Villains seems F.O.S - What to do with 5 high...?

[cambridgealex]

1/2 cash at DTD. Villain is a trader who is playing more and more often in the games. He's a bit fishy, peels very wide pre and takes some strange/unorthadox lines in hands, prone to making a crazy play, but seems to respect us and doesn't usually get too out of line vs us. Pays off fairly light and seems incapable of value betting thinly in big pots. He's a bit annoyed at this moment because he ran Ax into my 33 on A33JA and he raise/called the river and he realised it was a bad play and has been berating himself for this.

Game is pretty deep, villain starts the hand with £1300, I cover.

I open to £8 from the hijack and he calls on the button, the bb calls.

(£25) check, I cbet £13, he calls IP, bb folds.

(£51) I bet £35, he makes it £100, I call.

(£251) I check he bets £280, has about £900 behind.

My thoughts: Flop - Think this is probably a bad cbet, but we have bdr straight and flush draws so it's OK imo.

Turn - again, not expecting many folds on the this card, but betting is definitely better than check calling for obvious reasons. Figured he would fold some 98,97 hands, smaller pairs, and I could get him off 9T, Q9, JQ, JT, 78 sort of hands on the river perhaps. When he raises I figure he has two pair, QT or semi bluffing with 78 or some random float/gutshot. Call standard I think, because I'm just leading any club river and he's definitely paying me off with his value range.

River - he over pots it. Defo doesn't have two pair anymore, it's a straight or a bluff. The Queen makes it less likely he has QT, and also wouldn't expect him to bet so big with QT but he might. It's also possible/likely that he'd just fold QT on the flop.

He's not a great hand reader, so if I check raised the river I'm not worried about not repping much, he's just snap folding his air, he's not gonna rebluff or hero me with some random 6 or 9x that he's decided to play like this.

TIME TO FIND OUR BALLS?!

[EvilPie]

Tough one. Personally I'd be giving up on the turn but now you've got this far.......

I'd love to say shove but I don't think I'd have the balls to do it. Probably just giving up on the £121.

Given your read though where you're basically saying he needs a ten to call I guess it has to be correct.

Would a min raise do the same job? Is that what you were thinking? Raise/fold for £560?

[cambridgealex]

Also there's small chance he's folds QT on the river if we shove, figuring us for or "calling for a chop at best", especially since the Ax vs 33 hand were he called the river for like £800 for a chop at best, maybe that'll ring in his mind and he'll fold a Ten here.

Minraise ftw perhaps, or shove, I was thinking of both...

[EvilPie]

Also there's small chance he's folds QT on the river if we shove, figuring us for or "calling for a chop at best", especially since the Ax vs 33 hand were he called the river for like £800 for a chop at best, maybe that'll ring in his mind and he'll fold a Ten here.

Minraise ftw perhaps, or shove, I was thinking of both...

I hate to admit it but my balls would go and I'd have to do a fold. A lot of this is based on how much actual cash is at stake rather than the correct 'play' though.

If you're going to sit deep though then these are the sort of plays you're going to face and I think your instincts seem spot on.

Get that raise in!!

Is it worth risking £900 to see the look on his face when he sigh folds the ten face up and you get to show the old 'playing the board'?

If you're not planning on bungee jumping or sky diving any time soon then this might just be the next best thing.

[The Camel]

Min raise is horrible isn't it?

Given history, shove it in.

[pleno1]

"i can count on one hand the amount of times I've tried to bluff the river vs live players, DONT DO IT"

Cambridge Alex Feb2012.

fold turn.

[cambridgealex]

"i can count on one hand the amount of times I've tried to bluff the river vs live players, DONT DO IT"

Cambridge Alex Feb2012.

fold turn.

haha bluffing people off made hands is one thing, this is bluffing him off 8 high! or maybe some small pair. It's obv 100% working if he doesnt have a straight. If he has a straight it might work 10% of the time.

turn is never a fold! I'm calling 65 into 186 so getting 3:1 immediate odds, he only needs to pay off £225 on the river like 1 time in 5 for it to be profitable. And as I said, he's ALWAYS calling with two pair/straight. No reversed implied either unless he has QTgreen or 78green.

[Whollyflush]

flop bet seems bad this deep, turn is interesting i think i prefer c/c than betting this deep. Its not a big draw and not a good card as it likely improves him yet you still have alot of implied odds vs this type of player this deep. You will also get a free card a decent amount if he decides to check back a KT/JT type of hand some % of the time. Dislike c/r river, he can certainly have a number of tens in his range, at worst he often has two pair and i wouldn't trust him not to get stubborn.

[cambridgealex]

flop bet seems bad this deep, turn is interesting i think i prefer c/c than betting this deep. Its not a big draw and not a good card as it likely improves him yet you still have alot of implied odds vs this type of player this deep. You will also get a free card a decent amount if he decides to check back a KT/JT type of hand some % of the time. Dislike c/r river, he can certainly have a number of tens in his range, at worst he often has two pair and i wouldn't trust him not to get stubborn.

He might have two pair on the turn, but absolutely no way he overpots the river with two pair.

[The Camel]

Did you shove river with the quads?

[cambridgealex]

Did you shove river with the quads?

yeh

[The Camel]

Did you shove river with the quads?

yeh

Def shove the river here then.

He's only calling with AT green imo.

[pleno1]

Did you shove river with the quads?

yeh

Def shove the river here then.

He's only calling with AT green imo.

lol he isn't folding a straight mate.

[giveyourcash]

It's tough because how does he possibly have a ten and he's only betting a ten here but pretty much every single time a guy like this (obviously smart wants to win rather than gamble but lacking some fundamentals) pots the river he has a strong hand. Your history does make a difference but I generally wouldn't expect to see him airballing here to make a river shove of 900 to win 500 profitable, having 0% equity every time you're called makes a big difference. I personally think he has it more than 55% of the time.

Also don't fold full houses it's a bad habit to get into.

[SuuPRlim]

everthing you've said is spot on. he doesn't have many ten's and he is bluffing here quite a bit, you need 60% folds which tbh you might even get but I mean, do youreally need the variance here lol??


I think I agree with JP I wouldn't c-bet this board, not a flop you get it through on 3handed very often, speshly vs the description of this guy and we don't really want to be commiting ourselves to a multi-barrel with such poor equity. As played I think betting the turn is marginally better than c/c and once you bet £35 and he makes it £100 seems a no brainer it seems.

I'd bet the turn bigger, prolly £50, I won't be betting the river as a bluff here as he sounds like the sort of chap who won't be folding so I'm betting bigger to try force the lower parts of his range out of the hand (nice and unbalanced I know but w/e) with my small amount of equity and then when i river a club I can bet £135 and almost certainly get called, he isn't folding a strong 1pair or a decent 1p/draw for any money on the turn so i'd focus myself and just bombing the 97/98/68/78 hands out if I can