James Keys WSOP Main Event (auction)

[TightEnd]

Great effort, fine run, wp.

[DMorgan]

wp James, details the same as last time lmk on Skype if you need 'em again.

[luckyblind]

Great effort James! Looking forward to next one

[smashedagain]

Another fine roi. Wp

Actually fell 15% short of my predicted 300% roi.

Yeah shame on you. Not as short as some of those that sold higher tho. Pity there is not anything as detailed as OPR for live players and the hendonmob and the fact people believe that these comps are ridic soft are the only things we have to go on. I have a feeling you are gonna final the wsope if you can bother to go.

[pleno1]

Sucks you ran so bad. Wpretty sure would have been over 300% if you ran normal

[DMorgan]

Another fine roi. Wp

Actually fell 15% short of my predicted 300% roi.

Yeah shame on you. Not as short as some of those that sold higher tho. Pity there is not anything as detailed as OPR for live players and the hendonmob and the fact people believe that these comps are ridic soft are the only things we have to go on. I have a feeling you are gonna final the wsope if you can bother to go.

Yeah I'm sure backers all over the world put up hundreds of millions of dollars based on their hunch that WSOP tournaments might be soft.

[smashedagain]

Don't they not all say that the main event is one of the softest comps Dan. Pretty sure it is a dam site easier to negotiate than the super 50 at Dtd That I am setting off for

[Doobs]

Don't they not all say that the main event is one of the softest comps Dan. Pretty sure it is a dam site easier to negotiate than the super 50 at Dtd That I am setting off for

If they all think the main event is softer than the super 50 they would be all wrong.  There are clearly soft spots in the main event, but there aren't more than in the super 50 and the tough spots in the main event are going to be way tougher.

People usually overestimate the softness of the wsop events.  Probs no surprise given the circumstances where they do so.

Ofc the plo8 is the exception that proves the rule.

[The Camel]

Don't they not all say that the main event is one of the softest comps Dan. Pretty sure it is a dam site easier to negotiate than the super 50 at Dtd That I am setting off for

If they all think the main event is softer than the super 50 they would be all wrong.  There are clearly soft spots in the main event, but there aren't more than in the super 50 and the tough spots in the main event are going to be way tougher.

People usually overestimate the softness of the wsop events.  Probs no surprise given the circumstances where they do so.

Ofc the plo8 is the exception that proves the rule.

The table draw is absolutely crucial for the Main Event.

The year I went deep I didn't face a good player who had position on me throughout the 6 days I was in.

My expected ROI was probably somewhere north of 500%

The year afterwards, my starting table included Phil Galfond, Ed Moncada, 2 members of Team Pokerstars Online and a couple of Internet wizards.

I was definitely -ev on that table.

[pokerfan]

Don't they not all say that the main event is one of the softest comps Dan. Pretty sure it is a dam site easier to negotiate than the super 50 at Dtd That I am setting off for

If they all think the main event is softer than the super 50 they would be all wrong.  There are clearly soft spots in the main event, but there aren't more than in the super 50 and the tough spots in the main event are going to be way tougher.

People usually overestimate the softness of the wsop events.  Probs no surprise given the circumstances where they do so.

Ofc the plo8 is the exception that proves the rule.

The table draw is absolutely crucial for the Main Event.

The year I went deep I didn't face a good player who had position on me throughout the 6 days I was in.

My expected ROI was probably somewhere north of 500%

The year afterwards, my starting table included Phil Galfond, Ed Moncada, 2 members of Team Pokerstars Online and a couple of Internet wizards.

I was definitely -ev on that table.

I struggled with some of the mark ups this year for that reason, table draw is everything in this.
2 lads that sold on here got bad day 1 draws and didn't see the day out, both are good poker players too.
Does the amount of value in the comp outweigh this Keith ?

Obv some people are value no matter who they draw.

[DMorgan]

fwiw from talking on breaks etc I think the team ran pretty terrible with table draws.

For a table to be 'bad' in the main I'd say you'd need at least two other good aggro players, only one or two complete whales and the rest being competent I'd say that represents <5% of tables on day 1, probably rising to 10-15% on day 2. Even then it can be ok if the good aggro guys are a few seats to your right and you have one of the whales on your right too.

I'd say that your 'average' day one table will have 3 or 4 players that require darvin moon rungood to even cash.

[skolsuper]

Forgot to say it's gonna take me a couple of weeks to get the cash into ££ in your accounts sry.

