Barca are 2.15 ave GD in their league, Milan 1.25 in theirs. If you simplify and remove form/league strengths, you get Barca 0.9 ahead, before home advantage. But then you need to move a great deal for Thiago Silva out, Nesta unfit, Boateng unfit, Robinho unfit, van Bommel suspended. After you move the price for all those players (easily 0.3 of a goal or so there), you end up pretty much at market price.
Adnmdv in "football market is correct" shocker