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Author Topic: James Keys WSOP Main Event (auction)  (Read 18904 times)
cambridgealex
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« Reply #90 on: July 15, 2012, 10:24:59 PM »

Thigh's not impressed
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MPOWER
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« Reply #91 on: July 15, 2012, 11:33:22 PM »

Forgot to say it's gonna take me a couple of weeks to get the cash into ££ in your accounts sry.

RE: the ROI debate, it's easy to forget there are 6000 runners in this comp and therefore it is absolutely ridic high variance. On day 2 when I finished with 234k chips, that was roughly 0.1% of the chips in play. If you equate that to a 0.1% chance of me finishing in 1st place (not a stretch, in fact a conservative estimate), that gives me an expectation of $8.5k just from the times I win the tournament, even though it's still a 999/1 shot. Add in just the other final table positions and a big chunk of my equity is only realised a v small % of the time.

Fortunately the variance is very much reduced by it being ridiculously soft and such a slow structure. It would be selection bias if I were to say how often I have cashed this tournament or point to players who have cashed it 3 in a row or 6 out of 10 times or whatever, but it would be an interesting experiment if we were to crowdsource say 100 players who we think are 'good' and see how many of them cash the main next year, or pick 20 players and track it over 5 years. I would bet on it being over 20% if I agree with the player selections. If I were to suggest only a few players that I have played with extensively and I 'know' are good +ev players, I would pick:

Me
Keith
Mitch
Stato
Giblin
Rupert
Toby
Brammer
Jake
George
Alex
Dan Morgan
Marc Wright

I would definitely bet on the above listed players to cash more often than 1 in 5, so basically you're freerolling the big binks if you buy a piece or swap with a wide selection of good players. In fact with some names in that list I would bet on more than 1 in 4, but I'll leave it up to you to guess which ones. Sorry to anyone I left out...

Well done in the main event.

Why does it take a couple of weeks to pay out please to the % folk?

If i want to buy a car i'll just ship instant online. The money is there off it goes.   

Regards

M
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KarmaDope
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« Reply #92 on: July 15, 2012, 11:34:59 PM »

I assume people are paid by cheque, so Keys would have to fly to the UK, then bank the cheque, wait for it to clear etc.
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The Camel
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« Reply #93 on: July 15, 2012, 11:35:20 PM »

Don't they not all say that the main event is one of the softest comps Dan. Pretty sure it is a dam site easier to negotiate than the super 50 at Dtd That I am setting off for

If they all think the main event is softer than the super 50 they would be all wrong.  There are clearly soft spots in the main event, but there aren't more than in the super 50 and the tough spots in the main event are going to be way tougher.

People usually overestimate the softness of the wsop events.  Probs no surprise given the circumstances where they do so.

Ofc the plo8 is the exception that proves the rule.

The table draw is absolutely crucial for the Main Event.

The year I went deep I didn't face a good player who had position on me throughout the 6 days I was in.

My expected ROI was probably somewhere north of 500%

The year afterwards, my starting table included Phil Galfond, Ed Moncada, 2 members of Team Pokerstars Online and a couple of Internet wizards.

I was definitely -ev on that table.


I struggled with some of the mark ups this year for that reason, table draw is everything in this.
2 lads that sold on here got bad day 1 draws and didn't see the day out, both are good poker players too.
Does the amount of value in the comp outweigh this Keith ?

Obv some people are value no matter who they draw.


I think 1.5 is a very fair mark up for a solid winning player with plenty of live experience.

Some of the play is almost unbelievably bad.

However, as with all things, there is a tendency for playrs to over value their expected value. But almost all players do that in every tournament they play obv!

« Last Edit: July 15, 2012, 11:39:30 PM by The Camel » Logged

Congratulations to the 2012 League Champion - Stapleton Atheists

"Keith The Camel, a true champion!" - Brent Horner 30th December 2012

"I dont think you're a wanker Keith" David Nicholson 4th March 2013
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« Reply #94 on: July 15, 2012, 11:44:19 PM »

Forgot to say it's gonna take me a couple of weeks to get the cash into ££ in your accounts sry.

RE: the ROI debate, it's easy to forget there are 6000 runners in this comp and therefore it is absolutely ridic high variance. On day 2 when I finished with 234k chips, that was roughly 0.1% of the chips in play. If you equate that to a 0.1% chance of me finishing in 1st place (not a stretch, in fact a conservative estimate), that gives me an expectation of $8.5k just from the times I win the tournament, even though it's still a 999/1 shot. Add in just the other final table positions and a big chunk of my equity is only realised a v small % of the time.

