Tips for Tikay

[Marky147]

reve de sivola is a grade one winner at a great price

tough as old boots

does it need it softer, is that why its not favoured?


here is the market for that one

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/cheltenham/15:20/winner

Has won on good, but loves bottomless ground, so another night with no rain won't have done it any favours.

[Karabiner]

Did anyone hear John Inverdale's classic slip of the tongue live on radio 5 yesterday?

He was interviewing Lizzie Kelly and John Francome and tried to say "rose-tinted" or "rose-coloured" spectacles but instead came out with "rose-c*nted spectacles".

This was live on air too. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy.

[tikay]

Did anyone hear John Inverdale's classic slip of the tongue live on radio 5 yesterday?

He was interviewing Lizzie Kelly and John Francome and tried to say "rose-tinted" or "rose-coloured" spectacles but instead came out with "rose-c*nted spectacles".

This was live on air too. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy.

I saw it reported, yes. As you say, could not happen to a nicer guy. Sort of.

I had to drive to work midway through Cheltenham Day One, so tuned in to Radio 5 on the wireless, & promptly had to tune off, as Mr Inverdale was whittling away as per, in what someone else described yesterday, rather splendidly I thought, as mindless fuckwittery.

I know that national radio has to appeal to the masses, not just racing enthusiasts, but there's dumbing down, & there's John Inverdale.

Ugh.

[tikay]

If anyone is still up and loves a plot horse, Monetaire is interesting in the 5th race.  It has come over from France where it seems to have run in decent races, then had a sighter, afterwards started at 2/1 in the next and won fairly well there.

Now it appears at the bottom of a handicap at Cheltenham.  B365 are still going 7/1 and 5 places .  Can't see it there in the morning.

Thanks for this, & the other suggestions, Doobs.

As at 0630 this morning, BetEveryDay still go 7/1 Monetaire.

Tighty - to save you looking, Fred can get a Max of £7.14 on this. They'd allow us £7.14 win, or £7.14 EW, so if you think we should get on, may as well do it EW to get a bit more value.

Monetaire @  7/1
£14.29  EW  Single    12/03/2015 09:33:49    28.58    0.00

they laid double the earlier limit

They often do that, as the event draws closer, guess it's always worth checking.

[tikay]

Think he is throttling back on the bet sizes (but noit quantity) right now, as we seem to have been burning money this week. That's wrong, of course, completely so, but he's spending someone else's money, & I've had to make a few Deposits this week, so you can understand his thinking. 

i was proposing being light on bet sizes today because it looked so tough. I know not to reduce bet sizes in a bad run, or increase in a good run

rest assured, if there were six champion hurdles today with tuesday's shape (where we backed three and could/should have backed five) we'd be in, your debit card permitting

i will work through the thread now, if it isn't a tough day, we'll put some stuff on

Ahh, my bad, apologies.

I'm much relieved that you are not throttling back. Ish.

Good to see a profit yesterday though, down to simonnataur, Doobsy, & of course Gonzo's Quest. We needed those.

Dat 3 now, credit cards primed & ready for action.

[TightEnd]

Have to say, I'm very disappointed with the range of pre-season markets this year - was much better last season. Not sure why that is ..

Anyway, one more pre-season bet:

Marcus Ericsson - To Finish At Least 1 GP In Top 8 During The Season Betting Odds: Yes at 16/11 with 888 and Unibet. The Sauber didn't look horrendous in pre-season testing - they have definitely taken a step forward compared to last season, would be surprised if this doesn't happen at least once this year. It's even more likely at the start of the season with McLaren and Force India still to get up to pace. Suggest £20-£30.

As for Australian GP bets, found A LOT of value spots:

Bwin   - Australian GP - Podium Finish - Daniil Kvyat - 16/1 - £ 5.00 - Quick driver, now in a half decent car, 16/1 is just too high when Ricciardo is 7/2!
Stan James    - Australian GP - Points Finish - Max Verstappen - 3/1 - £ 10.00*** - Toro Rosso should be fighting for points this race, Verstappen looked strong in testing.
Bwin   - Australian GP - Top Six Finish - Daniil Kvyat - 2/1 - £ 10.00*** - Same as bet #1.
Stan James    - Australian GP - Practice One Winner - Valtteri Bottas - 18/1 - £ 5.00 - 18/1 is too high given that Mercedes may well not want to "show their hand" in FP1.
Bwin   - Australian GP - McLaren Total Finishers - 0 - 45/17 - £ 20.00*** - Extremely unreliable in pre-season testing, this price is mad.
Bwin   - Australian GP - Force India Total Finishers - 2 - 19/20 - £ 15.00 - Bullet proof. Should happen if Nico & Sergio avoid a crash.

I put *** next to the top three, just in case you didn't want to invest too much money. For the Stan James ones (I know TFT can't get on there), check oddschecker - sometimes there were equivalent prices available elsewhere.

Additionally, there is an interesting bet that I personally haven't placed - but if you have a big balance, you should get on it:

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/australian-grand-prix/mclaren-double-points-finish - NO at 1/4!! Low price, but still FAR too high. McLaren is off the pace and unreliable. This should be more like 1/10. Would suggest a lump here!

the usual issues with some of these

We do not have 888, Unibet or the ability to bet with Stan James

its just as well that Peter has advised me to use oddschecker

Click to see full-size image.

all the bwin ones are on

    3/12/2015 10:59 AM    Single bet    

    open GP Australia - Race specials (How many Force India cars will be classified in the final results?)
    2
    ?

