Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

RCB maybe a bit of value in the IPL late game today? 6/5 v an admittedly strong chennai side? mitchell starc back for the hosts is big, and their home form is traditionally very strong. chennai have been reliant on openers getting off to flying starts (starc should be able to combat that) and miserly bowling (gayle, kohli and abdv should be able to combat that!)

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/indian-premier-league/bangalore-v-chennai/winner

aye aye aye deep breath

Betting RCB in the IPL has been a quick way to the poor house. when i checked a week ago (in an article by ed hawkins i think) backing RCB to level stakes in the 10 years of the IPL had produced the biggest loss of any IPL team...usually backed to short prices/favouritism because they are "popular" with all the names, but never perform consistently to win games they should, on paper, win

anyway you'll know this

you'll also know that the tournament requires chennai to make the final four...backed by the bcci's main sponsors and full of the big name indian players. thats the IPLfor you

anyway, i can back RCB and we can get 13/10

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/indian-premier-league/bangalore-v-chennai/winner

just double check though please. is there anything specifically in today's game/team line ups etc that would push me over the line?

Starc would be one

according to cricinfo starc is back. maybes hold off until team is confirmed? rcb on the road are a great lay, agreed, as always priced up on reputation. they'd still be favs against say rajastan away, despite their respective starts, which would be mad, but at home i have a feeling their record would be a fair bit better. chennai will defo make top 4, thats a standard, had a good start though so look booked for that anyway. my angle is starc v mccullum with new ball, and home advantage

no problem

if you are around post again when you see the teams please.

[nellberg]

RCB maybe a bit of value in the IPL late game today? 6/5 v an admittedly strong chennai side? mitchell starc back for the hosts is big, and their home form is traditionally very strong. chennai have been reliant on openers getting off to flying starts (starc should be able to combat that) and miserly bowling (gayle, kohli and abdv should be able to combat that!)

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/indian-premier-league/bangalore-v-chennai/winner

aye aye aye deep breath

Betting RCB in the IPL has been a quick way to the poor house. when i checked a week ago (in an article by ed hawkins i think) backing RCB to level stakes in the 10 years of the IPL had produced the biggest loss of any IPL team...usually backed to short prices/favouritism because they are "popular" with all the names, but never perform consistently to win games they should, on paper, win

anyway you'll know this

you'll also know that the tournament requires chennai to make the final four...backed by the bcci's main sponsors and full of the big name indian players. thats the IPLfor you

anyway, i can back RCB and we can get 13/10

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/indian-premier-league/bangalore-v-chennai/winner

just double check though please. is there anything specifically in today's game/team line ups etc that would push me over the line?

Starc would be one

according to cricinfo starc is back. maybes hold off until team is confirmed? rcb on the road are a great lay, agreed, as always priced up on reputation. they'd still be favs against say rajastan away, despite their respective starts, which would be mad, but at home i have a feeling their record would be a fair bit better. chennai will defo make top 4, thats a standard, had a good start though so look booked for that anyway. my angle is starc v mccullum with new ball, and home advantage

no problem

if you are around post again when you see the teams please.

heading out for a round of golf i'm afraid, just had to place it now and hope that cricinfo know the craic! narine punt 0-19 off 2 overs currently, sunrisers none down through 13 so it'll be a sweat from here, there'll be some shots played!

[Doobs]

Okay, deep breath..  Suggest £2.50, maybe £5 e/w tops on Starlight Banner @ 66/1 general 3.45 Catt.

The angle, such that it is, is that the sire's offspring are far superior on turf versus all weather (only 2 poor runs on the a/w to date, obv will need to improve dramatically for the surface and experience, but not impossible)
The sires offspring in gd to firm turf sprints have a record of 15% win and 45% place over an admittedly small sample of 20 runs.   

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/catterick/15:45/winner

66-1?

ok, we'll use a "one time" token for this!