Fortunately the variance is very much reduced by it being ridiculously soft and such a slow structure. It would be selection bias if I were to say how often I have cashed this tournament or point to players who have cashed it 3 in a row or 6 out of 10 times or whatever, but it would be an interesting experiment if we were to crowdsource say 100 players who we think are 'good' and see how many of them cash the main next year, or pick 20 players and track it over 5 years. I would bet on it being over 20% if I agree with the player selections. If I were to suggest only a few players that I have played with extensively and I 'know' are good +ev players, I would pick:

Me
Keith
Mitch
Stato
Giblin
Rupert
Toby
Brammer
Jake
George
Alex
Dan Morgan
Marc Wright

I would definitely bet on the above listed players to cash more often than 1 in 5, so basically you're freerolling the big binks if you buy a piece or swap with a wide selection of good players. In fact with some names in that list I would bet on more than 1 in 4, but I'll leave it up to you to guess which ones. Sorry to anyone I left out...

Well done in the main event.

Why does it take a couple of weeks to pay out please to the % folk?

If i want to buy a car i'll just ship instant online. The money is there off it goes.   

Regards

M

What is your problem?  What is going on with this forum?  Are you an investor in this stake?  Is it any of your business?  Are you the person who sent PMs accusing a well known blonde of "not trying" last year just before he binked $100k?  The same person who started slating another in Marcs thread.  I really would like to know if you just sit around, waiting for an opportunity to get a sly dig in or find a thread you can de-rail

Just go and get a life.  You are the worst type of troll I have seen for a long time and this forum - I don't give a s**t how long you have been posting on here...would be a better place without you.  Absolute joker.

Regards S
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GreekStein
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« Reply #95 on: July 15, 2012, 11:46:39 PM »

Forgot to say it's gonna take me a couple of weeks to get the cash into ££ in your accounts sry.

RE: the ROI debate, it's easy to forget there are 6000 runners in this comp and therefore it is absolutely ridic high variance. On day 2 when I finished with 234k chips, that was roughly 0.1% of the chips in play. If you equate that to a 0.1% chance of me finishing in 1st place (not a stretch, in fact a conservative estimate), that gives me an expectation of $8.5k just from the times I win the tournament, even though it's still a 999/1 shot. Add in just the other final table positions and a big chunk of my equity is only realised a v small % of the time.

Fortunately the variance is very much reduced by it being ridiculously soft and such a slow structure. It would be selection bias if I were to say how often I have cashed this tournament or point to players who have cashed it 3 in a row or 6 out of 10 times or whatever, but it would be an interesting experiment if we were to crowdsource say 100 players who we think are 'good' and see how many of them cash the main next year, or pick 20 players and track it over 5 years. I would bet on it being over 20% if I agree with the player selections. If I were to suggest only a few players that I have played with extensively and I 'know' are good +ev players, I would pick:

Me
Keith
Mitch
Stato
Giblin
Rupert
Toby
Brammer
Jake
George
Alex
Dan Morgan
Marc Wright

I would definitely bet on the above listed players to cash more often than 1 in 5, so basically you're freerolling the big binks if you buy a piece or swap with a wide selection of good players. In fact with some names in that list I would bet on more than 1 in 4, but I'll leave it up to you to guess which ones. Sorry to anyone I left out...

Well done in the main event.

Why does it take a couple of weeks to pay out please to the % folk?

If i want to buy a car i'll just ship instant online. The money is there off it goes.   

Regards

M

What is your problem?  What is going on with this forum?  Are you an investor in this stake?  Is it any of your business?  Are you the person who sent PMs accusing a well known blonde of "not trying" last year just before he binked $100k?  The same person who started slating another in Marcs thread.  I really would like to know if you just sit around, waiting for an opportunity to get a sly dig in or find a thread you can de-rail

Just go and get a life.  You are the worst type of troll I have seen for a long time and this forum - I don't give a s**t how long you have been posting on here...would be a better place without you.  Absolute joker.

Regards S

What a great post.

Glad someone said it Shaun.

Regards C
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The Camel
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« Reply #96 on: July 15, 2012, 11:53:45 PM »

Don't they not all say that the main event is one of the softest comps Dan. Pretty sure it is a dam site easier to negotiate than the super 50 at Dtd That I am setting off for

If they all think the main event is softer than the super 50 they would be all wrong.  There are clearly soft spots in the main event, but there aren't more than in the super 50 and the tough spots in the main event are going to be way tougher.

