Little HU PLO spot for the fans :)

[SuuPRlim]

IPoker, $1/$2 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 2 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (SB): $304.80 (152.4 bb)
BB: $233.80 (116.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K T 6 J
Hero raises to $6, BB raises to $18, Hero calls $12

Flop: ($36) T 4 7
BB checks,Hero bets $28, BB calls $28

Turn: ($92) 7
BB checks, HERO?

Almost exactly 2x pot left. We've been playing for a while over 3 tables and just recently the action has gotten a little heated. He has a 83% Cbet in 3bet pots and rarely c/r's in 3bet pots.

So this should be a great turn card for us as we now have two flush draws and our villain seems almost >1% to have a full house but stacks are a little messy - what does everyone like doing here?

[pleno1]

I'm sorry if I missed it as its 2am but surely turn cbet% and WTSD is more important than flop in this circumstance?

[Dubai]

Bet $38-42/call

Shove all rivers if he calls turn

[SuuPRlim]

I'm sorry if I missed it as its 2am but surely turn cbet% and WTSD is more important than flop in this circumstance?

mmm, I dont think so, the fact he has a high flop Cbet in 3bet pots (over decent sample) and yet he chk/calls this flop is the most relevant part imo as it almost certainly caps his range pretty hevily - what specifically would you be looking at from his turn cbet?

[pleno1]

It's 2am and I thought he bet the flop

[SuuPRlim]

It's 2am and I thought he bet the flop

haha no worries. I've never been so good with all the stats :d FISHHH

[TommyD]

This is why I don't like stats alone.  From your history with the villain where abouts in his range is this 83%?  Is it the bottom end, C-betting all air, weak hands, draws but calling with sets and made hands plus combos?  Is it at the top where he just gives up on junk?  Or the middle?  I need more information TBH before I think he's got less than 1% chance to have made a boat on the turn TBH.

Also what have your tendencies been, are you jumping on him when he gives up the betting lead OOP?  I'm torn whether to check here and try to get to a showdown if we improve for already a decent pot or whether to bet again with our double flush draw.  I will kind of hate life if he C/R the turn though.

[SuuPRlim]

This is why I don't like stats alone.  From your history with the villain where abouts in his range is this 83%?  Is it the bottom end, C-betting all air, weak hands, draws but calling with sets and made hands plus combos?  Is it at the top where he just gives up on junk?  Or the middle?  I need more information TBH before I think he's got less than 1% chance to have made a boat on the turn TBH.

Also what have your tendencies been, are you jumping on him when he gives up the betting lead OOP?  I'm torn whether to check here and try to get to a showdown if we improve for already a decent pot or whether to bet again with our double flush draw.  I will kind of hate life if he C/R the turn though.

Yh don't read too much into the stats imo, the relevance of the 83% 3bet pot Cbet is to demonstrate he cbetting often in 3bet pots, so of the "13%" he isn't cbeting he will be giving up some and calling others - this doesn't tell us what exaxctly he is cBetting, but what it shows is that the majority of hands he wants to continue with, he is betting.

So, the big question IMO is what do you think is the most likely hands he chk/calls the flop with, when he has been betting the majority of his hands in this spot. The reason I say he is >1% to have a boat is because if you are cbetting a lot in 3bet pots, why would you now chk/call TT, 77, T7 (likely will have gutshots+ with it) on such a wet board

Tommy What would you instinctively think he had when he c/called the flop?

[Patonius2000]

Easy value bet and obv you can't fold to a jam. Bet call like 50ish.

[TommyD]

This is why I don't like stats alone.  From your history with the villain where abouts in his range is this 83%?  Is it the bottom end, C-betting all air, weak hands, draws but calling with sets and made hands plus combos?  Is it at the top where he just gives up on junk?  Or the middle?  I need more information TBH before I think he's got less than 1% chance to have made a boat on the turn TBH.

Also what have your tendencies been, are you jumping on him when he gives up the betting lead OOP?  I'm torn whether to check here and try to get to a showdown if we improve for already a decent pot or whether to bet again with our double flush draw.  I will kind of hate life if he C/R the turn though.

