Channing's Cheltenham chatter

[henrik777]

What would that £310 lucky 31 pay if they all placed?

Bugger all as £10 * 31 would be win only but a £620 one would yield a win around what Camel says.

Sandy

Nope the one I worked out was £5 ew..

Haha, used an online calc then dismissed it as i didn't want to argue with you

Sandy

[claimer]

I havent had many bets, did ask Trigg for some advice - however have added Keiths Lucky 31 at £5e/w for £310 to his previosuly advised Midnight at 25s in Gold Cup and the New One in the bumper.  Owe you a beer Keef if they all kop for sure.....

You asked who for advice?

Trigg is a bookies wet dream at cheltenham and his stats at the festival are 0/7.

Last year his biggest bet was the last race on the friday, it was an ametuer womens jockeys race, hands and heels, no whips charity race.

[Hairydude]

I'm just out on my travels today:

I will be visiting lots of betting shops in the North East of England to have ew Lucky 31s

Al Ferof    arkle
Binocular champion hurdle
Kentford Grey Lady   mares hurdle
Oscar Whisky   world hurdle
Big Zeb    champion chase
 
Get on, get paid.

anyone know which races these guys are in so i can find them online

I'm just out on my travels today:

I will be visiting lots of betting shops in the North East of England to have ew Lucky 31s

Al Ferof
Binocular
Kentford Grey Lady
Oscar Whisky
Big Zeb

Get on, get paid.

anyone know which races these guys are in so i can find them online

I think this is right.

Al Ferof - 2:05 - Tuesday 13th. Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase (Grade 1)

Binocular - Tuesday 13th. 3:20 - Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1)

Kentford Grey Lady - Tuesday 13th. 4:40 - OLBG Mares' Hurdle (for the David Nicholson trophy).(Grade 2)

Oscar Whisky - Thursday 15th. 3:20 - Ladbrokes World Hurdle (Grade 1)

Big Zeb - Wednesday 14th. 3:20 - sportingbet.com Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1)

thanks guys

On for peanuts for some interest tomorrow!!!

lets go!!!

[edgascoigne]

I havent had many bets, did ask Trigg for some advice - however have added Keiths Lucky 31 at £5e/w for £310 to his previosuly advised Midnight at 25s in Gold Cup and the New One in the bumper.  Owe you a beer Keef if they all kop for sure.....

You asked who for advice?

Trigg is a bookies wet dream at cheltenham and his stats at the festival are 0/7.

Last year his biggest bet was the last race on the friday, it was an ametuer womens jockeys race, hands and heels, no whips charity race.

Pretty sure these two don't exactly pair up as clearly as you are insinuating.

But A+ for another incendiary, attention-seeking post, wp.

[action man]

Lol @ wet dream. I did have a score ew on the charity race last year on the thursday, as we were still fking around looking for the noble prince ticket you had dropped on the floor, wasn't my biggest bet by a long way obv. Although I have had a bad last few cheltenham's. I've not resorted to following slh and roger greens selections yet though.

[action man]

I'm best man at this guys wedding by the way, great person in real life, absolute living arsehole on facebook, twitter and now blonde. We've been best mates for 16 years and after I linked the thread on facebook came on after a bottle of the grape juice to defend me/state channing. He was the first claimer to play poker before I took over his account back in 05

[edgascoigne]

My bad.

Enjoy cheltenham all.

[tikay]

Try again.

Below is the continuation of Neil's e-Mail to his Black Belt Poker players.

To see more detailed analysis, go to the Black Belt Poker Forum as below.

I had planned to upload this first part yesterday morning, as agreed with Neil, but I decided to delay it. Therefore some of the time-sensitive stuff is out of date.

[tikay]

Hi guys,
 
I didn't get too many people saying "Will you stop sending that drivel, it was incredibly dull and we don't care what you think." so I thought I'd persevere with a Wednesday and Thursday email containing some early thoughts.
 
I plan to write detailed stuff about all the races every day on Black Belt. You will be able to find them by looking at "Groups" and clicking the group for Green Belts and above. Only around 20 people can post there so the thread should stay near the top and not get bogged-down with white noise.
 
Many, many thanks to those who did bets for me. If anyone can help with Binocular at 5/1 each-way with Hills, Corals or Boyles that would be great, just let me know.

It's a little sad that Cue Card is just 6/1 and Menorah 9/1 while they are 10/1 and 14/1 win-only on Betfair. I have until tomorrow at 10am to get more on those as it will be revealed that the Arkle is a six horse race. If anyone can help here I may try and back them both even at these prices.

The other race yesterday, for those that didn't read it, was the David Nicholson hurdle. I would like help getting 10/1 and 12/1 on Swincombe Flame and Kentford Grey Lady if anyone can get on with Paddy Power who are the firm offering these.

[tikay]

On to Wednesday. I would like to stress that I'll be having many bets on every single race but these emails contain the strongest bets and the ones where I think the prices are very wrong and we need to act now. Wednesday doesn't have too many things where we need to rush in and so I'll do most stuff on the day.

