steelers offense was stuck in first gear, under pressure from the Houston defensive line and unable to get anything going

Roethlisberger had 45 yards



Helped by two turnovers and a big reception, the Steelers then became the first team in 12 years to score 24 points in the last 90 seconds of a half. They led 24-13 at the half

note the wide reciever Antonio Brown threw for a touchdown. little was i to know how crucial that would be...



Roethlisberger had 110 yards

 Click to see full-size image.




In the second half Pittsburgh began to click and they were 27-16 up, driving with under 5 minutes to go

With 3.39 left, they had the ball on the Houston 30 yard line.

Roethlisberger already had 260 yards.



They ran for a yard on first down

They attempted a throw into the end zone on second down, incomplete

They threw a short pass on third down

All the while the Texans were using time outs to stop the clock, to have time on the clock for when they got the ball back, needinjg to score twice

That third down pass went for...



5 yards

Pittsburgh kicked a field goal to go 30-16 up. Houston on the spread looked screwed. Points unders were screwed.

Roethlisberger had 265 yards. We were about to be screwed

Houston got the ball back and immediately drove down the field. We needed them to take enough time off the clock that Pittsburgh got the ball back with under 2 minutes left. They could then kneel down and run the clock out without attempting another pass

They scored to go 30-23 down, with 90 seconds to go

They attempted an onside kick to win the ball back. They kicked, the ball bobbled and there was an almighty scramble

If Pittsburgh got the ball, game over. Kneel three times

If Houston got the ball, a chance to score and take it to overtime and our bet sunk in overtime

On the Pittsburgh hands team was Darius Heyward-Bey. Who? A player drafted by the Raiders, famously high, with hands of stone. What on earth was he doing on the onside kick team? The onside kick went straight at him. He fumbled it and chaos followed

The referees began to seperate players



Eventually, the ball was visible, in the arms of a Pittsburgh player

Roethlisberger trotted onto the field, had the ball snapped three times with the clock running, knelt each time and Pittsburgh won 30-23

He finished with 265 yards and we had a £25 winner, by half a yard. A very lucky fluke result conditiioned by game flow suiting unders



--

Pittsburgh went to 4-3 on the season, a game behind the AFC North leading Ravens. I truth this looks a team in transition (for the third year) and not the best ante-post conference and superbowl bet, but a win is a win



Elsewhere last night relegation bet WBA, helped by the excellent Berahino, gained a 2-2 at home to Man U

 Click to see full-size image.


Feeding yesterday's Lord Ashcroft poll into Electoral Calculus LAB would secure working majority of 28 with 31% of vote



of course seat numbers are not decided by national share of the vote, its 650 local battles with incumbency and tactical voting to think of, but the figures remain supportive for our LDbets

Incidentally, Ladbrokes offer 6-1 (only) the Greens will out-poll the Lib Dems at the General election


Tonight, this starts

 Click to see full-size image.



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« Reply #89218 on: October 21, 2014, 10:16:10 AM »

http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2014/oct/21/india-bcci-suspend-all-tours-west-indies-thank-sri-lanka?CMP=tw
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« Reply #89219 on: October 21, 2014, 10:27:51 AM »

I liked this pic for some reason

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