Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Thanks.
Didn't see it in the Daily Report. Assume that Fred was on?

no, it was only available with paddy power iirc, so no way to get on

they would only lay me (personally) less than a tenner on a coin flip too, so it wasn't exactly the greatest stopwatch sweat in the world lol

[Tonji]

Click to see full-size image.

Impressive training run yesterday & Lara's price has shortened. Drawn bib #16. Vonn also looked comfortable on the hill, drawn bib #18. Gusty winds could come into play, but that's part of the game.

Watch out for the young Norwegian, Ragnhild Mowinckel. She has all the ability & with the confidence & no fear attitude of youth could be a major surprise.



Eurosport, 17.45 today Ski fans!

[TightEnd]

i wrote up the Six Nations ahead of the start of the competition this friday

http://www.bettingemporium.com/tips/index/44

happy to go with hector or others thoughts instead, but it would be nice to have some exposure if anyone sees anything

i wasn't particularly interested in 2/1 or below on Ireland or England. Ireland more likely winners for me but its priced in

Can't see Scotland winning it, but clearly much improved

France have three away games including Dublin/Twickenham

i like Wales, who have Ireland at home in what sets up to be the crucial game

Wales have already named their team for Friday. settled experienced line up

if they can get parity up front they will win games

Leigh Halfpenny (Toulon); Alex Cuthbert (Cardiff Blues), Jonathan Davies (ASM Clermont Auvergne), Jamie Roberts (Racing Metro), George North (Northampton Saints); Dan Biggar (Ospreys), Rhys Webb (Ospreys); Gethin Jenkins (Cardiff Blues), Richard Hibbard (Gloucester), Samson Lee (Scarlets), Jake Ball (Scarlets), Alun Wyn Jones (Ospreys), Dan Lydiate (Ospreys), Sam Warburton (Cardiff Blues, Capt), Taulupe Faletau (Newport Gwent Dragons).

some more reading for those interested

strength in depth http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/31104193

wales will be hard to beat http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/31098559


for those who don't mind a short one for a couple of months, no grand slam at is a great bet at 8/11, i make it no higher than twos on

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations/grand-slam

it will come down to points difference on the last weekend

[arbboy]

i wrote up the Six Nations ahead of the start of the competition this friday

http://www.bettingemporium.com/tips/index/44

happy to go with hector or others thoughts instead, but it would be nice to have some exposure if anyone sees anything

i wasn't particularly interested in 2/1 or below on Ireland or England. Ireland more likely winners for me but its priced in

Can't see Scotland winning it, but clearly much improved

France have three away games including Dublin/Twickenham

i like Wales, who have Ireland at home in what sets up to be the crucial game

Wales have already named their team for Friday. settled experienced line up

if they can get parity up front they will win games

Leigh Halfpenny (Toulon); Alex Cuthbert (Cardiff Blues), Jonathan Davies (ASM Clermont Auvergne), Jamie Roberts (Racing Metro), George North (Northampton Saints); Dan Biggar (Ospreys), Rhys Webb (Ospreys); Gethin Jenkins (Cardiff Blues), Richard Hibbard (Gloucester), Samson Lee (Scarlets), Jake Ball (Scarlets), Alun Wyn Jones (Ospreys), Dan Lydiate (Ospreys), Sam Warburton (Cardiff Blues, Capt), Taulupe Faletau (Newport Gwent Dragons).

some more reading for those interested

strength in depth http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/31104193

wales will be hard to beat http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/31098559


for those who don't mind a short one for a couple of months, no grand slam at is a great bet at 8/11, i make it no higher than twos on

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations/grand-slam

it will come down to points difference on the last weekend

  It looks like the type of price which could be wrong because most of the books have just copied the first book up so to speak.  It's that type of market.  For the 8/11 to be value there has to be some quite serious under pricing of the individual teams prices to win the GS tighty as the GS market is currently bet to 105% at best prices available.  For the GS to be a 1/2 shot another 13% has to be added onto best prices altogether to make the book balance.  Which teams are well underpriced for the slam iyo?

[Tal]

“I’m really looking forward to seizing this opportunity at a club with such a history and with such great potential, too."

Click to see full-size image.

He turned down Stoke for this move. Can you imagine how miserable he would have looked for THAT photo?

Mind you, I've heard there's a bias at Stoke and the wides aren't favoured.

[TightEnd]

there isn't a dominant team. ireland come closest, but have to go to cardiff where they have done well for many years admittedly

one of the things that i think has begun to mitigate against a team winning 5 on the trot is the player schedule. with domestic competitions, the european cup being played up to a fortnight ago, the french top 14 players played last weekend. a lot of the players were on the go all summer before that

so attritrion rate is high, team changes likely and difficult to string a lot of cohesion together

not much of an annual sample size to go at to prove the case on that but it feels right


recent grand slams are

2002     France[2]
2003     England[3]
2004     France[4]
2005     Wales[5]
2008     Wales[6]
2009     Ireland[7]
2010     France[8]
2012     Wales[9]

from wiki

this feels like 2013-2014 with 2 or 3 reasonably matched sides that might beat each other.