 15:45 STARLIGHT BANNER (EW) (Horse Racing Outright - Race) Odds: 66/1 Stake: 10.00 Possible Return:  406.00

E/W is 1/5 1,2,3

For those who want a heroic punt, the last odds matched on betfair were 300, nothing matched on the place though 18 is available.

[arbboy]

My in laws that were are all Derby season ticket holders. one is in the local media and does commentary...has access to some behind the scenes chatter

they insist that McLaren is nailed on for Newcastle in the summer. common knowledge apparently

His wife stayed up in the family house in north yorkshire bought when he was appointed middlesborough manager

mclaren stays down most of the week, occasionally commutes to derby and wants to move to a job closer to home

since the players became aware of his impending depature i am told that performances tailed off

they absolutely insist they won't go up via the play-offs

All stacks up timing wise with the slump and Carver getting the gig at Newcastle til the end of the season. 

[tikay]

My in laws that were are all Derby season ticket holders. one is in the local media and does commentary...has access to some behind the scenes chatter

they insist that McLaren is nailed on for Newcastle in the summer. common knowledge apparently

His wife stayed up in the family house in north yorkshire bought when he was appointed middlesborough manager

mclaren stays down most of the week, occasionally commutes to derby and wants to move to a job closer to home

since the players became aware of his impending depature i am told that performances tailed off

they absolutely insist they won't go up via the play-offs

All stacks up timing wise with the slump and Carver getting the gig at Newcastle til the end of the season. 

Have they prepared the banners for him yet?

SackMclaren.com

[Chompy]

I've no strong opinion re: the let-down effect overall. Always take each case on its merits and, when it comes to Preston and MK this season, it's going to be a factor I think.

Preston were talking about chasing down Brizzle for the title a few weeks ago and half thought they were already up. Since then they've had some wobbles, while MK are always candidates for a good choke.

Chesterfield aren't that far behind any of their likely play-off rivals. Bet placed?

[Marky147]

My in laws that were are all Derby season ticket holders. one is in the local media and does commentary...has access to some behind the scenes chatter

they insist that McLaren is nailed on for Newcastle in the summer. common knowledge apparently

His wife stayed up in the family house in north yorkshire bought when he was appointed middlesborough manager

mclaren stays down most of the week, occasionally commutes to derby and wants to move to a job closer to home

since the players became aware of his impending depature i am told that performances tailed off

they absolutely insist they won't go up via the play-offs

All stacks up timing wise with the slump and Carver getting the gig at Newcastle til the end of the season. 

Have they prepared the banners for him yet?

SackMclaren.com

Wonder if he'll also be awarded a title similar to the one given to Pardiola, by 'The True Geordie'

'One of the most useless **** managers I have ever seen'

[TightEnd]

Back (Bet For)
Odds
Stake
Profit

    Chesterfield 6.4 £30.00 £162.00
    Ref: 49363416459 Matched: 14:06 22-Apr-15

and reinvesting the profits from this mornings bet for our absent golfer

Market    Selection    Bet placed    Odds
   
Fixtures 22 April / Bangalore v Chennai / Match Odds  Bangalore Back    22-Apr-15 14:04    2.28    17

[DungBeetle]

My in laws that were are all Derby season ticket holders. one is in the local media and does commentary...has access to some behind the scenes chatter

they insist that McLaren is nailed on for Newcastle in the summer. common knowledge apparently

His wife stayed up in the family house in north yorkshire bought when he was appointed middlesborough manager

mclaren stays down most of the week, occasionally commutes to derby and wants to move to a job closer to home

since the players became aware of his impending depature i am told that performances tailed off

they absolutely insist they won't go up via the play-offs

I'm of opposite view.  They'll get themselves up for the playoffs.  I wouldn't back them as favs but think they have a big chance and if they are 3rd favs I think they'd be a great bet.  I take Camels point about Norwich but would be very surprised if they are behind Watford or Boro in betting if that was line up.

