Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

One thing i bookmarked last week was as follows

http://www.pinnaclesports.com/en/betting-articles/sport/do-christmas-fixtures-favour-the-bigger-teams

the thought being that the teams have to play two games in three days this week, then turn round and do the same next week

the bigger teams have more competitive squad depth, so have an inbuilt advantage over the bottom half teams when turning around playing sunday after the firday, as they do on the 28th this year

"Top sides have played less than 30 festive matches split by just one day of full rest over the last decade of the EPL. Therefore when considering this data, bettors shouldn’t ignore the importance of chance or the strength of schedule.

The implied odds suggest that 17 of 26 such matches played over the last decade would have been won by the top side against weaker opposition. In reality 22 matches were won, an impressive 84.6% of games. "

so, for example, this might play to the Liverpool bet..if they get 7 points of 9 over xmas playing squads with weaker depth, they shorten for top 4 perhaps...

it also might tell you to do ice-cream multiples on the big teams on sunday 28th...


--

this got me to thinking also for FA Cup weekend, which is two days after the Xmas period. got to expect a lot of premier league reserve teams out

my view has been that if you aren't going for top 6 and aren't in danger of relegation, you should try hard to win the FA Cup

however there are comparatively few teams you can say that about. One analyst looked yesterday and said in his opinion that only 3 teams have a less than 5% chance of not being in top 6 or bottom 3 : they were newcastle/everton/stoke

so if we leave those 3 out, then we can look for upsets in the rest

leaving out all premier league ties


Tranmere V Swansea

Man City V Sheff Wed
   
West Brom V Gateshead

Dover V Crystal Palace

Sunderland V Leeds

Aston Villa V Blackpool

Southampton V Ipswich

Wimbledon V Liverpool

Yeovil V Man Utd

Chelsea V Watford


not much to go at there possibly, but i will be watching to see if teams are going to be resting a load of players. at first glance ipswich going to southampton, leeds going to sunderland went into my notebook

What is your take on the proposed Chompy Bankroll Buster?

It could be a great bet, of course, much like the Peterborough Top 6 one, which is turning into The Full Eso.

[TightEnd]

One thing i bookmarked last week was as follows

http://www.pinnaclesports.com/en/betting-articles/sport/do-christmas-fixtures-favour-the-bigger-teams

the thought being that the teams have to play two games in three days this week, then turn round and do the same next week

the bigger teams have more competitive squad depth, so have an inbuilt advantage over the bottom half teams when turning around playing sunday after the firday, as they do on the 28th this year

"Top sides have played less than 30 festive matches split by just one day of full rest over the last decade of the EPL. Therefore when considering this data, bettors shouldn’t ignore the importance of chance or the strength of schedule.

The implied odds suggest that 17 of 26 such matches played over the last decade would have been won by the top side against weaker opposition. In reality 22 matches were won, an impressive 84.6% of games. "

so, for example, this might play to the Liverpool bet..if they get 7 points of 9 over xmas playing squads with weaker depth, they shorten for top 4 perhaps...

it also might tell you to do ice-cream multiples on the big teams on sunday 28th...


--

this got me to thinking also for FA Cup weekend, which is two days after the Xmas period. got to expect a lot of premier league reserve teams out

my view has been that if you aren't going for top 6 and aren't in danger of relegation, you should try hard to win the FA Cup

however there are comparatively few teams you can say that about. One analyst looked yesterday and said in his opinion that only 3 teams have a less than 5% chance of not being in top 6 or bottom 3 : they were newcastle/everton/stoke

so if we leave those 3 out, then we can look for upsets in the rest

leaving out all premier league ties


Tranmere V Swansea

Man City V Sheff Wed
   
West Brom V Gateshead

Dover V Crystal Palace

Sunderland V Leeds

Aston Villa V Blackpool

Southampton V Ipswich

Wimbledon V Liverpool

Yeovil V Man Utd

Chelsea V Watford


not much to go at there possibly, but i will be watching to see if teams are going to be resting a load of players. at first glance ipswich going to southampton, leeds going to sunderland went into my notebook

What is your take on the proposed Chompy Bankroll Buster?

It could be a great bet, of course, much like the Peterborough Top 6 one, which is turning into The Full Eso.

nothing pro or against the bet itself

i struggled to see how we could trade it.

£300 at 9-1 wherever we can place it, fair enough

but as you know i have tried to reduce your working capital tied up in betting accounts (i wouldn't have done if we were active traders), so you don't have the betfair balance to properly hedge it

think the current betfair balance is £600, so if it went 6-1 by new years day after liverpool win three on the trot you are able to hedge a third of it maybe, tops?

i would vote for a straight bet (£50 maybe) on the grounds it might be value, something to follow etc much like we did with fulham etc 

[TightEnd]

following the success of the @boringmilner twitter account, thought james was a good sport for this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?list=UUkzCjdRMrW2vXLx8mvPVLdQ&feature=player_embedded&v=3vjrgtLLlzQ

[tikay]

One thing i bookmarked last week was as follows

http://www.pinnaclesports.com/en/betting-articles/sport/do-christmas-fixtures-favour-the-bigger-teams

the thought being that the teams have to play two games in three days this week, then turn round and do the same next week

the bigger teams have more competitive squad depth, so have an inbuilt advantage over the bottom half teams when turning around playing sunday after the firday, as they do on the 28th this year

"Top sides have played less than 30 festive matches split by just one day of full rest over the last decade of the EPL. Therefore when considering this data, bettors shouldn’t ignore the importance of chance or the strength of schedule.

