Tips for Tikay

[Larry David]

Almost a disaster with the two horses going through the rails.

[tikay]

Almost a disaster with the two horses going through the rails.

The photographer chap got a great close up. Hope he is ok.

[Marky147]

Almost a disaster with the two horses going through the rails.

The photographer chap got a great close up. Hope he is ok.

Bloody French drivers...

[Tonibell]

Smudger covered up like he was expecting to get some more ride over him. He'll be in better shape than Monsieur Plouganou if Nina gets hold of him.

[exstream]

Davey Russell has won his last 5 races at the festival.

[doubleup]

free bet "hypothetical" question

The agreed method to get value from free bets is to find a longish price that is quite close to the best price.  But as we know these can sometimes be a bit difficult to find.

If you find a pretty big arb at a low price, whats the best way to take advantage?  Just take the guaranteed profit or gamble for a bit more equity?

egs free bet on at 3-1 and can be laid at 5/2

If you do back £10 at 3-1 and lay at 5/2, you get £5 if the selection wins and £10 if it loses.  If we assume that it wins 30% of the time that's 70% of £10 + 30% of £5 = £8.50 equity from the £10 bet.  However, we are guaranteed £5.

If we decide to lay for a stake of £12, we win nothing if it wins but £12 if it loses.  So only £8.40 equity with no guarantee

If we lay to a stake of £6, we win £15 if it wins and £6 if it loses.  That's  £8.70 equity with £6 guarantee.

Also obv you could just let the bet run which would on the face of it be £9 equity, but no guaranteed return.

(nb commission would be deducted from the exchange side but just discussing the general principle)

Anyone have thoughts Doobs?  Arbhoy?

[Larry David]

How much will you be happy with taking back?

[sonour]

free bet "hypothetical" question

The agreed method to get value from free bets is to find a longish price that is quite close to the best price.  But as we know these can sometimes be a bit difficult to find.

If you find a pretty big arb at a low price, whats the best way to take advantage?  Just take the guaranteed profit or gamble for a bit more equity?

egs free bet on at 3-1 and can be laid at 5/2

If you do back £10 at 3-1 and lay at 5/2, you get £5 if the selection wins and £10 if it loses.  If we assume that it wins 30% of the time that's 70% of £10 + 30% of £5 = £8.50 equity from the £10 bet.  However, we are guaranteed £5.

If we decide to lay for a stake of £12, we win nothing if it wins but £12 if it loses.  So only £8.40 equity with no guarantee
N
If we lay to a stake of £6, we win £15 if it wins and £6 if it loses.  That's  £8.70 equity with £6 guarantee.

Also obv you could just let the bet run which would on the face of it be £9 equity, but no guaranteed return.

(nb commission would be deducted from the exchange side but just discussing the general principle)

Anyone have thoughts Doobs?  Arbhoy?

Don't do the low price arb with the free bet. Do the arb with your own money and use the free bet at high odds.

[Larry David]

Have you already placed the main bet and now received the free bet?

[rfgqqabc]

free bet "hypothetical" question

The agreed method to get value from free bets is to find a longish price that is quite close to the best price.  But as we know these can sometimes be a bit difficult to find.

If you find a pretty big arb at a low price, whats the best way to take advantage?  Just take the guaranteed profit or gamble for a bit more equity?

egs free bet on at 3-1 and can be laid at 5/2

If you do back £10 at 3-1 and lay at 5/2, you get £5 if the selection wins and £10 if it loses.  If we assume that it wins 30% of the time that's 70% of £10 + 30% of £5 = £8.50 equity from the £10 bet.  However, we are guaranteed £5.

If we decide to lay for a stake of £12, we win nothing if it wins but £12 if it loses.  So only £8.40 equity with no guarantee
N
If we lay to a stake of £6, we win £15 if it wins and £6 if it loses.  That's  £8.70 equity with £6 guarantee.

Also obv you could just let the bet run which would on the face of it be £9 equity, but no guaranteed return.

(nb commission would be deducted from the exchange side but just discussing the general principle)

Anyone have thoughts Doobs?  Arbhoy?

Don't do the low price arb with the free bet. Do the arb with your own money and use the free bet at high odds.

This. And isn't it mostly bankroll dependent?

[DropTheHammer]

Anyone got a link for the last race or where I can watch it for free?

[DropTheHammer]

Anyone got a link for the last race or where I can watch it for free?

Don't worry, got it on Corals

[doubleup]

free bet "hypothetical" question

The agreed method to get value from free bets is to find a longish price that is quite close to the best price.  But as we know these can sometimes be a bit difficult to find.

If you find a pretty big arb at a low price, whats the best way to take advantage?  Just take the guaranteed profit or gamble for a bit more equity?

egs free bet on at 3-1 and can be laid at 5/2

If you do back £10 at 3-1 and lay at 5/2, you get £5 if the selection wins and £10 if it loses.  If we assume that it wins 30% of the time that's 70% of £10 + 30% of £5 = £8.50 equity from the £10 bet.  However, we are guaranteed £5.

If we decide to lay for a stake of £12, we win nothing if it wins but £12 if it loses.  So only £8.40 equity with no guarantee
N
If we lay to a stake of £6, we win £15 if it wins and £6 if it loses.  That's  £8.70 equity with £6 guarantee.

Also obv you could just let the bet run which would on the face of it be £9 equity, but no guaranteed return.

(nb commission would be deducted from the exchange side but just discussing the general principle)

Anyone have thoughts Doobs?  Arbhoy?

Don't do the low price arb with the free bet. Do the arb with your own money and use the free bet at high odds.

Fair point, but it can sometimes be difficult to find a good free bet at high odds before it expires.  

85%+ equity from the free bet is pretty good, tho not so good I suppose if you choose to deduct arb equity that you could've got with your own money.

yeah and rfgqqabc I was thinking how to you value guaranteed funds.  The whole point about arbing anything is that you are usually giving up a bit of equity for no risk money you can use.

[Larry David]

I had a free £100 last weekend, usually place these on the football markets, the markets they welcome you to place your hard earned on.

£100@ 5/2 (draw)  £250 potential returns -£100 free bet
Lay draw 3.5 exchange for £185  £70 potential return after commission  

The top one came up so £65 profit, £67.50 either way if you wanted to level off exactly.

As sonour says, higher odds the better, they want you to go for the 1-2 bet which plays right into their hands.

[Larry David]

Anyone got a link for the last race or where I can watch it for free?

have a 25p bet on 365