People usually overestimate the softness of the wsop events.  Probs no surprise given the circumstances where they do so.

Ofc the plo8 is the exception that proves the rule.

The table draw is absolutely crucial for the Main Event.

The year I went deep I didn't face a good player who had position on me throughout the 6 days I was in.

My expected ROI was probably somewhere north of 500%

The year afterwards, my starting table included Phil Galfond, Ed Moncada, 2 members of Team Pokerstars Online and a couple of Internet wizards.

I was definitely -ev on that table.


I struggled with some of the mark ups this year for that reason, table draw is everything in this.
2 lads that sold on here got bad day 1 draws and didn't see the day out, both are good poker players too.
Does the amount of value in the comp outweigh this Keith ?

Obv some people are value no matter who they draw.


I think 1.5 is a very fair mark up for a solid winning player with plenty of live experience.

Some of the play is almost unbelievably bad.

However, as with all things, there is a tendency for playrs to over value their expected value. But almost all players do that in every tournament they play obv!



It's got to be remembered though.. for someone to be value at 1.5, their expected ROI should be approaching 2.

Obviously you are more likey to get value from someone at spot, because there are alot more players with a 1.5  ev than 2.0!
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Congratulations to the 2012 League Champion - Stapleton Atheists

"Keith The Camel, a true champion!" - Brent Horner 30th December 2012

"I dont think you're a wanker Keith" David Nicholson 4th March 2013
railtard1
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« Reply #97 on: July 16, 2012, 12:01:09 AM »

Forgot to say it's gonna take me a couple of weeks to get the cash into ££ in your accounts sry.

RE: the ROI debate, it's easy to forget there are 6000 runners in this comp and therefore it is absolutely ridic high variance. On day 2 when I finished with 234k chips, that was roughly 0.1% of the chips in play. If you equate that to a 0.1% chance of me finishing in 1st place (not a stretch, in fact a conservative estimate), that gives me an expectation of $8.5k just from the times I win the tournament, even though it's still a 999/1 shot. Add in just the other final table positions and a big chunk of my equity is only realised a v small % of the time.

Fortunately the variance is very much reduced by it being ridiculously soft and such a slow structure. It would be selection bias if I were to say how often I have cashed this tournament or point to players who have cashed it 3 in a row or 6 out of 10 times or whatever, but it would be an interesting experiment if we were to crowdsource say 100 players who we think are 'good' and see how many of them cash the main next year, or pick 20 players and track it over 5 years. I would bet on it being over 20% if I agree with the player selections. If I were to suggest only a few players that I have played with extensively and I 'know' are good +ev players, I would pick:

Me
Keith
Mitch
Stato
Giblin
Rupert
Toby
Brammer
Jake
George
Alex
Dan Morgan
Marc Wright

I would definitely bet on the above listed players to cash more often than 1 in 5, so basically you're freerolling the big binks if you buy a piece or swap with a wide selection of good players. In fact with some names in that list I would bet on more than 1 in 4, but I'll leave it up to you to guess which ones. Sorry to anyone I left out...

Well done in the main event.

Why does it take a couple of weeks to pay out please to the % folk?

If i want to buy a car i'll just ship instant online. The money is there off it goes.   

Regards

M

What is your problem?  What is going on with this forum?  Are you an investor in this stake?  Is it any of your business?  Are you the person who sent PMs accusing a well known blonde of "not trying" last year just before he binked $100k?  The same person who started slating another in Marcs thread.  I really would like to know if you just sit around, waiting for an opportunity to get a sly dig in or find a thread you can de-rail

Just go and get a life.  You are the worst type of troll I have seen for a long time and this forum - I don't give a s**t how long you have been posting on here...would be a better place without you.  Absolute joker.

Regards S
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MPOWER
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« Reply #98 on: July 16, 2012, 12:07:08 AM »

Forgot to say it's gonna take me a couple of weeks to get the cash into ££ in your accounts sry.

RE: the ROI debate, it's easy to forget there are 6000 runners in this comp and therefore it is absolutely ridic high variance. On day 2 when I finished with 234k chips, that was roughly 0.1% of the chips in play. If you equate that to a 0.1% chance of me finishing in 1st place (not a stretch, in fact a conservative estimate), that gives me an expectation of $8.5k just from the times I win the tournament, even though it's still a 999/1 shot. Add in just the other final table positions and a big chunk of my equity is only realised a v small % of the time.

