Tips for Tikay

Mr William Ill seems to have decided he can't afford to take Fred on two weeks in a row on the Top of the Strictly Leaderboard market. Shame.

I mentioned the other day that Blackpool's Tower Ballroom is a different environment to Elstree and the bigger, springier floor, with the larger crowd will favour some and definitely not others. First things first, we need a reason not to suppose the top three girls aren't going to crush.

Pixie was top last week, you will recall. Her Paso is going to be flamboyant and an audience vote winner, no question. But it doesn't look very powerful to me. I'm also convinced the judges are making a concerted effort to spread the points around a bit this year, so unless she absolutely destroys the field, I think the paddlewavers will remember they already gave 39 to Susanna Reid's Paso at Blackpool last year and there might be a thought of scoring against that, as much as anything. I don't think she suits this dance. She's more a fun type than a passionate, intense type.

Frankie's partner was the one who helped Susanna to that 39 last year. He is probably the best all round dancer of the professionals and that's great. But...I think there's a problem: he has a tendency to make the routines too complicated. There are no difficulty marks in dancing as such: if you do a basic, bronze level waltz perfectly, you can get four tens. Obviously, this is tv and they'll find something in favour of making sure a more complicated routine gets rewarded, but the basic premise is the same. Frankie has struggled each week to get the routine in her head and that has showed on occasion. This looks like one of those weeks, where she would have benefited from a couple of more basic pieces in the choreography. Kevin won't do that and I've no idea why. I'd definitely want to oppose 7/2.

Caroline is the other one at the top of the market. She's jiving and her training footage from Thursday (the last full day of training as Friday is rehearsals) had her slipping ever so slightly on the floor when putting her feet down. This is a sign she isn't pushing through the floor, which is going to be highlighted heavily in a bouncy Blackpool. Her hip action will be the main issue and she might lose a little timing. Not for me.

The boys, please. Two stand out.

Jake has had a few difficult weeks, but I'm very much of the view it's because he's not comfortable with the intimacy and those last few dances have made him uneasy and hesitant. This week, he is back to ballroom and will look like a different beast. His footwork is the best in the competition, but he has had issues with his top line in his previous two ballroom dances (waltz and quickstep - I'm not including the tango, because the hold is different). He's a lock for 32+. He has been dancing in tails and dress shoes all week, which could make him the one most likely to get back in the game and chase down the leaders. 9/2 feels a little generous.

The banzai is somewhere else. I mentioned earlier that we want someone who is going to cover the floor. We also have the first Argentine Tango of the series tonight. It's going to be a surprisingly good number. Simon has got better week on week and his training footage indicates he's done a huge amount of work on a very complicated piece of choreography, thanks to Kristina, who I regard as being one of the better Argentine Tango choreographers in the competition. Reports are the routine covers the floor, which is an essential element of a winning dance tonight. Can he get tens? Probably not, but Joe Choral offers us an each way shot for a third of the price and at 14/1, taking top two for 14/3 seems like a worthwhile gamble. 36 will be unlucky not to get second. I get that it's a nine runner race and only paying top two, but unlike most horse races, there are only six who can realistically finish top.

We are swimming against the tide with these bets, but I'm going to suggest:

£20 at 9/2 on Jake Wood to be the Highest Scorer tonight.

And £10 each way on Simon Webbe.