Yh don't read too much into the stats imo, the relevance of the 83% 3bet pot Cbet is to demonstrate he cbetting often in 3bet pots, so of the "13%" he isn't cbeting he will be giving up some and calling others - this doesn't tell us what exaxctly he is cBetting, but what it shows is that the majority of hands he wants to continue with, he is betting.

So, the big question IMO is what do you think is the most likely hands he chk/calls the flop with, when he has been betting the majority of his hands in this spot. The reason I say he is >1% to have a boat is because if you are cbetting a lot in 3bet pots, why would you now chk/call TT, 77, T7 (likely will have gutshots+ with it) on such a wet board

Tommy What would you instinctively think he had when he c/called the flop?

Instinctively I think he has a weak low extending made hand, tens with two or three higher cards, QQXX, JJXX etc.  They are ahead but we have a bucketful of equity, he wants an equity killer on the turn as well as refusing your repot with all manner of hands after his C-bet.  In play I'm betting and not folding on the turn.  My only worry is while the turn is a great card for our hand equity it's not a great card for our fold equity when we bet the turn.  I think any bet on the turn is much nearer a semi bluff than a V-bet.

[SuuPRlim]

here's how my internal monologue went mid-hand...

He can't have a boat ever really, I can easily have any of the boats (TT, T7, 77, 74, 44) I can also have a decent amount of 7's (mid/high run downs that flopped wraps with 7's, hands like 679J with hearts I was B/C flop with etc) he really can't have any of these hands all that often, the absolute top of his range is a hand like 6789 with no hearts he decided not to jam the flop with, so I felt like I was getting c/r nearly never as whereas this cards makes his range stronger (OP's with blues mostly) it only strengthens his equity vs my bluffs and semi-bluffs so call/call would be his most likely route to continue but I felt for sure like he would be folding a decent amount and calling and folding any scary river (8, 9, 6, 5, 3, ) so at the time it seemed like bet and jam river - nearly any river as well.

However this hand has split opinion of a lot of good players which i've found interesting, most saying the same as you Tommy that they don't think we get anywhere near enough folds OTT

I bet $42 and called the extra $145 off as played.

[TommyD]

here's how my internal monologue went mid-hand...

He can't have a boat ever really, I can easily have any of the boats (TT, T7, 77, 74, 44) I can also have a decent amount of 7's (mid/high run downs that flopped wraps with 7's, hands like 679J with hearts I was B/C flop with etc) he really can't have any of these hands all that often, the absolute top of his range is a hand like 6789 with no hearts he decided not to jam the flop with, so I felt like I was getting c/r nearly never as whereas this cards makes his range stronger (OP's with blues mostly) it only strengthens his equity vs my bluffs and semi-bluffs so call/call would be his most likely route to continue but I felt for sure like he would be folding a decent amount and calling and folding any scary river (8, 9, 6, 5, 3, ) so at the time it seemed like bet and jam river - nearly any river as well.

However this hand has split opinion of a lot of good players which i've found interesting, most saying the same as you Tommy that they don't think we get anywhere near enough folds OTT

I bet $42 and called the extra $145 off as played.

I agree that a 7 is in your range, however in play I don't think the villain is thinking that.  It's the joy of heads up cash that you get inside someones head, the downside of this being sometimes you get set in stone for the ranges you give your opponent.  I think your villain here has gone very firmly into the camp that after flatting pre and getting a flop which has 2/3 turns as completing a straight as well as 4 to a flush that much more often than not you have a good draw of some kind.  His unusual (for him) check/flat pre tells us he has something he thinks is ahead.  He wants that equity killer on the turn and when he is so focused into thinking you are on a draw (which you kind of have to be on this board most of the time) the second card pairing is a blank for him, but with it bringing in a second flush draw he can't hang about.  Knowing you're likely to fire again I'm not surprised him check/jamming and still think you're pretty much in the right ball park of the hands he can have here (although I am of course prepared to be wrong).

I think the villain has tied himself in a few knots in this hand and as a result has put you in an odd corner.