Fortunately the variance is very much reduced by it being ridiculously soft and such a slow structure. It would be selection bias if I were to say how often I have cashed this tournament or point to players who have cashed it 3 in a row or 6 out of 10 times or whatever, but it would be an interesting experiment if we were to crowdsource say 100 players who we think are 'good' and see how many of them cash the main next year, or pick 20 players and track it over 5 years. I would bet on it being over 20% if I agree with the player selections. If I were to suggest only a few players that I have played with extensively and I 'know' are good +ev players, I would pick:

Me
Keith
Mitch
Stato
Giblin
Rupert
Toby
Brammer
Jake
George
Alex
Dan Morgan
Marc Wright

I would definitely bet on the above listed players to cash more often than 1 in 5, so basically you're freerolling the big binks if you buy a piece or swap with a wide selection of good players. In fact with some names in that list I would bet on more than 1 in 4, but I'll leave it up to you to guess which ones. Sorry to anyone I left out...

Well done in the main event.

Why does it take a couple of weeks to pay out please to the % folk?

If i want to buy a car i'll just ship instant online. The money is there off it goes.   

Regards

M

What is your problem?  What is going on with this forum?  Are you an investor in this stake?  Is it any of your business?  Are you the person who sent PMs accusing a well known blonde of "not trying" last year just before he binked $100k?  The same person who started slating another in Marcs thread.  I really would like to know if you just sit around, waiting for an opportunity to get a sly dig in or find a thread you can de-rail

Just go and get a life.  You are the worst type of troll I have seen for a long time and this forum - I don't give a s**t how long you have been posting on here...would be a better place without you.  Absolute joker.

Regards S

Sorry you are the last person to join the party of what is right or wrong!

Regards

M
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railtard1
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« Reply #99 on: July 16, 2012, 12:14:15 AM »

Forgot to say it's gonna take me a couple of weeks to get the cash into ££ in your accounts sry.

RE: the ROI debate, it's easy to forget there are 6000 runners in this comp and therefore it is absolutely ridic high variance. On day 2 when I finished with 234k chips, that was roughly 0.1% of the chips in play. If you equate that to a 0.1% chance of me finishing in 1st place (not a stretch, in fact a conservative estimate), that gives me an expectation of $8.5k just from the times I win the tournament, even though it's still a 999/1 shot. Add in just the other final table positions and a big chunk of my equity is only realised a v small % of the time.

Fortunately the variance is very much reduced by it being ridiculously soft and such a slow structure. It would be selection bias if I were to say how often I have cashed this tournament or point to players who have cashed it 3 in a row or 6 out of 10 times or whatever, but it would be an interesting experiment if we were to crowdsource say 100 players who we think are 'good' and see how many of them cash the main next year, or pick 20 players and track it over 5 years. I would bet on it being over 20% if I agree with the player selections. If I were to suggest only a few players that I have played with extensively and I 'know' are good +ev players, I would pick:

Me
Keith
Mitch
Stato
Giblin
Rupert
Toby
Brammer
Jake
George
Alex
Dan Morgan
Marc Wright

I would definitely bet on the above listed players to cash more often than 1 in 5, so basically you're freerolling the big binks if you buy a piece or swap with a wide selection of good players. In fact with some names in that list I would bet on more than 1 in 4, but I'll leave it up to you to guess which ones. Sorry to anyone I left out...

Well done in the main event.

Why does it take a couple of weeks to pay out please to the % folk?

If i want to buy a car i'll just ship instant online. The money is there off it goes.   

Regards

M

What is your problem?  What is going on with this forum?  Are you an investor in this stake?  Is it any of your business?  Are you the person who sent PMs accusing a well known blonde of "not trying" last year just before he binked $100k?  The same person who started slating another in Marcs thread.  I really would like to know if you just sit around, waiting for an opportunity to get a sly dig in or find a thread you can de-rail

Just go and get a life.  You are the worst type of troll I have seen for a long time and this forum - I don't give a s**t how long you have been posting on here...would be a better place without you.  Absolute joker.

Regards S

Sorry you are the last person to join the party of what is right or wrong!

Regards

M

blah. was just agreeing with shaun. Seemed a remark regarding james integrity. And if u didnt have a piece, it seemed like u had no real place to question how long it may take him to pay.
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GreekStein
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« Reply #100 on: July 16, 2012, 12:15:07 AM »

Forgot to say it's gonna take me a couple of weeks to get the cash into ££ in your accounts sry.