   15.00    1.95       
   3/12/2015 10:58 AM    Single bet    

    open GP Australia - Race specials (How many McLaren cars will be classified in the final results?)
    No car
    ?

   20.00    3.65       
   3/12/2015 10:57 AM    Single bet    

    open GP Australia - Race (Top 6 bet)
    Daniil Kvyat (RUS/Red Bull)
    ?

   10.00    3.00       
   3/12/2015 10:57 AM    Single bet    

    open GP Australia - Race (Top 3 bet)
    Daniil Kvyat (RUS/Red Bull)
    ?

   5.00    17.00


i can get 15/8 on the Verstappen points finish which is close enough


F1 - Australian Grand Prix
Points Finish
   Verstappen, Max    15/8    
Total stake   £ 10.00
Estimated return   £ 28.75
Full stake   £ 10.00
Full estimated return   £ 28.75

and 18/1 elsewhere on Bottas.

Lewis is going to be too busy carousing with a pit board girl anyway, or crying over Nicole slowing him down by two seconds a lap. Possibly.

anyway, incredibly Coral sent this for review. the trader cogitated, digested, googled Bottas ansd thought "nah, not just been dumped by a pussycat doll" and allowed us the bet

Valterri Bottas18/1Practice 1 Winner - 15/03/2015
Stake £5.00
Estimated Return:£95.00
Total Stake: £5.00
Potential Return: £95.00



that leaves Ericcson unplaced, but as Sauber have 3 contracted drivers and only two seats, lets drop that one

and mclaren no at 1/4. also leaving that, not that it doesn't look too long but we are runnign short of cash

in fact, there is none left on bwin

[tikay]

firstly a quick run through yesterday where we won, drumroll, £9



I hope you included our Gonzo's Quest windfall?

[TightEnd]

Morning Mr T's.

Amid all the Cheltenham shenanigans it is easy to miss that there is a decent tennis tournament starting today in Indian Wells, California. The market at the top is the usual suspects, Djokovic around evs and Federer 3 to 1 ish and neither appeal as a bet. This tournament has dished up some surprises in the past so I am looking at a couple of longer priced shots.

My first suggestion is Thomas Berdych at 25-1, not a player I completely trust to win finals but he is a bit of a flat track bully and very capable of getting to the final. He has reached the semi final here in the past and he has showed some good form this season. He also didn't play in the Davis cup last weekend.

The other player I like is Gilles Simon at 200-1 generally but there is a betfair sportsbook at 250-1. He has already won a tournament this season and he is an excellent returner which I think is important here with the ball bouncing all over the place. Both players are in the bottom half of the draw which has a number of players that have caused Federer problems in the past.

Suggest £5 e/w on both of them.

 Indian Wells 2015 - Mens Tomas Berdych (EW) (Outright - Outright) Odds: 25/1 Stake: 10.00 Possible Return:  197.50

 Singles
Odds Stake
Mens Tournament

    250/1
    £1,885.00
    Gilles Simon
    Winner
    £5 EW

    Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000123

[TightEnd]

firstly a quick run through yesterday where we won, drumroll, £9



I hope you included our Gonzo's Quest windfall?

I did not.

[tikay]

........but we are running short of cash

in fact, there is none left on bwin


Tell me about it.....

Want me to deposit some, if so, how much?

Quite a useful Account, imo.

[Marky147]

Looking at the JLT market, I'm guessing Vautour must be working all over Valseur Lido...

[TightEnd]

........but we are running short of cash

in fact, there is none left on bwin


Tell me about it.....

Want me to deposit some, if so, how much?

Quite a useful Account, imo.

very useful account

not restricted, lots of markets others don't offer

don't deposit yet, lets see how the grand prix goes

there is a big forward book in the account too, such as Wiggins top rookie so if we can swerve bwin for a few days its should replenish itself

[TightEnd]

In my opinion the Lotae are under rated this season in the F1.  Not sure best way to get with them in fixed odds but reckon they are a cracking buy at 92 on spreads for constructors points.

Decent pace in testing, drivers are experienced and cars reliable.  They might be outdeveloped with their smaller budget, but their major funding issues seem behind them.  They have the Merc engine this year after a switch.

Thoughts on this and any fixed odds angle?  Agree with Peter that season wise there don't seem to be too many markets this year.

noted and awaiting instructions

the vibes with the merc engine are good, certainly

[tikay]

........but we are running short of cash

in fact, there is none left on bwin


Tell me about it.....

Want me to deposit some, if so, how much?

Quite a useful Account, imo.

very useful account

not restricted, lots of markets others don't offer

don't deposit yet, lets see how the grand prix goes

there is a big forward book in the account too, such as Wiggins top rookie so if we can swerve bwin for a few days its should replenish itself

Excellent news.

When does the Wiggins NBA bet settle?

[TightEnd]

........but we are running short of cash

in fact, there is none left on bwin


Tell me about it.....

Want me to deposit some, if so, how much?

Quite a useful Account, imo.

very useful account

not restricted, lots of markets others don't offer

don't deposit yet, lets see how the grand prix goes

there is a big forward book in the account too, such as Wiggins top rookie so if we can swerve bwin for a few days its should replenish itself

Excellent news.

When does the Wiggins NBA bet settle?

we are in the last month of the regular NBA season, but no time to report on it

? to check when the season awards are announced

if its like the NFL its the night before "final" which is mid june but if its end of regular season its mid april