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horseplayer
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« on: February 07, 2012, 10:33:19 AM » |
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Firstly appreciate im "new" here but have been lurking for a long time
After spending the last few days reading some cracking threads (eso krals life story was/is superb)
This wont be anywere as good as that but i hope to show a profit over the next few months
Today a couple of moderate cards at southwell and wolverhampton, a lot of people hate the low grade stuff but for me its were most of my betting comes. I enjoy watching the group races and cheltenham but the markets are rarely very wrong at that level.
The 1.45 at southwell is a class 6 race for slow animals with inexperienced jockeys on board, a race most would ignore.
Approaching a race like this i am looking for something new in a horses profile. One of the most important is a trainer change and we have one here in APACHE WARRIOR, goes from george moore to david o meara. Now moore isnt the worst trainer but has had plenty of horses leave him that have improved and o meara is pretty much the master of inheriting others horses in his short training career.
The horse itself showed great promise first time out back in aug 2010 and in 2 further starts that year, last seasons form figure look horrid but having rewatched these races last night the horse was slowly away in all 3 races and never put into the races at any stage. Never run at southwell but breeding suggests will handle the surface. Im sure this horse has some latent ability certainly to run a good race of a mark of 52 here, the jockey is one of the more experienced in the race and 13-2 (there is 15-2 but sportingbet are a joke firm) is a more than fair price.
For the simplicity of this thread i will stake between 1 and 5pts per selection. This is a 2pt win.
Bet 1 Apache Warrior 1.35 southwell 13-2 totesport BOG 2pt win
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Eso Kral
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« Reply #1 on: February 07, 2012, 10:40:32 AM » |
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GLGL with this and thx for enjoying the diary!!
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Andrew Charles Blacklock - Lived for those he loved and those he loved remember.
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doubleup
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« Reply #2 on: February 07, 2012, 11:07:01 AM » |
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gl
I never bet in amateur riders races (after a couple of shockers) so I'll have to pass.
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MajorMajor
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« Reply #3 on: February 07, 2012, 11:17:54 AM » |
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On, got 8-1
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Karabiner
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« Reply #4 on: February 07, 2012, 11:35:22 AM » |
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Lumped my maximum allowed bet on with sky @ 8/1. £12.50.
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"Golf is deceptively simple and endlessly complicated. It satisfies the soul and frustrates the intellect. It is at the same time maddening and rewarding and it is without a doubt the greatest game that mankind has ever invented." - Arnold Palmer aka The King.
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bobby1
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« Reply #5 on: February 07, 2012, 12:37:54 PM » |
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good luck mate
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“The two most important days in your life are the day you are born and the day you find out why.”
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Girgy85
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« Reply #6 on: February 07, 2012, 12:39:19 PM » |
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Im a mug. On £15ew @ 7/1 gl us
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Best poster Girgy IMO - Mantis
Girgy is my new hero! - Evilpie
Think Girgy has shown the best leopard instincts in this thread and would prob survive best in the wild. Eye of the tiger that fella - Mantis
Girgy is a m'fkn machine - Daveshoelace
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Karabiner
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« Reply #7 on: February 07, 2012, 01:45:16 PM » |
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Bit of a plunge on the Apache, it's in to 9/2
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"Golf is deceptively simple and endlessly complicated. It satisfies the soul and frustrates the intellect. It is at the same time maddening and rewarding and it is without a doubt the greatest game that mankind has ever invented." - Arnold Palmer aka The King.
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Karabiner
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« Reply #8 on: February 07, 2012, 01:54:04 PM » |
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Im a bok. On £15ew @ 7/1 gl us
fyp |
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"Golf is deceptively simple and endlessly complicated. It satisfies the soul and frustrates the intellect. It is at the same time maddening and rewarding and it is without a doubt the greatest game that mankind has ever invented." - Arnold Palmer aka The King.
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Raman
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« Reply #9 on: February 07, 2012, 01:56:14 PM » |
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Like the idea, Its something I play close attention to when making selections.
Good luck with this.
I missed the race, I haven't had a bet yet I woke up this morning with such a blistering migraine I couldn't even look at the screen. I hope I haven't missed out on much.
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Simon Galloway
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« Reply #10 on: February 07, 2012, 03:46:29 PM » |
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35 lengths behind?  |
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action man
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« Reply #11 on: February 07, 2012, 06:26:54 PM » |
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all wolverhampton and lingfield are used for is trainers and owners to land coups with quirky backward horses, big greyhounds i like to call them
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Biddy 62
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« Reply #12 on: February 07, 2012, 07:17:38 PM » |
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Yer i agree just has bent as the little chappies. You've forgot Kempton and Southwell.
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horseplayer
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« Reply #13 on: February 08, 2012, 12:05:07 PM » |
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firstly we beat the price yesterday but the horse ran a shocker no excuses i am in this for the long game one losing bet wont upset or dishearten me
anyway three small plays today at kempton
in these low grade sprints at kempton one of the biggest factors is having a low draw, to win from the outisde draw the horse has to either get a very easy lead or be progressive.
2.20 Kempton Bobbyow 1pt win 9-2 stan james BOG has shown much more last twice for new trainer since being gelded, the last run at lingfield was good form in the context of this race 3rd run back from a long lay off and has one of the plum low draws, trainer is hardly flying but has had a few run well at big odds in the last week (mr willis for one)
5.30 Kempton Shrejawy 1pt win 10-1 ladbrokes consistent horse and importantly for a low grade animal has a good strike rate (for this grade) hasnt had a good draw for a long time and is slightly overpriced this morning
6.00 Kempton Macks Sister 1pt win 7-1 stan jame BOG travelled up very well in last two starts indicating still in good fettle has the plum draw and should go close today in a decent race for the grade.
gd lk all and back tommorow
running total -2pts
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Raman
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« Reply #14 on: February 08, 2012, 05:20:58 PM » |
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Sherjawy has seen some market support today and from an early 14/1 its now priced at 7/1. Personally, this was one of the first early morning movers that I had ruled out.
Rightcar, Bellinsky, Even Bolder and Whipphound all came out as better prospects for me. Also following your logic of needing that low draw I'd be looking more closely at Dickie Le Davoir if he can come out on terms and make advantage of that draw.
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