RE: the ROI debate, it's easy to forget there are 6000 runners in this comp and therefore it is absolutely ridic high variance. On day 2 when I finished with 234k chips, that was roughly 0.1% of the chips in play. If you equate that to a 0.1% chance of me finishing in 1st place (not a stretch, in fact a conservative estimate), that gives me an expectation of $8.5k just from the times I win the tournament, even though it's still a 999/1 shot. Add in just the other final table positions and a big chunk of my equity is only realised a v small % of the time.

Fortunately the variance is very much reduced by it being ridiculously soft and such a slow structure. It would be selection bias if I were to say how often I have cashed this tournament or point to players who have cashed it 3 in a row or 6 out of 10 times or whatever, but it would be an interesting experiment if we were to crowdsource say 100 players who we think are 'good' and see how many of them cash the main next year, or pick 20 players and track it over 5 years. I would bet on it being over 20% if I agree with the player selections. If I were to suggest only a few players that I have played with extensively and I 'know' are good +ev players, I would pick:

Me
Keith
Mitch
Stato
Giblin
Rupert
Toby
Brammer
Jake
George
Alex
Dan Morgan
Marc Wright

I would definitely bet on the above listed players to cash more often than 1 in 5, so basically you're freerolling the big binks if you buy a piece or swap with a wide selection of good players. In fact with some names in that list I would bet on more than 1 in 4, but I'll leave it up to you to guess which ones. Sorry to anyone I left out...

Well done in the main event.

Why does it take a couple of weeks to pay out please to the % folk?

If i want to buy a car i'll just ship instant online. The money is there off it goes.   

Regards

M

What is your problem?  What is going on with this forum?  Are you an investor in this stake?  Is it any of your business?  Are you the person who sent PMs accusing a well known blonde of "not trying" last year just before he binked $100k?  The same person who started slating another in Marcs thread.  I really would like to know if you just sit around, waiting for an opportunity to get a sly dig in or find a thread you can de-rail

Just go and get a life.  You are the worst type of troll I have seen for a long time and this forum - I don't give a s**t how long you have been posting on here...would be a better place without you.  Absolute joker.

Regards S

Sorry you are the last person to join the party of what is right or wrong!

Regards

M

Railtard > You in the blonde community ainec.
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paulhouk03
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« Reply #101 on: July 16, 2012, 12:19:26 AM »

Are you human mpower?
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« Reply #102 on: July 16, 2012, 02:41:38 AM »

Don't they not all say that the main event is one of the softest comps Dan. Pretty sure it is a dam site easier to negotiate than the super 50 at Dtd That I am setting off for

If they all think the main event is softer than the super 50 they would be all wrong.  There are clearly soft spots in the main event, but there aren't more than in the super 50 and the tough spots in the main event are going to be way tougher.

People usually overestimate the softness of the wsop events.  Probs no surprise given the circumstances where they do so.

Ofc the plo8 is the exception that proves the rule.
Just chopped the super 50. Fucking knew I should have played the wsop main this year Sad
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« Reply #103 on: July 16, 2012, 03:12:25 AM »

Well done in the main event.

Why does it take a couple of weeks to pay out please to the % folk?

If i want to buy a car i'll just ship instant online. The money is there off it goes.   

Regards

M

I couldn't send their share of the WSOP cash online instantly because the dollars wouldn't fit into my cd drive.

To those actually interested in the process:

I haven't yet collected the money from the rio because the bank isn't open today and I don't want the cash lying around.
Tomorrow I will collect the money and go to the bank and deposit it into my account (I have a US bank account which comes in very handy)
I will then transfer the money to a forex company who send £££ to my uk bank account.
Once that arrives I will send out the transfers to the backers.

The above process will actually probably only take 5-7 working days, but I said a couple of weeks to be safe. Also I am staying in Vegas until Saturday and therefore don't want to send out all my dollars before I know how much I'll need for the coming week (I'll be playing cash). Rather than do 2 transfers and double the transaction costs I will just wait until Friday to send what dollars I have in one go, however if anyone is genuinely in need of their money in a hurry I can move it forward a few days.
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« Reply #104 on: July 16, 2012, 07:16:25 AM »

Personally I'm fine pay when u get back James ,bank transfer or cash on your way to dtd

Have a great rest of time in Vegas ,wish I was still there as well
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