The implied odds suggest that 17 of 26 such matches played over the last decade would have been won by the top side against weaker opposition. In reality 22 matches were won, an impressive 84.6% of games. "

so, for example, this might play to the Liverpool bet..if they get 7 points of 9 over xmas playing squads with weaker depth, they shorten for top 4 perhaps...

it also might tell you to do ice-cream multiples on the big teams on sunday 28th...


--

this got me to thinking also for FA Cup weekend, which is two days after the Xmas period. got to expect a lot of premier league reserve teams out

my view has been that if you aren't going for top 6 and aren't in danger of relegation, you should try hard to win the FA Cup

however there are comparatively few teams you can say that about. One analyst looked yesterday and said in his opinion that only 3 teams have a less than 5% chance of not being in top 6 or bottom 3 : they were newcastle/everton/stoke

so if we leave those 3 out, then we can look for upsets in the rest

leaving out all premier league ties


Tranmere V Swansea

Man City V Sheff Wed
   
West Brom V Gateshead

Dover V Crystal Palace

Sunderland V Leeds

Aston Villa V Blackpool

Southampton V Ipswich

Wimbledon V Liverpool

Yeovil V Man Utd

Chelsea V Watford


not much to go at there possibly, but i will be watching to see if teams are going to be resting a load of players. at first glance ipswich going to southampton, leeds going to sunderland went into my notebook

What is your take on the proposed Chompy Bankroll Buster?

It could be a great bet, of course, much like the Peterborough Top 6 one, which is turning into The Full Eso.

nothing pro or against the bet itself

i struggled to see how we could trade it.

£300 at 9-1 wherever we can place it, fair enough

but as you know i have tried to reduce your working capital tied up in betting accounts (i wouldn't have done if we were active traders), so you don't have the betfair balance to properly hedge it

think the current betfair balance is £600, so if it went 6-1 by new years day after liverpool win three on the trot you are able to hedge a third of it maybe, tops?

i would vote for a straight bet (£50 maybe) on the grounds it might be value, something to follow etc much like we did with fulham etc 

Thanks.

It depends really - if the WHOLE BASIS of the bet was to set up a risk-free trading situation, well that's a bit pricey for me, but of course there's nothing to stop others plunging in.

If, however, the trading situation was just an insurance, an afterthought, I'd not hesitate to do the bet. I'd suggest £100, in fact, IF we think the bet works as a standalone.

The Daily Reports rubs would be awesome, as Steve G, yesterday's hero, & his erratic striker-less team mates turn it on & off according to their mood, as they seem to. I say get rid of Rodgers & offer Arsene the job, that'd stop the fans moaning.

Anyway, if it works standaone stylee, lets have £100, well worth that for abusing Chompy alone. We could put him in the Eso-Marky Club. 

[tikay]

Well, £50 maybe.

[tikay]

Or £25....

[RickBFA]

I had a brief look at football on Friday yesterday.

Anyone got a view on Crystal Palace v Southampton?

I feel 11/4 for a Palace win looks a bit big. Warnock will have Palace in the faces of Southampton and try to stop them playing.

Palace could have had 2 or 3 goals against Man City at the weekend and were a bit unlucky.

We saw what happened to Southampton against Sheff Utd when a team gets at them.

Perhaps Ant or Tighty have a view?

[TightEnd]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-4-finish

8-1 best

only one outfit has stayed at 9-1

so as a standalone, Liverpool are knocking one of man u or arsenal or whoever out of a top 4 spot?

currently 7 points off 4th



over to chompy.......

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

You and Tighty are like these guys.

Fred just wouldn't work without either of you. Stop being an Xmas Grinch and carry on as you are, totting up the monthly profits and having fun. And as for Tighty not knowing how much his daily reports are dissected and appreciated by so many, well that is just ridiculous - they are the greatest !

[TightEnd]

I had a brief look at football on Friday yesterday.

Anyone got a view on Crystal Palace v Southampton?

I feel 11/4 for a Palace win looks a bit big. Warnock will have Palace in the faces of Southampton and try to stop them playing.

Palace could have had 2 or 3 goals against Man City at the weekend and were a bit unlucky.

We saw what happened to Southampton against Sheff Utd when a team gets at them.

Perhaps Ant or Tighty have a view?

no but i did see this yesterday. the match has started, and look at the queues to get on the earth bank...

sorry, carry on!

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

What a great photograph!

More of those, love them.

[horseplayer]

following the success of the @boringmilner twitter account, thought james was a good sport for this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?list=UUkzCjdRMrW2vXLx8mvPVLdQ&feature=player_embedded&v=3vjrgtLLlzQ

went to post this!

bit long but funny Milner seems the ideal player to have in any squad really. Much better player than is given credit for as well

[Bazzaboy]

What a silly thing to fall out over.  Hate to think this had cost you friendships, but surely it has made you friendships too?

Would be sad to see the thread go.  As well as the friendships, we must have all learned something however small, and sure most have learned loads, including me.   And love Tighty's daily reports even though I don't say it enough.  

Quite like the Liverpool bet too, they do seem a bit better now, though 5th seems inevitable.  Just don't like the trading route.   Think you are better starting at 8.4 or whatever you can get there if you intend training.

This

[hector62]

Tighty.

A while ago when England played cricket in New Zealand all the matches were drawn because of docile pitches, I think some were drop in ones. Do you know if that is likely to happen for this series against Sri Lanka?

[Tonji]

No doubt Tighty is the cornerstone of Fred.

To continue a builder's analogy....

Click to see full-size image.

Tikay's role is key.