[arbboy]

“I’m really looking forward to seizing this opportunity at a club with such a history and with such great potential, too."

Click to see full-size image.

He turned down Stoke for this move. Can you imagine how miserable he would have looked for THAT photo?

Mind you, I've heard there's a bias at Stoke and the wides aren't favoured.

Says a lot about Stoke and Everton the fact he wasn't guaranteed first team football at Stoke but was at Everton.  He just looks like another version of a washed up J Pennant on his gradual slide into no man's land whilst earning £40k a week for a few years whilst doing it.

[arbboy]

there isn't a dominant team. ireland come closest, but have to go to cardiff where they have done well for many years admittedly

one of the things that i think has begun to mitigate against a team winning 5 on the trot is the player schedule. with domestic competitions, the european cup being played up to a fortnight ago, the french top 14 players played last weekend. a lot of the players were on the go all summer before that

so attritrion rate is high, team changes likely and difficult to string a lot of cohesion together

not much of an annual sample size to go at to prove the case on that but it feels right


recent grand slams are

2002     France[2]
2003     England[3]
2004     France[4]
2005     Wales[5]
2008     Wales[6]
2009     Ireland[7]
2010     France[8]
2012     Wales[9]

from wiki

this feels like 2013-2014 with 2 or 3 reasonably matched sides that might beat each other.

How many of those years were a team shorter than 6/4 to win the 6 nations pre event?   This year's event looks just as competitive as usual from the outright betting standpoint.  When was the last time a team was odds on for the 6 nations pre event? (ie makes the GS more likely than usual)

[TightEnd]

there isn't a dominant team. ireland come closest, but have to go to cardiff where they have done well for many years admittedly

one of the things that i think has begun to mitigate against a team winning 5 on the trot is the player schedule. with domestic competitions, the european cup being played up to a fortnight ago, the french top 14 players played last weekend. a lot of the players were on the go all summer before that

so attritrion rate is high, team changes likely and difficult to string a lot of cohesion together

not much of an annual sample size to go at to prove the case on that but it feels right


recent grand slams are

2002     France[2]
2003     England[3]
2004     France[4]
2005     Wales[5]
2008     Wales[6]
2009     Ireland[7]
2010     France[8]
2012     Wales[9]

from wiki

this feels like 2013-2014 with 2 or 3 reasonably matched sides that might beat each other.

How many of those years were a team shorter than 6/4 to win the 6 nations pre event?   This year's event looks just as competitive as usual from the outright betting standpoint.  When was the last time a team was odds on for the 6 nations pre event? (ie makes the GS more likely than usual)

i am guessing wales 2005-2008 at 6/4ish?

can't remember a really dominant (likely to be odds on) six nations ante post side since england early 00s/world cup winning side/martin johnson

[arbboy]

there isn't a dominant team. ireland come closest, but have to go to cardiff where they have done well for many years admittedly

one of the things that i think has begun to mitigate against a team winning 5 on the trot is the player schedule. with domestic competitions, the european cup being played up to a fortnight ago, the french top 14 players played last weekend. a lot of the players were on the go all summer before that

so attritrion rate is high, team changes likely and difficult to string a lot of cohesion together

not much of an annual sample size to go at to prove the case on that but it feels right


recent grand slams are

2002     France[2]
2003     England[3]
2004     France[4]
2005     Wales[5]
2008     Wales[6]
2009     Ireland[7]
2010     France[8]
2012     Wales[9]

from wiki

this feels like 2013-2014 with 2 or 3 reasonably matched sides that might beat each other.

How many of those years were a team shorter than 6/4 to win the 6 nations pre event?   This year's event looks just as competitive as usual from the outright betting standpoint.  When was the last time a team was odds on for the 6 nations pre event? (ie makes the GS more likely than usual)

i am guessing wales 2005-2008 at 6/4ish?

can't remember a really dominant (likely to be odds on) six nations ante post side since england early 00s/world cup winning side/martin johnson

Just think (even with the tiny sample size of history above) it's hard to really make a case for the 8/11 to be value imo.  All the negatives you put up highlighted above should be an advantage to the best team as they have bigger squad depth imo.  Thus making the grand slam slightly more likely to happen if anything.  Every team has the same scheduling issues (ie every team plays every week - obviously some teams have 3 road trips compared to 2 but that is already built into the price).

[Tal]

Arry resigns.

[arbboy]

Arry resigns.

Another 'no more managers to get sacked' bet goes south in early Feb when we got past the hard bit.  dodgy knees?  Really?  SWP gone in a bit hard in training on Harry in a five aside?  They only found out about his knee operation today?  Amazing how it comes after no decent signings yesterday.

[horseplayer]

What a pathetic human redknapp is

Unable to admit he has failed again and in a sulk because fenradez won't let him splash yet more money on players with no sell on value/he has agent links with

[arbboy]

comical to think he was fav for the England managers job in the past!

[TightEnd]

Next QPR manager betting:

 Sherwood - 1/3

L. Ferdinand - 5/1

Hoddle - 7/1

McClaren - 14/1

Hoddle is on the staff right?

who is caretaker?