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Author Topic: Marc wright WSOP action  (Read 22262 times)
George2Loose
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« Reply #15 on: June 02, 2012, 07:09:48 PM »

Good decision IMO mate
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cambridgealex
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« Reply #16 on: June 02, 2012, 07:09:58 PM »

RUPERT 18%
G2L 2%

Sorry to those who wanted action etc, alot of people asked me to semi reserve it etc, and i would of loved to of sold action to every1, but it would of meant me having -%0 of myself lol.

I considered doing an auction on here, but felt like i was following the trend too hard!



Should've done auction mate. Would've sold for sold for way higher. And only the biggest fanboys get a piece Cheesy

Is my 5 for the main we spoke about not booked then? Sad
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titaniumbean
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« Reply #17 on: June 02, 2012, 07:22:32 PM »

Im selling at 1.4, which is higher than i have ever sold at before, and although it may seem high (even to me), the many people i have spoken to about this matter all think my ROI in this package is likely to be HUGE. I have looked on 2+2 and people whom i would consider less experienced than me and have worse profiles than me have been selling at 1.5+ !


think 1.7 would have been fair to backers still tbh.


at 1.4 I would have bought a large chunk. I think you would and should still have sold out if you had sold at 2.

GL anyway.
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titaniumbean
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« Reply #18 on: June 02, 2012, 07:22:51 PM »

zomg twat
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smashedagain
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« Reply #19 on: June 02, 2012, 07:54:01 PM »

Why not try selling at 2.0.  ?
Probably have to wait 10 mins for it to sell out but you'd love the sweat  Smiley
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Amatay
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« Reply #20 on: June 02, 2012, 08:56:06 PM »

reserve 3 for amatay

this booked mate?
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« Reply #21 on: June 02, 2012, 10:31:31 PM »

reserve 3 for amatay

this booked mate?

Doubt it mate, rupert rested it before cos (and me grr) posted
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SuuPRlim
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« Reply #22 on: June 02, 2012, 10:47:23 PM »

think 1.7 would have been fair to backers still tbh.


at 1.4 I would have bought a large chunk. I think you would and should still have sold out if you had sold at 2.

GL anyway.


Are you ill? 1.7 fair? 2.0 is a good deal?

No offence to Marc whatsoever as he is well aware I think his game is superb but there is no way 2.0 is anything like fair, Ivey + Mercier would be bad buys at 2 and I don't even think it's close.

For 1.7 to be "fair" then Marc has to expect this package to return a profit of about $50,000 (PROFIT) even with the main event I think that's a stretch.
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smashedagain
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« Reply #23 on: June 02, 2012, 10:57:17 PM »

think 1.7 would have been fair to backers still tbh.


at 1.4 I would have bought a large chunk. I think you would and should still have sold out if you had sold at 2.

GL anyway.


Are you ill? 1.7 fair? 2.0 is a good deal?

No offence to Marc whatsoever as he is well aware I think his game is superb but there is no way 2.0 is anything like fair, Ivey + Mercier would be bad buys at 2 and I don't even think it's close.

For 1.7 to be "fair" then Marc has to expect this package to return a profit of about $50,000 (PROFIT) even with the main event I think that's a stretch.
Dave could you take 2 mins to explain why 1.7 has to return $50k profit? Please show working outs as well. Ty
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« Reply #24 on: June 02, 2012, 11:03:15 PM »

His roi is probably close to 100% in those comps no? Therefore 2.0 is b/e for backers.
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GreekStein
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« Reply #25 on: June 02, 2012, 11:17:33 PM »

think 1.7 would have been fair to backers still tbh.


at 1.4 I would have bought a large chunk. I think you would and should still have sold out if you had sold at 2.

GL anyway.


Are you ill? 1.7 fair? 2.0 is a good deal?

No offence to Marc whatsoever as he is well aware I think his game is superb but there is no way 2.0 is anything like fair, Ivey + Mercier would be bad buys at 2 and I don't even think it's close.

For 1.7 to be "fair" then Marc has to expect this package to return a profit of about $50,000 (PROFIT) even with the main event I think that's a stretch.

pretty sure you'd make money at 2.0 buying in mercier and ivey
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titaniumbean
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« Reply #26 on: June 02, 2012, 11:18:54 PM »

think 1.7 would have been fair to backers still tbh.


at 1.4 I would have bought a large chunk. I think you would and should still have sold out if you had sold at 2.