RE: the ROI debate, it's easy to forget there are 6000 runners in this comp and therefore it is absolutely ridic high variance. On day 2 when I finished with 234k chips, that was roughly 0.1% of the chips in play. If you equate that to a 0.1% chance of me finishing in 1st place (not a stretch, in fact a conservative estimate), that gives me an expectation of $8.5k just from the times I win the tournament, even though it's still a 999/1 shot. Add in just the other final table positions and a big chunk of my equity is only realised a v small % of the time.

Fortunately the variance is very much reduced by it being ridiculously soft and such a slow structure. It would be selection bias if I were to say how often I have cashed this tournament or point to players who have cashed it 3 in a row or 6 out of 10 times or whatever, but it would be an interesting experiment if we were to crowdsource say 100 players who we think are 'good' and see how many of them cash the main next year, or pick 20 players and track it over 5 years. I would bet on it being over 20% if I agree with the player selections. If I were to suggest only a few players that I have played with extensively and I 'know' are good +ev players, I would pick:

Me
Keith
Mitch
Stato
Giblin
Rupert
Toby
Brammer
Jake
George
Alex
Dan Morgan
Marc Wright

I would definitely bet on the above listed players to cash more often than 1 in 5, so basically you're freerolling the big binks if you buy a piece or swap with a wide selection of good players. In fact with some names in that list I would bet on more than 1 in 4, but I'll leave it up to you to guess which ones. Sorry to anyone I left out...

[henrik777]

Forgot to say it's gonna take me a couple of weeks to get the cash into ££ in your accounts sry.

No worries.

Sandy

[GreekStein]

Forgot to say it's gonna take me a couple of weeks to get the cash into ££ in your accounts sry.

RE: the ROI debate, it's easy to forget there are 6000 runners in this comp and therefore it is absolutely ridic high variance. On day 2 when I finished with 234k chips, that was roughly 0.1% of the chips in play. If you equate that to a 0.1% chance of me finishing in 1st place (not a stretch, in fact a conservative estimate), that gives me an expectation of $8.5k just from the times I win the tournament, even though it's still a 999/1 shot. Add in just the other final table positions and a big chunk of my equity is only realised a v small % of the time.

Fortunately the variance is very much reduced by it being ridiculously soft and such a slow structure. It would be selection bias if I were to say how often I have cashed this tournament or point to players who have cashed it 3 in a row or 6 out of 10 times or whatever, but it would be an interesting experiment if we were to crowdsource say 100 players who we think are 'good' and see how many of them cash the main next year, or pick 20 players and track it over 5 years. I would bet on it being over 20% if I agree with the player selections. If I were to suggest only a few players that I have played with extensively and I 'know' are good +ev players, I would pick:

Me
Keith
Mitch
Stato
Giblin
Rupert
Toby
Brammer
Jake
George
Alex
Dan Morgan
Marc Wright

I would definitely bet on the above listed players to cash more often than 1 in 5, so basically you're freerolling the big binks if you buy a piece or swap with a wide selection of good players. In fact with some names in that list I would bet on more than 1 in 4, but I'll leave it up to you to guess which ones. Sorry to anyone I left out...

you wrote all that just to tilt Alex.

wp

[skolsuper]

Forgot to say it's gonna take me a couple of weeks to get the cash into ££ in your accounts sry.

RE: the ROI debate, it's easy to forget there are 6000 runners in this comp and therefore it is absolutely ridic high variance. On day 2 when I finished with 234k chips, that was roughly 0.1% of the chips in play. If you equate that to a 0.1% chance of me finishing in 1st place (not a stretch, in fact a conservative estimate), that gives me an expectation of $8.5k just from the times I win the tournament, even though it's still a 999/1 shot. Add in just the other final table positions and a big chunk of my equity is only realised a v small % of the time.

Fortunately the variance is very much reduced by it being ridiculously soft and such a slow structure. It would be selection bias if I were to say how often I have cashed this tournament or point to players who have cashed it 3 in a row or 6 out of 10 times or whatever, but it would be an interesting experiment if we were to crowdsource say 100 players who we think are 'good' and see how many of them cash the main next year, or pick 20 players and track it over 5 years. I would bet on it being over 20% if I agree with the player selections. If I were to suggest only a few players that I have played with extensively and I 'know' are good +ev players, I would pick:

Me
Keith
Mitch
Stato
Giblin
Rupert
Toby
Brammer
Jake
George
Alex
Dan Morgan
Marc Wright

I would definitely bet on the above listed players to cash more often than 1 in 5, so basically you're freerolling the big binks if you buy a piece or swap with a wide selection of good players. In fact with some names in that list I would bet on more than 1 in 4, but I'll leave it up to you to guess which ones. Sorry to anyone I left out...

you wrote all that just to tilt Alex.

wp

Wut? Alex is on there, just realised I left off Deadman tho. Hopefully he hasn't figured out how to find the other boards yet...