Hellmuth Insurance

[77dave]

Was back watching some old HSP and PH wanted to take insurance in a pot against Eli.

35 mins in 

http://www.pokercast.tv/high-stakes-poker-s04e10

He works out the odds incorrectly then seeks insurance against the cards that cause him to lose the pot only.

River comes a chop and he doesn't pay out for the insurance premium, am i wrong here or should PH still pay out the $10k.

[gatso]

think no-one paying when there's a chop is standard isn't it?

confusion is that his calculations didn't allow for that but then they didn't allow for the 9 in eli's hand either

[TommyD]

Hellmuth insurance is the most tilting thing on TV Poker.

[tight4better]

Brandon Adams knew he worked the insurance out wrong so gave him 4/1, chop is always no action. He also said "I'm only betting jack or 9"

[SuuPRlim]

Brandon Adams knew he worked the insurance out wrong so gave him 4/1, chop is always no action. He also said "I'm only betting jack or 9"

yup

[77dave]

Brandon Adams knew he worked the insurance out wrong so gave him 4/1, chop is always no action. He also said "I'm only betting jack or 9"

yup

So PH offered 4-1 on odds which he believed to be at the time of 8/44

So what do we think of BA taking the 4/1 when 3.8/1 was offered knowing that the odds were in fact 7/38

[SuuPRlim]

I think it was a shrewd bet from BA because he's getting 8% juice.

[cambridgealex]

Its a shrewd bet but I dunno whether I'd do it, especially on tv, seems a tad harsh?

I'm not sure, I'm all for praying on peoples weakness in game but maybe I'd just tell them they'd got it wrong and be nice.

[SuuPRlim]

Its a shrewd bet but I dunno whether I'd do it, especially on tv, seems a tad harsh?

I'm not sure, I'm all for praying on peoples weakness in game but maybe I'd just tell them they'd got it wrong and be nice.

Obv I never played in one of these games with the big PH, but I think it's pretty stnd for him to offer 6-10% juice on insurance deals, I know in one series he had a deal with Phil Laak where he insta gets insurance whenever he wants it at for (I think) 8% juice. It seems a pretty common joke within the guys on how much of a clown he is with these insurance deals.

SO actually I don't think he got it wrong in the sense of he wasn't prepared to pay a hefty juice, he just made the mistake of not noticing a pretty important "dead" card so he insured against a card hitting which ofc couldn't hit, kind of stupid mistake but understandable in the heat of battle, and ofc BA notices and realises it makes the bet at 4-1 even better value than it would have been if PH had accounted for the dead car, so just jumps in whilst Farha is faffing around trying to get 38-10.

It's actually really stnd to pay a VIG in Hellmuth's shoes, think about it, he WANTS to insure and if its an even money deal there is no incentive for anyone to take the bet, stick 5% juice on there and suddenly you'll have plenty of people who want the action. There is a guy in L.A who pays 3% win or lose on even money flips just to make people flip vs him.

[MintTrav]

Farha knew Hellmuth only had 6 outs, cos he knew he had folded a 9. Adams almost certainly did too, cos when Farha folded, he first lifted his cards really high and open in front of his face and Adams seemed to be looking at them, so they were kinda exploiting the situation. Is it wise of Hellmuth to bet against people with more information than him? He might set it with someone who folded J9 for all he knows.

[77dave]

i remember once watching a final table at the WSOP that PH made, Ivey was in the crowd watching him and offering him insurance all his allins. I seem to remember PH cashing for about $60k but ended up owing Ivey more than that due to all the insurance payments.