GL anyway.


Are you ill? 1.7 fair? 2.0 is a good deal?

No offence to Marc whatsoever as he is well aware I think his game is superb but there is no way 2.0 is anything like fair, Ivey + Mercier would be bad buys at 2 and I don't even think it's close.

For 1.7 to be "fair" then Marc has to expect this package to return a profit of about $50,000 (PROFIT) even with the main event I think that's a stretch.


explain exactly what each persons ROI is......

if you cant you have to guess. if most peoples guesses are based on nothing but thin air then considering the level of interest in his action he could sell at a much higher markup.


also I don't think fair is the right word in the sense it is subjective and everyone can have a different idea of what fair is.


is the markup people are willing to pay the fairest when it turns their investment to b/e. who is it fair to when it is either side of breakeven?

given that the person is selling imo it should always be below the b/e point but considering the markups Marc has charged for online even given his winrate and compared to that which other people regularly charge (and sell out at) online I think he could both go higher on his online action and most definitely on live action at the busy wsop donk fest.


I would disagree that it's not close for Ivey et al. Remember how impossible it will be to ever workout actual winrates for live donkfests.


Marc if you're reading this lower your markup more innit :p
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SuuPRlim
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« Reply #27 on: June 02, 2012, 11:34:25 PM »

if his ROI is 100% then buying at 2.0 is not a good deal.

lets say package = $10k. ROI of 100%, expected value of package $20k, you buy 10% for $2k you are not making money, the player gets to enjoy 100% of his profit without taking the risk and the investors flip off at even money.

So really with a 100% ROI, you'd wanna be paying a premium of MAX 40% for it to be classified as a "GOOD" deal. If you wanna punt it around then buying high is fine (and what I do most of the time I buy pieces)

pretty sure you'd make money at 2.0 buying in mercier and ivey

you'd make a few %'s prolly yh. but buying in loads of different people at 1.2 would be miles more profitable imo.

Pretty pointless de-rail as he's sold at 1.4 which seems like a perfectly fine price to me Smiley but he sold out in 16 seconds so Im gonna de-rail away!
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« Reply #28 on: June 02, 2012, 11:42:35 PM »

think 1.7 would have been fair to backers still tbh.


at 1.4 I would have bought a large chunk. I think you would and should still have sold out if you had sold at 2.

GL anyway.


Are you ill? 1.7 fair? 2.0 is a good deal?

No offence to Marc whatsoever as he is well aware I think his game is superb but there is no way 2.0 is anything like fair, Ivey + Mercier would be bad buys at 2 and I don't even think it's close.

For 1.7 to be "fair" then Marc has to expect this package to return a profit of about $50,000 (PROFIT) even with the main event I think that's a stretch.

pretty sure you'd make money at 2.0 buying in mercier and ivey

Sharkscope does ROIs for live events now, obviously very small samples but Mercier 81%, Ivey 226%.  WSOPs make up a big chunk of that sample.

Looked up a few randoms (and they were pretty random)

Annette 15 -50%, Toby Lewis -52%, John Eames -16% (though doesn't include the one from the other night that made me think of his name), Shaun Deeb -43%

and from the old school, the back in form Phil Hellmuth is only +73%

FWIW James Dempsey wins the internet on +396%

FWIW I think Marc is value at 1.4, but not that many are, and I can't be having that the $5k he has put in is going to be full of donks.  And the WSOP isn't that easy any more either, sure you can still get joke easy tables, but you can get some pretty tough ones too.

This all doesn't mean he wouldn't have sold at 2.0, far worse players manage to sell at 2 as the herbinator always reminds us.
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« Reply #29 on: June 03, 2012, 12:48:37 AM »

obviously the mu is skewed by the fact it is wsop, and especially when people are selling for the ME.

I was just talking about it in terms of for Marc and considering his WR and the speed with which he can sell out.

The market itself has to determine at what rate people don't even buy and what % lower than the horses BE point they are willing to invest at whilst remembering the amount of MU is all relative to what other people are/can selling at.

Anyway Dayvid stop de-raling the thread, do a blog post and reply to my pm ta. thumbs up
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