Bleurgh spot in 3bet pot. Weekly Stars 100k Guarantee

[stato_1]

PokerStars Hand #77209524991: Tournament #564011043, $300+$20 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XIII (600/1200) - 2012/03/15 5:28:34 WET [2012/03/15 1:28:34 ET]
Table '564011043 27' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: serega23 (58876 in chips)
Seat 2: stato_1 (99535 in chips)
Seat 3: darkdog12 (56169 in chips)
Seat 4: jordankickz (27925 in chips)
Seat 5: guinor (130347 in chips)
Seat 7: byfon (20779 in chips)
Seat 8: madsen69454 (52354 in chips)
Seat 9: hwtd1 (90472 in chips)
serega23: posts the ante 125
stato_1: posts the ante 125
darkdog12: posts the ante 125
jordankickz: posts the ante 125
guinor: posts the ante 125
byfon: posts the ante 125
madsen69454: posts the ante 125
hwtd1: posts the ante 125
darkdog12: posts small blind 600
jordankickz: posts big blind 1200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to stato_1 [ ]
guinor: folds
byfon: folds
madsen69454: folds
hwtd1: raises 1477 to 2677
serega23: calls 2677
stato_1: raises 4598 to 7275
darkdog12: folds
jordankickz: folds
hwtd1: folds
serega23: calls 4598
*** FLOP *** [ As]
serega23: checks
stato_1: checks
*** TURN *** [ As] []
serega23: checks
stato_1: bets 9425
serega23: raises 42051 to 51476 and is all-in

Hardest thing is obv the turn spot, but thoughts on the rest welcome

[DMorgan]

Already discussed the turn spot on skype so will see what others think. I like the squeeze as long as original raiser isn't particularly tight opener obv

[pleno1]

i like 8100 pre, cb flop is good although b/c probably isnt going to be terrible as will 4bet aq/ak and just call down with kq.

[the rage]

I've got no experience whatsoever at playing online tournaments of this level, so, amongst many other factors, i'm not really to sure what range of hands villian would be calling a 3 bet oop with.
I hope nobody minds me having a stab anyway.
I think you should CALL the all in.
I think it's highly unlikely that villian will re-raise all in with any flush. So this would leave either a straight, or, more likely, a pair with a flush draw and gutshot, such as JJ. I just think with a nut straight he would be more likely to just flat call, hoping to dodge a spade on the river.

[cambridgealex]

I'd sigh fold the turn I think

[rfgqqabc]

I'd be inclined to think  he is just spazzing having seen you check back the flop. Turn is just so ugly, i don't think i fold though, he could easily have KQ etc. Hes prob bad having seen pre so call.

[EvilPie]

You appear to have 2 cards in your hand that match 2 of the cards shared by the community of players involved in the hand.

This would therefore seem to be a situation where calling would be appropriate.

Disclaimer: You're probably losing though.

[TL900]

i feel like cbetting flop > checking back. I think were gona get c/r way less on the flop than on the turn when our hand looks exactly like what it is, not that many combos of hands villian can have to flat open then flat 3bet OOP that smash this flop. On the turn i think hes always gona have decent equity even if he doesnt have us beat already, so I fold as played.

[Mondeoman]

You've checked back the flop so your range is capped - on the turn you have about the best hand you can have and his c/raise on the turn is bad whatever his hand (aq?) is so im calling without too much thought.
Dont mind pre maybe add an extra 1k to the three bet just to encourage some more folds.
Would also check back flop.

[stato_1]

You've checked back the flop so your range is capped - on the turn you have about the best hand you can have and his c/raise on the turn is bad whatever his hand (aq?) is so im calling without too much thought.

Yeah I get the first part of this, though I'm not really convinced it's entirely relevant is it?

[Mondeoman]

You've checked back the flop so your range is capped - on the turn you have about the best hand you can have and his c/raise on the turn is bad whatever his hand (aq?) is so im calling without too much thought.

Yeah I get the first part of this, though I'm not really convinced it's entirely relevant is it?

Its relevant if your opponent can hand read.  By checking back the flop you've basically said to your opponent "hey i dont have a set, a straight, two pair or flush draw on this flop - but i do have a hand with some showdown value" - then you bet the turn your opponent should know you can't have a very good hand so they should be more inclined to a) bluff and less inclined to b) massively reraise all in with a strong hand.  Also if villain had a strong hand i'd expect him to lead the turn as quite often your'e going to check back turn. 
Having said all this its difficult to for him to have too many bluffs here - I dont know what level your opponent is working on - i guess he would jam some strong vulnerable hands on the turn but i'd expect him to bet these himself.
Basically in a cash game i'm pretty much never folding top pair with these pot stack ratios let alone two pair - obvs tournaments are different but when in doubt i fall back on basics similar to what Matt said you have two pair in a 3 bet pot with a psr of about 2.5/1.

[NoflopsHomer]

Surely there's too many semi-bluff hands for us to fold here?

[shipitonetime]

Fold pre, wait till u have suited broadways, make a royal, get paid. Isnt that what u usually do?

[BethalLizzle]

I like the squeeze pre but as others have said would make it a tad bigger to try and take it down uncontested. Rightly or wrongly, when he flats the open and then your 3 bet OOP I immediately assume he's a FISH! What sort of range are you assigning him here? Mid pairs, suited broadways/connectors?

Def agree with checking back the flop for pot control. If we get raised on this flop we are going to hate our life and we do have showdown value.

My immediate thought was to call the shove but after some consideration and given his recently acquired FISH status, I think I puke a find a fold here mate. Just feels like he's found his gin card and turned the flush and being ultra fishy trappy by check shoving.

This basically boils down to the assumptions I have made about the player from his pre flop action. If you were to tell me that he was actually a genius I may reevaluate my opinion. I just think a solid player leads their made hands/semi bluffs on the turn though.

[SuuPRlim]

You've checked back the flop so your range is capped - on the turn you have about the best hand you can have and his c/raise on the turn is bad whatever his hand (aq?) is so im calling without too much thought.

Yeah I get the first part of this, though I'm not really convinced it's entirely relevant is it?

Its relevant if your opponent can hand read.  By checking back the flop you've basically said to your opponent "hey i dont have a set, a straight, two pair or flush draw on this flop - but i do have a hand with some showdown value" - then you bet the turn your opponent should know you can't have a very good hand so they should be more inclined to a) bluff and less inclined to b) massively reraise all in with a strong hand.  Also if villain had a strong hand i'd expect him to lead the turn as quite often your'e going to check back turn. 
Having said all this its difficult to for him to have too many bluffs here - I dont know what level your opponent is working on - i guess he would jam some strong vulnerable hands on the turn but i'd expect him to bet these himself.
Basically in a cash game i'm pretty much never folding top pair with these pot stack ratios let alone two pair - obvs tournaments are different but when in doubt i fall back on basics similar to what Matt said you have two pair in a 3 bet pot with a psr of about 2.5/1.

yup +1

As Keith says even in a tourney vacuum it's pretty exploitable to fold the top of your range in a spot where your villain can very feasibly be (semi)bluffing