Channing's Cheltenham chatter

[Bad Beat]

 I spent £600,000 on racecourse pitches Rick. I sold them for around £50,000. I wish I'd never done that. Thanks for mentioning it. That was my bookmaking career. It cost me on average £600 a day to go to the races, I was an aggressive bookmaker with big expenses and several staff. After a few years it was clear it was no longer a viable business.

 I am pretty happy with the money I've made betting on horses. I do think that betting provides a great way to settle all discussions on who knows what they are doing.

 Would you like to lay me some bets?

[Bad Beat]

 I once told someone in an interview that I went out of business because my prices were too big.

 In truth the combination of debit cards and mobile phones becoming more commonly available, Betfair taking a lot of my commercial advantages away, turnover dropping and expenses rising totally killed my business.

 It was the closest I've been to comitting suicide on the final day of the Glorious Goodwood meeting of 2003 when I finally realised it had all gone wrong.

 Thanks for mentioning it though Rick.

 How much would you like to gamble at Cheltenham?

 I'm prepared to go heads-up for rolls (I am perfectly serious).

[action man]

got out of bed the wrong way? was a pretty tongue in cheek from me. I apologise if it caused any offence. I think it was a fair question though.

[Bad Beat]

 I'm quite serious. Would you like to find out if you'd enjoy laying my bets? Your post stated I went skint backing my own opinion. You do not know how I have done punting my opinion, but I'm happy for you to find out if you wish to try.

[action man]

wrong, i asked, although with bad punctuation. "didnt he go broke betting his opinions" missed a question mark out there. Was just looking for people to confrim you've been crushing for years before we all rushed to bet your opinions with you. Think thats fair enough. And no i dont wan't to lay your bets at cheltenham thanks.

[The Camel]

That picture is so scary. Makes me want to join a gym.

Nearly.

You've got a bet, your Finians v  my Zeb. How much do you want?

[pleno1]

love channing

[action man]

That picture is so scary. Makes me want to join a gym.

Nearly.

You've got a bet, your Finians v  my Zeb. How much do you want?

bottle?

[The Camel]

That picture is so scary. Makes me want to join a gym.

Nearly.

You've got a bet, your Finians v  my Zeb. How much do you want?

bottle?

Booked.

Either is a non runner, no bet.

[bobby1]

Of all the people that deserve to get gambling grief surely  NC is way near the bottom of the list. I would love to have won a pound less than he has when i retire.

Im pretty sure Ricks post came across differently than it was meant to tho.

[Bad Beat]

Hope nobody minds (take it down if you like). Every week I am involved in The Punter. This week we did a Cheltenham Special:

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AMHOdIVTJ3k

[tikay]

Of all the people that deserve to get gambling grief surely  NC is way near the bottom of the list. I would love to have won a pound less than he has when i retire.

Im pretty sure Ricks post came across differently than it was meant to tho.

If Mr Channing followed the "tikay Tips" Thread, he could be as rich as I used to be.

[edgascoigne]

Whilst we're at it...a brief preview I just wrote for a chap who has invited me up to the box next to the Finish line on Tuesday (thin, I know).


Supreme Novices

Recent renewals have tended to ‘grant’ punters a short priced jolly in the Festival opener but no such ‘good fortune’ this year (said favs have been a massive let down of late).

This is instead a wide open contest with Darlan likely to go off favourite around the 4/1 mark. Owned by JP McManus and trained by Nicky Henderson the horse should prove a popular choice for punters, especially given JP’s comments regarding Darlan being his best chance of a winner through the festival. He’s backed this view up with cold hard cash punting Darlan in from c12/1 following his fall when going best in the Betfair hurdle to around 6/1, and since then punters more generally have leapt on the Bandwagon.

I punted Darlan at 20/1 (thinly veiled brag) after his easy win earlier in the year so am happy enough but wouldn’t advise backing at such a short price as 4/1 given his previous travails up the Cheltenham hill. Instead side with Steps to Freedom.  Jessica Harrington’s always seem to go well at the festival and she’s no mean trainer. Apparently STF has been working very well at home and gave Oscar’s Well a beating on the gallops and a bit of market support in recent weeks (having held a position near the head of the market for some time) is highly promising. Anything around 7/1 would rate a decent bet to get the Festival off to a decent start.

The Arkle

The first ‘banker’ of the festival comes out in the shape of Sprinter Sacre, a horse about who Barry Geraghty has been raving in relatively hushed/awed tone. He’s as good a judge as they come and given SS’s unbeaten record over fences (including a couple of track records) he’s tough to oppose.