The RSA is not one for early action as we don't know if the favourite Grand Crus will take this route or go in the Gold Cup. I suspect it'll go here and I'll oppose it quite strongly. One big price one you could back now would be Walkon. It's 33/1 with Boyles, Betfred and Stan James (or Spoylesports, Baldies and Sid James if you prefer). It's shorter on Betfair and I know it's fancied. I may get very interested in Sir Des Champs on the day but not yet.
 
The Neptune is also complicated by running plans. Here I would oppose the favourite Simonsig for many reasons and I quite like Batonnier. There is no need to rush and do anything yet though.
 
The NH Chase (call it the 4-miler if you want to appear expert), the Coral Cup and the Fred Winter are all races where different firms will offer enhanced each-way terms as a loss-leader on the day. They may even do that in the Champion Bumper. For those non-expert basically they will give us chances to bet EVERY horse in the race and guarantee a profit. That chance would only exist if we could bet place-only and get best prices, but it does mean that we should easily find +ev bets.

[tikay]

That leaves us with just one race on Wednesday.
 
The Queen Mother Champion Chase is one of those races people often say you can "enjoy without having a bet".
 
If I ever get to that stage will someone please unplug the ventilator.
 
This is starting to look like it might be a seven-runner race so we should do our each-way business early while the bookies are assuming they'll be eight or nine and they are offering 1,2,3 1/4 odds.
 
The bet for me is Big Zeb.
 
The arguments against are that it is an 11-year old who got thrashed by evens favourite Sizing Europe last time. I would say it hated the ground that day, it is a horse that improves in the spring, it will love the good fast ground, it has won the race before and it has a record of 2-2 vs Sizing Europe, including beating it easily on good ground after Cheltenham last year. One is evs and one is 5/1 and we will make a small profit even if it comes 2nd or 3rd.
 
I'm against third favourite Finian's Rainbow and I would expect one or two of the outsiders to go to the Ryan Air on Thursday to swerve Sizing Europe.
 
It wouldn't surprise me that much if Wishfull Thinking or Guavain won at 16/1 or 33/1 but the solid professional each-way bet that will get you thrown out of a lot of bookmakers, (always good to do bets that make the bookmaker grimace), is Big Zeb each-way at 5/1 with Stan James.
 
The main problem here is that this firm is a sham of a bookmaker and between us we can probably get £200 on. I will end up happy to take 9/2 but I may make that decision tomorrow. There is still a chance that Ladbrokes or Hills offer 5/1+ as a loss-leader on this high-profile race.

[tikay]

On to Thursday...
 
The day starts with the Jewson where I'm going to be quite strongly against Peddler's Cross and I like Champion Court. It's unclear as to exactly who runs here at the moment and I'll be involved on the day.
 
The Pertemps Final, The Kim Muir and The Byrne Group plate I'll be playing on the day. I would expect lots of juicy enhanced ew terms on these.
 
The Ryan Air Chase I will have a bet in though. Great Endeavour was given a mental ride by Timmy Murphy last year and he didn't last out. It's going to be hard to lead all the way in this one too, but it's a lesser trip and you are getting a good price. I'm backing it at 12/1 each way.
 
I am against Rubi Light, Riverside Theatre, Somersby and Albertas Run for many reasons, enough strong ones to make this race feel much less competitive than it might at first glance.
 
I respect Noble Prince a lot and I could make a case for Poquelin at 16/1 but for me Great Endeavour could collapse in price. The 12/1 with Hills will not last. The one problem is that they are not doing "non-runner no bet", so I shall bet in a day or so, when the risk is lower.
 
One of the reasons I think the price will collapse is that Tom Segal of Racing Post Pricewise fame likes the horse. He has already tipped Medermit, (has a good chance), in the race but I could see him tipping Great Endeavour on the day and the price going to 7/1.
 

[tikay]

The feature race of the day is the great each-way race of the day. Obviously you'd have to be mad to take on the legendary Big Bucks who has won 15 consecutive races.
 
 Here goes...
 
 I'm backing a couple each-way. One I'd like to do now and if anyone could help me that would be great. The horse is Voler La Vedette (it's not 28/1 on Betfair) (that's an in-joke I hope you liked).
 
 It's 16/1 with Hills. I won't bore you with reasons why I like it, but I'll assure you Hills don't really want you to have this bet.
 
The other one I love is Mourad. Mourad finished 3rd in this race last year beaten just 4.5 lengths by Big Bucks. It didn't really sparkle that day and hadn't sparkled at all this season until it's last run when it won from the front. It's double the price of last year and it's a spring horse.
 
If you can help me get on at 16/1 each-way that'd be good but I may be alright as the price is there with lots of firms and the win-only price is bigger on Betfair.
 
I'll be writing again with a Friday update tomorrow and I'll post yesterday's and this on Black Belt.
 
If anyone can help me get on that'd be great.

[tikay]

Nearly up to date now.

The latest missive went out last night, & is reproduced below.

[tikay]

Hi guys,
 
I won't send out any more Cheltenham emails after this one, so apologies if they haven't been interesting to you, but at least there is just this one to delete now.
 
I will be putting a lot of stuff on the long thread on Black Belt so look there if you want to see all races, all days. It's under "Groups" and in the bit that is just for Green/Blue/Brown/Black Belts. There is a thread on the "main" White/Yellow/Orange/Purple group where I'm exchanging banter and comments.

On to Friday then...