[Ironside]

FYI

Thought this might be useful given recent discussion on here

59 scottish constituencies and the current favourites in each

Click to see full-size image.

this is where is becomes murky if we think SNP are only getting 41 seats then we should be backing the unders current line is around 49-51 seats

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-snp

so the bookies are expecting around 49 seats

http://electoralcalculus.co.uk/scotland.html is predicting 48 seats snp and 11 seats labour all other parties wiped out this taken from polls and not on bets taken

but with both the bookies and the polls they are expecting more than the 41 seats listed as favourites

ffs i have confused myself now

[TightEnd]

FYI

Thought this might be useful given recent discussion on here

59 scottish constituencies and the current favourites in each

Click to see full-size image.

this is where is becomes murky if we think SNP are only getting 41 seats then we should be backing the unders current line is around 49-51 seats

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-snp

so the bookies are expecting around 49 seats

http://electoralcalculus.co.uk/scotland.html is predicting 48 seats snp and 11 seats labour all other parties wiped out this taken from polls and not on bets taken

but with both the bookies and the polls they are expecting more than the 41 seats listed as favourites

ffs i have confused myself now

just a small point, electoral calculus takes polls and applies its modelling to them, it doesn't do the polling itself

we have snp >43.5. looks a good bet

in practice the assumption is that some of the constituencies on the rhs of the diagram above must go nationalist, but it was useful if someone wanted to take the time to see if there were any stale prices, snp as underdog where they shouldn't be etc etc

oddschecker lists every constituency

[arbboy]

I think we are all looking at this in a bit too simplistic manner.  Just because snp 'are in' for 41 seats because they are favs for 41 seats doesn't mean that is the expected mean average expected seats.  They could be 1.01 to win each of the 41 seats they are a fav to win and be a 11/10 dog to win 20 more seats they are not a fav to win in theory therefore close to winning 50+ seats in 'ev' terms.  I know they are not but if you get my point the modelling involved is a bit more complex than what we are currently using.

[Ironside]

FYI

Thought this might be useful given recent discussion on here

59 scottish constituencies and the current favourites in each

Click to see full-size image.

this is where is becomes murky if we think SNP are only getting 41 seats then we should be backing the unders current line is around 49-51 seats

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-snp

so the bookies are expecting around 49 seats

http://electoralcalculus.co.uk/scotland.html is predicting 48 seats snp and 11 seats labour all other parties wiped out this taken from polls and not on bets taken

but with both the bookies and the polls they are expecting more than the 41 seats listed as favourites

ffs i have confused myself now

just a small point, electoral calculus takes polls and applies its modelling to them, it doesn't do the polling itself

we have snp >43.5. looks a good bet

in practice the assumption is that some of the constituencies on the rhs of the diagram above must go nationalist, but it was useful if someone wanted to take the time to see if there were any stale prices, snp as underdog where they shouldn't be etc etc

oddschecker lists every constituency

yeah i saw they listed every constituency last night after offering my mum 10-1 for the tories to win our seat, i kinda felt guilty afer seeing the odds and gave her 20-1 today, the snp are 1.01 and 1.001 to win what is now a safe seat for them

[hector62]

Nadal won his 2nd round match, beating Almagro in straight sets     6 - 3      6 - 1

[nellberg]

Back (Bet For)
Odds
Stake
Profit

    Chesterfield 6.4 £30.00 £162.00
    Ref: 49363416459 Matched: 14:06 22-Apr-15

and reinvesting the profits from this mornings bet for our absent golfer

Market    Selection    Bet placed    Odds
   
Fixtures 22 April / Bangalore v Chennai / Match Odds  Bangalore Back    22-Apr-15 14:04    2.28    17

doubt we'll get a price worth taking on narine in future, but i'll keep an eye out. rcb not selecting gayle wasnt something i had envisaged. very much under the pump here. in ab de villiers we trust ...