Cue Card has been poor over fences and Menorah no better, and it would shock me if either came good here. SS’s greatest rival is Al Ferof, who won the opener here a year back with SS in third. Apparently bought as a future Gold Cup horse for Nicholls’ yard he’ll certainly get the hill and is my choice at around 11/4 to beat the machine that is SS. It may well be that SS really proves to be something special, but given the manner in which he faded up the hill in last year’s Supreme I’m happy to take him on with Al Ferof.

JLT Handicap

Oh dear… the first of the meeting’s ‘guess-ups’. Quantitativeasing will likely be all the rage given the manner of his victory here in December (getting up to beat Medermit on the line having flown up the hill. He should go close but betting 6/1 shots in big field handicaps isn’t generally my cup of tea and I don’t see any value in the price.

Two I do like at ‘working man’s’ prices are Tullamore Dew (likely to be around 12/1) and Mossley (around 20/1 should he line up). A lot of firms will offer 5 places in this race and these can both go close (or, heaven forbid, even win) at decent prices. Mossley in particular looks rather well handicapped to my mind and has course form. Nick Gifford’s tend to go pretty well at the festival and TD certainly seems on a mark from which he is likely to prove competitive.

Champion Hurdle

Hurricane Fly (NAP). Not an unusual choice but will win. The thing’s an absolute machine and should be the first of two short-priced winners for Mullins on the Tuesday (see Mares’ Hurdle re: Quevega).

He’ll likely go off 4/6 which won’t make you rich quick unless you bet the house, but generally when horses are odds-on in a Grade 1 with 10 runners there’s pretty decent reason for it… No reason to suspect any of the other Irish raiders will turn around recent form, and Zarkandar and Rock on Ruby rate, to my mind, the best English challengers (think Binocular is gone at the game (cue him hacking up)). I backed Rock on Ruby for last year’s Neptune at 25/1, watched him trade 1.05 in running before getting beat on the line (marvelous) and, whilst I’d expect to see him in the shake-up I just don’t think he has the class to beat the Fly. Zarkandar’s victory at Newbury was a mighty fine one under a wonderful ride from Ruby, but with Walsh taking the HFly mount I just don’t see it.

If things are going your way in the early races barrel in to the Fly and press up!!

Cross Country Chase

‘Horses for courses’ or so they say for this specialist race, and the old guard will have plenty of support. Scotsirish is the better of Mullins’ two and, though he’s the jolly, still represents value around the 3/1 mark. He had a look at the course back in December (in the race where c8 runners took the wrong route!), and was going best that day trading 1.6 in running having been backed all day into 11/8 (from around 4/1).

In my mind he’s a class apart and well worth a bet, even at the front of the market.

Mares’ Hurdle

Quevega will win, though whether 4/7 is for you I will leave to you to decide.

For those looking for an each-way alternative a chap I know who is a v. decent judge likes Kentford Grey Lady running for Emma Lavelle. If betting on course just be wary not to get stiffed on the each-way terms as they try to stop the each-way thieves…

Pulteney Novices’ Chase

Back to throwing darts at the board in the lucky last. Nicky Henderson has quietly positive about his runner Triolo d’Alene (tipping it to his old school’s racing club as his best bet of the festival) though it’s not exactly a well-guarded secret with the horse likely to go off favourite or near-enough around the 5/1 mark.
I quite like the look of That’ll Do and Vino Griego if lining up. The former is likely to be around the 14/1 mark, has course form and has previously beaten For Non Stop giving away 7lbs. He’s been put away since October (preserving his mark presumably) and I’d expect him to go close for Nicholls. How he’ll handle the big field would be my only question mark.

Vino Griego runs for Gary Moore and was competitive in last year’s Centenary Novice’s finishing fourth proving course and large field form. He was beaten just a couple of lengths by Quantitaveasing and Tullamore Dew that day (admittedly getting 6lbs), but I quite like both of these two earlier in the day so the form ties in well. At around the 25/1 mark I rank him as a lively outsider, and at around the 5/1 mark for the place part of an each-way bet represents excellent value.

[bobby1]

Tremendous stuff all round on here already.

tx

[Ironside]

I'm just out on my travels today:

I will be visiting lots of betting shops in the North East of England to have ew Lucky 31s

Al Ferof
Binocular
Kentford Grey Lady
Oscar Whisky
Big Zeb

Get on, get paid.

anyone know which races these guys are in so i can find them online